
B/R's Week 1 2020 Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
This season's fantasy football drafts are a thing of the past, and trades can now be a big part of the equation, especially for those who aren't happy with how their drafts unfolded.
Each week, Bleacher Report will analyze some of our readers' toughest trade proposals and provide feedback. Some of the analysis will be roster-specific, but overall we'll try to provide information that is useful to all fantasy fans.
Just How Valuable Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
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Let's kick things off with a look at one of the stars from Thursday night. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire showed just what sort of role he's going to have moving forward after putting up 138 yards and a TD on 25 carries.
He could easily post numbers similar to those of Kareem Hunt when he was a rookie playing under Andy Reid three years ago: 1,327 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Jordan Howard will be sharing the load with Matt Breida for the Dolphins, and there will be some weeks when he's best left on the bench. Also, Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring injury and could miss Week 1.
"He's got 1,000 reps already for this game, the whole camp. So it'll just be a game-time decision," head coach Bruce Arians said, per ESPN's Jenna Laine.
Evans should still be plenty valuable moving forward, but hamstring issues can linger.
Verdict: Keep Edwards-Helaire
Josh Jacobs Is Elite
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BouyantMarlon also noted they have great receiver depth.
You might think Todd Gurley and Michael Gallup—a 1,000-yard receiver in 2019—are more valuable than Josh Jacobs.
While Gurley surely won't be the dominant dual-threat back he was earlier in his career, he could be in store for a bounce-back season. However, Jacobs is on another tier, with The Athletic's Vic Tafur telling CBS Sports HQ: "When he wasn't Rookie of the Year, I think Jon [Gruden] took it personally. Jon was upset about it. I think he wants to make people realize they made a big mistake."
Jacobs amassed 1,316 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in just 13 games as a rookie. Provided he isn't bitten by the injury bug this season, he should contend for the rushing title. He is a legitimate RB1 and worth picking up if possible.
Verdict: Trade for Jacobs
Ezekiel Elliott Is Still a Fantasy Centerpiece
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As is the case with Josh Jacobs, Ezekiel Elliott is a first-rounder. Even with Tony Pollard stealing some occasional carries, he's the centerpiece of the Dallas offense.
Elliott has topped 1,300 rushing yards every year in which he has played at least 15 games. He's also caught 131 passes over the last two seasons. While Le'Veon Bell could theoretically have a bounce-back season in his second year with the Jets, Brian Costello of the New York Post noted:
"Bell has not had an impressive training camp. Anyone who has watched practice over the past two weeks would have Bell ranked third among the running backs, with Frank Gore and rookie La'Mical Perine ahead of him if they were being honest."
While Hopkins might be the same target-dominant fantasy star that he was in Houston, that's not a guarantee. In Houston, Hopkins was often the only reliable wideout on the field. In Arizona, he'll be playing alongside Christian Kirk and the ageless Larry Fitzgerald.
Odell Beckham Jr., meanwhile, should be in store for a bounce-back season with the Browns after being hampered for much of 2019 with a sports hernia.
Verdict: Trade for Elliott and Beckham
Ben Roethlisberger Is a Boom-or-Bust Candidate
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Daniel Jones has fantasy upside, and with weapons like Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley, he could break out in 2020. However, I'm not parting with Carson Wentz, a viable MVP candidate if healthy, to gamble on him.
Also, while Ben Roethlisberger might return to the 5,000-yard form he had in 2018, there's no guaranteeing it. He's 38 and coming off an elbow injury that required surgery.
Roethlisberger is going to be one of the biggest boom-or-bust candidates in fantasy this season. He's worth gambling on, but only if you have a reliable second option.
Wentz is that sort of reliable option. He passed for 4,039 yards and 27 touchdowns last season while rushing for 243 and another score. Jones might top those numbers, but he's no sure thing.
You don't want to turn to the waiver wire for a quarterback because both of your gambles failed to pay off. Consider revisiting this trade after getting a better look at Big Ben's return.
Verdict: Keep Wentz
Is Austin Ekeler Primed for Fantasy Stardom?
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This involves two backs in committee situations, and while both are expected to be starters in 2020, there's a stark contrast in their values.
Austin Ekeler, who caught 92 passes in 2019, is a points-per-reception (PPR) machine. Raheem Mostert, who has just 20 career receptions, is not. This makes Ekeler the hands-down better choice in PPR formats, and it also means he'll be on the field more for those managing him in standard-scoring leagues.
While Mostert will be sharing time with receiving backs Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman, Ekeler is going to stay on the field for passing downs.
As for the tight ends, we could be looking at close to a wash. Ertz is a major piece of the Eagles' passing attack, but Noah Fant could be in store for a second-year leap. The key for him will be finding consistency, as he had two games with more than 100 yards and seven with fewer than 20 in Denver last season.
Ertz, meanwhile, is frustrated with his contract situation and could become trade bait before the deadline—the presence of Dallas Goedert makes a trade something the Eagles could swallow.
"I don't know for sure if that feeling is mutual," Ertz said about wanting to remain an Eagle, per NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano.
If Ertz ends up elsewhere, his fantasy value could plummet. While it's probably a long shot now, it's a possibility that can't be ignored.
Verdict: Trade for Ekeler and Fant
Just How Valuable Will Joe Mixon Be in 2020?
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Here, mahwah33 doesn't make clear what the rest of their roster looks like, which could change the complexion of this trade.
George Kittle is a top-two tight end. He's a big-time upgrade over Jared Cook, though Cook—705 yards and nine touchdowns last season—is a starting-caliber option.
Joe Mixon, meanwhile, is a borderline first-round fantasy talent. Even with one of the league's worst offenses around him, he finished with 1,424 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in 2019. With Joe Burrow at quarterback and A.J. Green healthy, he should have more running room.
CeeDee Lamb, on the other hand, is a complete unknown. Just as importantly, he's playing in an offense that already has two 1,000-yard receivers. He's a boom-or-bust option, while Mixon is a high-floor producer.
This deal only makes sense if you're extremely deep at running back and also don't need help at receiver. Lamb could be a steal if he replaces Amari Cooper as Dallas' No. 1 receiver, but he could also prove to be a throw-in on a Mixon and Cook for Kittle deal.
Verdict: Take Mixon and Cook
Beware of Sony Michel and an Unpredictable Patriots Backfield
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For the quarterback portion of this trade, it's going to come down to whether you have a reliable second option. I like the upside of Ben Roethlisberger far more than the safe, steady potential of Jimmy Garoppolo, but it's important to be prepared for the possibility that Big Ben flops.
The more interesting aspect involves Le'Veon Bell and Sony Michel. I'm not particularly high on either back, but Bell's likely workload gives him the edge—and this is usually going to be the case with middle-tier backs.
Yes, Bell will be sharing the load with 37-year-old Frank Gore, but he's likely to remain the primary receiving back. While Bell wasn't the same guy he was with the Steelers, he still caught 66 passes and had 1,250 scrimmage yards. He's likely to have a similar workload.
Michel, meanwhile, will be splitting time with receiving backs James White and Rex Burkhead. He could also lose carries to Damien Harris if/when he's activated from injured reserve. Additionally, Michel could lose goal-line opportunities to quarterback Cam Newton.
Bell might not be a star this year, but he's going to see more opportunities as a runner and a receiver than Michel.
Verdict: Take Roethlisberger and Bell
Beware of Leonard Fournette and an Unpredictable Buccaneers Backfield
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Here's another trade where workload should be the difference-maker. On the surface, Dalvin Cook is a better PPR value than Josh Jacobs. I've already discussed Jacobs' value for the season, but Cook wins out in the upside department. He racked up 1,654 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns in 14 games a year ago.
What pushes this trade in the favor of the Jacobs side is the inclusion of DeVante Parker. He is the Dolphins' No. 1 receiver and is likely to approach the 1,202 receiving yards he had a year ago.
I'm not convinced that Leonard Fournette will be the starter for the Buccaneers or will even have a significant workload with Ronald Jones II, LeSean McCoy and rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn also on the roster.
Parker is far closer to a sure thing than Fournette. This lack of a guaranteed workload—along with Cook's notable injury history—makes the duo of Jacobs and Parker the better option.
Upside is great, but it's not enough here.
Verdict: Keep Jacobs and Parker
Quick Hits
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Let's run down a few quick-hitters to close out Week 1.
owen_22_witt asks: Give up Nick Chubb and Brandin Cooks for Amari Cooper and David Montgomery?
While Brandin Cooks only had two catches and 20 yards for the Texans on Thursday, I believe he can be a 1,000-yard receiver this season. However, he isn't as valuable as Amari Cooper. The thing that makes this a deal-breaker, though, is giving up Nick Chubb.
Sure, David Montgomery can be a fine starting back for the Bears, but both he and Chubb will be in time-share situations. However, Chubb, who ranked second in the league in rushing last season, is still a borderline first-rounder. Montgomery is a tier or two below that, especially with the Mitchell Trubisky-led offense likely to see frequent eight-man fronts this season.
Verdict: Keep Chubb and Cooks
Tyrell27 asks: Chubb for Godwin straight up?
Here's an instance where I'd be less hesitant to deal Chubb. Chris Godwin emerged as one of the NFL's best receivers last season, and he's likely to maintain a high level of PPR value with Tom Brady under center.
Chubb, meanwhile, will give up PPR opportunities to backup Kareem Hunt rather frequently. Therefore, while I do still view Chubb as an RB1, he isn't quite in the same category as Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. Godwin could vie with the likes of Michael Thomas and Julio Jones to be the best receiver in fantasy. If you're deep at running back, I'd make the deal.
Verdict: Trade for Godwin
RagaMuffin asks: Mattison for Dobbins? We both have each others' starting RBs.
This is an interesting one, as it's centered around the starter-handcuff relationship. RagaMuffin has Mark Ingram in the starting lineup and is looking to deal for backup J.K. Dobbins. The potential trade partner has Dalvin Cook stating and could use Alexander Mattison as a handcuff.
It's usually best to get your own handcuff whenever possible, though in this instance, I'd prefer to keep Mattison for pure handcuff purposes. Cook has a more extensive injury history than Ingram, and the Ravens are loaded at running back.
On Baltimore's initial depth chart, Dobbins is listed behind Ingram, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With Lamar Jackson also cutting into the rushing workload, Dobbins may only occasionally see the field until/unless Ingram is injured.
Verdict: Keep Mattison
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