Way-Too-Early Predictions for the Top 2021 MLB Free Agents
If it seems a little early to be looking ahead to the 2020-21 Major League Baseball free-agent market, that's because it is. The regular season isn't even over yet.
Still, we thought we'd get a head start on predicting which teams will claim the top talents.
Ahead are our preliminary projections for where this winter's top 20 free agents will ultimately land. This involved trying to match players' abilities with teams that figure to be in the market for said abilities. Though the league's financial situation is admittedly tricky right now, we also considered teams' likely budgets.
We'll start with some honorable mentions and then count 'em down.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 21
Hitters
- Jackie Bradley Jr., CF
- Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL
- Howie Kendrick, INF
- Brad Miller, UTIL
- Jonathan Villar, UTIL
Pitchers
- Alex Colome, RHP
- Kevin Gausman, SP
- Ken Giles, RHP
- Jake Odorizzi, SP
- James Paxton, SP
- Jose Quintana, SP
- Robbie Ray, SP
- Garrett Richards, SP
- Blake Treinen, RHP
- Taijuan Walker, SP
- Brandon Workman, RHP
20. Kirby Yates, RHP
2 of 21
2021 Age: 34
2020 WAR: Minus-0.3
Kirby Yates was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2018 and 2019, across which he mustered a 1.67 ERA with a 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 125 appearances.
Alas, his bubble finally burst this season. Yates surrendered six runs through six appearances and then had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. In all likelihood, his season is over.
By way of this lost year and his relatively advanced age, Yates may have to settle for looking at one-year offers on the open market. If so, it wouldn't be surprising if he simply returned to the San Diego Padres.
But if there's one club that might swoop in and buy low on him, it could be the Seattle Mariners. They're going to need to improve a woeful bullpen, and Yates himself may like the idea of joining an ascendant contender, not unlike the team he's on right now.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
19. Mike Minor, SP
3 of 21
2021 Age: 33
2020 WAR: Minus-0.1
The Texas Rangers raised eyebrows when they signed Mike Minor, who had spent the previous season working as a reliever, as a starter in 2017.
By 2019, however, Minor was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished the season with a 3.59 ERA over 208.1 innings, the totality of which equated to an MLB-high 7.8 WAR.
Minor's encore has been...not great. He struggled to get into a rhythm after the long layoff and is now trending toward a dud of a year with a 6.35 ERA. Yet teams will surely be interested in him as a buy-low candidate, especially given that the spin on his fastball remains elite.
You know which team historically likes pitchers with high-spin fastballs? The Houston Astros. If they were to get Minor back into ace-like shape, he, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke would be quite the rotation trio for 2021.
Prediction: Houston Astros
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18. Andrelton Simmons, SS
4 of 21
2021 Age: 31
2020 WAR: 0.3
Andrelton Simmons' bat is arguably underrated. Though he's only a .269 career hitter, he's hitting .287 this season. That's in line with his solid .280 average since 2016.
Yet it's obviously Simmons' glove that's made him a star. He's a four-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop, and his 193 defensive runs saved since 2012 are by far the most of any defender.
Simmons is now on the wrong side of 30, however, and he's had trouble keeping his ankles healthy in the last two seasons. As such, it may be a red flag that he only has zero DRS this year.
Still, all it takes is one team that's desperate for a defensive upgrade at shortstop. This winter, that could be the New York Yankees. Gleyber Torres hasn't looked so hot at the position, so the Yankees could be keen on moving him back to second and placing Simmons' glove at short.
Prediction: New York Yankees
17. Tommy La Stella, UTIL
5 of 21
2021 Age: 32
2020 WAR: 0.2
With the Chicago Cubs, Tommy La Stella was a generally useful but largely inconsequential role player.
He's transformed himself since landing with the Los Angeles Angels via trade in 2018. He was an All-Star last season, and that year and this year are marked by a 121 OPS+ and 21 home runs in 121 games.
La Stella is mainly a second baseman, but he can also play third base and first base in a pinch. Surely, a player with that kind of glove and such a capable bat should have plenty of fits on the offseason market.
The best would be with the Washington Nationals. La Stella could begin the year keeping second base warm for Luis Garcia, who evidently needs more seasoning in the minors. Once Garcia is up to speed, La Stella could shift to alternating between third and first.
Prediction: Washington Nationals
16. Jonathan Schoop, 2B
6 of 21
2021 Age: 29
2020 WAR: 1.0
At his peak in 2017, Jonathan Schoop was an All-Star who finished with a 124 OPS+, 32 home runs and 6.3 WAR.
He's not that guy anymore, but 2019 and 2020 are proof that he's still an above-average offensive second baseman. That's especially true this year as he's rocking a 113 OPS+ and eight homers.
This winter, Schoop should do better than the initial one-year, $6.1 million contract that landed him with the Detroit Tigers. But due to his relatively limited upside, he should nonetheless be affordable for clubs that don't typically go big in free agency.
Cleveland, for example, could take a liking to Schoop. Its second basemen have hit only two homers this year. Assuming Francisco Lindor isn't traded, remedying that would help the club make the most of the star shortstop's final year under team control.
Prediction: Cleveland
15. Justin Turner, 3B
7 of 21
2021 Age: 36
2020 WAR: 0.8
Justin Turner was mighty good for the Los Angeles Dodgers between 2014 and 2019, averaging a 139 OPS+, 19 home runs and 4.6 WAR per season.
It now looks like the veteran third baseman is finally running out of gas. He has only a 116 OPS+ and two homers, and he's missed time with a hamstring injury. However, his expected metrics—including an xwOBA in the 95th percentile—say he's still an elite hitter.
It's possible that Turner will stick in Los Angeles this winter. But if the Dodgers go in another direction, he would make sense for an American League club that could play him at third and designated hitter.
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now at first base and with only a .634 OPS coming from the hot corner, the Toronto Blue Jays would fit the bill. Plus, Turner might like the idea of reuniting with former teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
14. Shane Greene, RHP
8 of 21
2021 Age: 32
2020 WAR: 1.3
At a time when missing bats is a must-have skill for relief pitchers, Shane Greene is mowing 'em down without racking up strikeouts.
Indeed, it's easy to be skeptical of how he's managed a 1.19 ERA despite only having 18 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. But whereas most relievers throw only two pitches with confidence, Greene has four: sinker, cutter, slider and changeup.
This approach is making him tough to square up as only three of 58 batted balls off him have registered as a "barrel."
Some teams may still shy away from Greene, but the Chicago White Sox might like him as a replacement for fellow free-agent-to-be Alex Colome. The latter isn't much of a whiff artist in his own right, yet the metrics suggest Chicago would be upgrading if it swapped him out for Greene.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
13. Joc Pederson, OF
9 of 21
2021 Age: 29
2020 WAR: 0.1
For most of his tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Joc Pederson has been a steady presence in the outfield and a producer of outstanding power numbers.
In 2018 and 2019, especially, Pederson stood apart with a 126 OPS+ and 61 total long balls. It's therefore been disappointing to watch him post an 82 OPS+ and six homers in 2020.
Because he still has youth working for him, Pederson might pull a Marcell Ozuna and look for a one-year pillow contract this winter. There could be many teams interested in a deal like that, particularly given that he is at least maintaining an exit velocity in the 91st percentile.
The New York Yankees might work for Pederson. They love sluggers, and they could offer him a starting job in left field and the chance to regularly take aim at Yankee Stadium's short right field porch.
Prediction: New York Yankees
12. Didi Gregorius, SS
10 of 21
2021 Age: 31
2020 WAR: 0.6
Didi Gregorius never really got back in the swing of things after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2019, in which he had just an 87 OPS+ and minus-10 defensive runs saved.
He is more or less back to normal now. Offensively, he has a 119 OPS+ and seven home runs. And while his DRS is still below par, his mark of minus-two at least qualifies him as "playable" at shortstop.
Gregorius should be in for a better deal than the one-year, $14 million contract that landed him with the Philadelphia Phillies last winter. Maybe the dollars won't change, but the years likely will.
With Andrelton Simmons also set to become a free agent, the Los Angeles Angels might like the idea of adding Gregorius as a replacement. They'd obviously lose something on defense, but they frankly need another left-handed bat in their lineup.
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
11. Liam Hendriks, RHP
11 of 21
2021 Age: 32
2020 WAR: 1.2
Liam Hendriks couldn't hack it as a starter, and then he put up a good-not-great 3.69 ERA as a reliever between 2015 and 2018.
In the last two seasons, however, Hendriks has boosted his fastball velocity and racked up 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA has plummeted to 1.71 over 95 total appearances.
Had Kirby Yates enjoyed a healthy and productive season in 2020, Hendriks would have been slated to be only the second-best relief pitcher on the market. Now there's little question he'll be the top reliever available, and he should be rewarded as such.
Especially if the Philadelphia Phillies come calling. They've been sparing no expense in their pursuit of a championship, so they may be willing to bet big on Hendriks as the solution for a bullpen that currently bears an MLB-worst 7.27 ERA.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
10. Michael Brantley, LF
12 of 21
2021 Age: 34
2020 WAR: 1.1
Here's a complete list of hitters who've taken no fewer than 3,000 plate appearances and hit at least .310 with an OPS+ no worse than 125 since 2014:
- Jose Altuve
- Michael Brantley
In 2020, Brantley is going about as strong as ever with a .304/.370/.512 slash line. But due to his age and his checkered injury history, he's probably going to be treated as a second-level star on the offseason market.
That would probably be just fine with the Astros, who stand to lose Brantley, Josh Reddick and George Springer to free agency this winter. At least one of them should be brought back, and Brantley will represent their best shot at paying a modest price for star-caliber production.
Prediction: Houston Astros
9. Nelson Cruz, DH
13 of 21
2021 Age: 40
2020 WAR: 1.7
Way back in the winter of 2013, Nelson Cruz was creeping into his mid-30s and coming off a suspension resulting from MLB's Biogenesis investigation. By all rights, his career should have been on its last legs.
Not so much. Cruz averaged a 146 OPS+ and 41 home runs per year between 2014 and 2019, and he's still overpowering pitchers with an MLB-high 194 OPS+ and 16 home runs in 2020.
Cruz is strictly a designated hitter, which could limit his market to American League clubs if the National League saves the universal DH for the next collective bargaining agreement. Plus, he may be fine right where he's at.
Though the Minnesota Twins haven't yet signed Cruz for 2021, it's been on their minds in the past. They certainly can't afford to lose him, and the man himself may see no better place to chase a ring.
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
8. Masahiro Tanaka, SP
14 of 21
2021 Age: 32
2020 WAR: 0.7
Masahiro Tanaka is just about at the end of the seven-year, $155 million contract he signed with the New York Yankees back in January 2014.
There have been more than a few ups and downs along the way, but the deal has ultimately paid off for New York. Indeed, it's still paying off. Tanaka has arguably upstaged $324 million ace Gerrit Cole in 2020, putting up a 3.16 ERA through eight starts.
In theory, Tanaka stands to be a major attraction in the offseason market. But because of his age and the partially torn UCL in his pitching arm, teams might be wary of committing too much to him.
If any team is going to be the exception, it'll probably be the one he's on now. The Yankees clearly know how to handle Tanaka, and their rotation frankly can't afford to lose him.
Prediction: New York Yankees
7. Marcus Stroman, SP
15 of 21
2021 Age: 30
2020 WAR: DNP
Marcus Stroman began this season on the injured list and, come Aug. 10, decided not to risk playing at all in 2020.
Stroman had pitched like one of the best hurlers in baseball in two of the previous three seasons. He authored a 3.09 ERA over 201 innings in 2017 and then responded to a down season in 2018 with a 3.22 ERA over 184.1 innings in 2019.
Some teams may be turned off by not having a recent body of work by which to judge Stroman's value. Others, though, may simply see a well-rested pitcher with a tried-and-true talent for generating ground balls.
To the latter end, nobody is turning ground balls into outs right now like the Chicago Cubs. And with Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood and potentially Jon Lester ticketed for free agency, they should have the room and money to sign Stroman this winter.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
6. Marcus Semien, SS
16 of 21
2021 Age: 30
2020 WAR: 0.3
Right now, it's fair to ask what kind of player Marcus Semien is.
He was one of the best players in baseball last year as he turned himself into an AL MVP finalist with a 139 OPS+, 33 home runs and 8.9 WAR. But he's otherwise been a below-average hitter, including this year to the tune of an 87 OPS+ and just six homers.
It's doubtful that a down season such as this will make Semien go looking for a one-year pillow deal. But he might insist on signing something with an early opt-out or two, just in case he reestablishes himself as an MVP-caliber star.
Nick Castellanos' contract is proof that the Cincinnati Reds are comfortable doing such deals. It also happens they badly need an upgrade at shortstop, so Semien may well find a home with them this winter.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
5. DJ LeMahieu, INF
17 of 21
2021 Age: 32
2020 WAR: 1.9
In fairness to the naysayers, the notion that DJ LeMahieu wouldn't hit away from Coors Field had merit. Between 2012 and 2018, he had an .834 OPS at home and a .681 OPS on the road.
But in two seasons with the New York Yankees, LeMahieu has sent that notion up in smoke. In 182 total games, he's a .332/.379/.522 hitter with 32 home runs.
Even though he's on the wrong side of 30, LeMahieu figures to be one of the most sought-after players on the winter market. And while he can play third base and first base, he'd fit best with a team that merely needs him at second.
The Philadelphia Phillies, for example, already have a weakness at second base. And if they lose J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius to free agency, their lineup will have need of an especially big bat.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
4. Marcell Ozuna, OF
18 of 21
2021 Age: 30
2020 WAR: 1.6
Like Josh Donaldson before him, Marcell Ozuna has gone to Atlanta on a one-year deal and boosted his stock significantly.
In the wake of a 107 OPS+ and 52 home runs in two seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, Ozuna is rocking a 161 OPS+ and 14 homers this year. Further, his peripheral metrics—i.e., his 97th percentile hard-hit rate—are just as impressive.
Ozuna should be able to find a lucrative multiyear deal in free agency this time around. If he doesn't make it to nine figures, he should at least come close.
Out of all the teams that might do such a deal, the most intriguing dark horse is the Miami Marlins. Assuming Ozuna has no hard feelings about being traded in 2017, he might return to Miami if the Marlins pitch him on being one of the central stars of a fast-rising contender.
Prediction: Miami Marlins
3. George Springer, OF
19 of 21
2021 Age: 31
2020 WAR: 0.8
George Springer's free agency is going to be...interesting.
For seven years, he's been one of the Houston Astros' cornerstone stars. He's been frequently great and occasionally so much more than that, as in when he posted a 150 OPS+, 39 home runs and 6.4 WAR in only 122 games last season.
The catch is threefold: Springer is nearly 31, he's often been banged up, and he's slipped to a 119 OPS+ and nine homers in 2020. If he doesn't take a chance with a one-year deal, then a team will have to take a big chance by signing him to a heavy multiyear contract.
In any case, he would make sense for the Washington Nationals. If this season has revealed anything, it's that they badly need an impact right-handed hitter to fill the hole left by Anthony Rendon.
Prediction: Washington Nationals
2. Trevor Bauer, SP
20 of 21
2021 Age: 30
2020 WAR: 2.0
In theory, Trevor Bauer could set out to land a multiyear deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars this winter.
Though he's had his trials since breaking through in 2012, he's pitched like a true No. 1 starter in two of the last three seasons. In 2018, he had a 2.21 ERA over 175.1 innings. This year, he has a 1.74 ERA and 71 strikeouts through 51.2 innings.
But in keeping with his iconoclastic nature, Bauer has said he's only going to be signing one-year contracts. If he holds to that, he'll interest only win-now clubs with deep pockets and holes in their rotations.
No team fits the bill like the Los Angeles Angels, whose starters have had a rough couple of seasons. Were they to sign Bauer, who's originally from Los Angeles, he and Dylan Bundy would make for an excellent one-two punch in 2021.
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
1. J.T. Realmuto, C
21 of 21
2021 Age: 30
2020 WAR: 1.3
No position on the diamond is more important than catcher. And right now, J.T. Realmuto is the best there is.
He's generally been an above-average hitter throughout his career, and he's been that and more with a 119 OPS+ and 57 home runs since 2018. He's also a superior defender whose catch-and-throw times and framing (91st percentile in 2020) both rate as elite.
It's not often that catchers sign huge contracts in free agency, but Yasmani Grandal landed a four-year, $73 million deal on the open market just last winter. Realmuto should beat that by plenty.
As for where Realmuto could end up, the San Diego Padres might covet him as a fix for a position that's put out only a .598 OPS in 2020. And since they're only now opening a championship window that figures to be open for a long time, they may be willing to stretch their budget for Realmuto.
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, and are current through Sunday, Sept. 13.
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