NFL Picks Week 1: Reviewing Expert Predictions, Vegas Odds and Opening Schedule

It's been over seven months since the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, but in some ways, the wait has felt even longer.

This past NFL offseason has been unlike any other. Free agency opened just days after the COVID-19 pandemic brought about cancellations across the sporting world. There were questions about the feasibility of a virtual NFL draft, but proceedings went ahead without a hitch in April.

Sure, organized team activities were eliminated from the calendar and players were forced to find ways to put in work on their own, but the NFL remained steadfast in its belief the 2020 season would start on time.

The league canceled the preseason after initially shortening it from four games to two, but it would seem the precautionary measures put in place throughout the year have paid dividends.

The latest round of testing revealed just one player tested positive for COVID-19, with 24 confirmed cases since the start of camps on Aug. 12. In other words, all systems are go for Thursday night's season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans.

What will Week 1 have in store for football fans? Let's take a look at all 16 matchups, including odds and expert predictions. The expert predictions come via NFL Pickwatch, which consolidates expert picks from various entities. The percentages reflect the number of experts picking each winning team.

Week 1 Schedule, Odds and Expert Predictions   

(All odds via DraftKings)   

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

Date and Time: Thursday, Sept. 10 at 8:20 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Chiefs (97 percent)   

The defending Super Bowl champion returns 20 of 22 starters from last year's roster, and Patrick Mahomes and Co. should be hungry to get off to a strong start in front of a home crowd. Deshaun Watson and the Texans will likely need to score a lot to stay in the game, which might be tough as the quarterback begins life without wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.   

Pick: Chiefs

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Patriots (92 percent)

Cam Newton's debut for the Patriots comes against a Dolphins team that has split its last four meetings with New England. Miami's new-look defense could pose an interesting test for Newton, but the Dolphins simply won't have enough offense to get by a team that led the NFL in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) on the defensive side of the ball last year, per Football Outsiders.

Pick: Patriots

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Ravens (95 percent)

Reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson will be eager to get off the blocks in 2020, and the Ravens figure to blitz Cleveland in the running game. Baltimore's front seven, which now includes Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe, should also be an interesting matchup for the Browns' revamped offensive line. The Ravens are simply more well-rounded, though, and they should win the battle on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Ravens

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Bills (95 percent)

The Bills made a big play when they acquired star receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason, but their defense should win this one. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold will have to beat Buffalo in the passing game, which is a tough ask against a talented Bills secondary.

Pick: Bills

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Raiders (64) percent

The Raiders era in Sin City starts on the road, where they are likely to feed Josh Jacobs a heavy volume against an underwhelming Panthers front seven. This one could turn into a shootout if Teddy Bridgewater can move the ball against Las Vegas' secondary, but the Raiders will have just enough defense to get the job done.

Pick: Raiders

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Seahawks (86 percent)

The Seahawks might still have issues protecting Russell Wilson this year, but it should be easier against a Falcons defense that got few upgrades in the offseason aside from Dante Fowler Jr. On the flip side, Seattle has one of the most improved secondaries in the league in recent years and will keep Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Todd Gurley at bay.

Pick: Seahawks

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Washington Football Team

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Eagles (89 percent)

This one might have the makings of an upset. Washington's front seven, including No. 2 overall pick Chase Young, figures to cause trouble for Carson Wentz and the Eagles. But Washington quarterback Dwayne Haskins should be under equal duress from a tough Eagles front line. Haskins might lead an upset if he can exploit Philly's secondary, but the addition of star corner Darius Slay could be vital on Washington wideout Terry McLaurin.

Pick: Eagles

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Lions (72 percent)

Detroit is building some optimism with a healthy Matthew Stafford and a defense that added talent at every level by signing Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and Desmond Trufant. But the Bears have a pretty elite defense of their own, and Mitchell Trubisky could play some inspired football after winning the quarterback competition in Chicago.

Pick: Bears

Indianapolis Colts (-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Colts (97 percent)

New Colts quarterback Philip Rivers will lead a balanced offense against a defense that traded away stars such as Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and A.J. Bouye. It will also be interesting to see what kind of impact DeForest Buckner has on Indy's defensive front.

Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Vikings (58 percent)

The Packers replaced inside linebacker Blake Martinez with the oft-injured Christian Kirksey, and the Vikings are likely to pound the rock early and often with Dalvin Cook. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers might have some more time to throw with Vikings end Danielle Hunter on injured reserve. But Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr excel at dropping into coverage, and Rodgers is being forced to work with a shallow receiving corps.

Pick: Vikings

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:05 p.m. ET

Expert Predictions: Chargers (67 percent)

There are so many questions in this one: How will Joe Burrow fare in his debut? Can Tyrod Taylor replicate the success he had under Anthony Lynn in Buffalo? The Chargers should win this one if Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa get to Burrow. But the Chargers will miss Derwin James in the secondary, and Cincy's balanced attack might be enough to outlast its opponents.

Pick: Bengals

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET

Expert Predictions: Niners (95 percent)

The Niners are overwhelming favorites, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Cardinals put up a fight. Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray should show better chemistry in their second year together, and Arizona adds Hopkins and a full year of Kenyan Drake to the mix. Ultimately, though, the Cardinals still don't have enough defense to manage the different looks Kyle Shanahan and the Niners will throw at them.

Pick: 49ers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Saints (95 percent)

It's curious why so many experts see the Saints as clear favorites. Tampa Bay returns 11 starters to a defense that ranked sixth in DVOA last season. The Bucs also have Tom Brady under center, and the six-time Super Bowl champion has some of the best offensive weaponry he has had in his career. This could be a slugfest, but the veteran quarterback and the Bucs will come out on top, with Tampa Bay's front seven putting just enough pressure on Drew Brees to make him uncomfortable.

Pick: Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 8:20 p.m. ET

Expert Prediction: Cowboys (68 percent)

Both teams lost key starters on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, and it is possible this is one of the highest-scoring affairs of opening weekend. That serves Dallas well, as it can mix in a barrage of zone runs for Ezekiel Elliott while letting Dak Prescott explore his deep and diverse receiving corps. If Sean McVay can establish Cam Akers as a weapon, the Rams will have a chance, but L.A. seems somewhat one-dimensional entering its opening contest.

Pick: Cowboys

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at New York Giants

Date and Time: Monday, Sept. 14 at 7:15 p.m. ET

Expert Predictions: Steelers (92 percent)

Ben Roethlisberger should have plenty of opportunities to leave his mark against a weak Giants secondary after missing the entirety of the 2019 season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense—which led the league in takeaways last year—should pose a stiff test for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones as he looks to build on his rookie season.

Pick: Steelers

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

Date and Time: Monday, Sept. 14 at 10:10 p.m. ET

Expert Predictions: Titans (62 percent)

The Titans want to take the next step after coming up short in the AFC Championship Game last year, while the Broncos are hoping to establish themselves as sleepers in the AFC West. Rushing champion Derrick Henry will get his touches, but former Titans Pro Bowler Jurrell Casey and Bradley Chubb will each play a role in keeping him in check and getting to Ryan Tannehill. Denver has different options out wide and in the slot, and Drew Lock will have a big day to upend Tennessee.

Pick: Broncos

All stats obtained via Football Outsiders