Each MLB Team's Biggest X-Factor for the Stretch Run
The 2020 MLB season's stretch run has arrived and promises to be like nothing we've seen, with 16 playoff spots up for grabs.
For all 30 MLB clubs, one player stands out as a potential X-factor, and they come in all shapes and sizes.
An inconsistent player who could lock down a critical role with a strong finish. An injury returnee looking to make a splash. A young player on the rise. A veteran looking to ride a hot streak into October.
Ahead we've highlighted the one player who could make a real difference in his team's final push.
Let's start with a quick look at one young player from each non-contending club who could secure his place in the 2021 plans with a productive finish.
Up-and-Comers on AL Non-Contenders
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For AL teams with less than a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, the focus figures to be on the future. We highlighted one young player for each of those clubs who could play his way into the 2021 plans with a strong finish.
Boston Red Sox: 1B Bobby Dalbec
The 25-year-old has launched five home runs in his first 35 plate appearances after taking over as Boston's starting first baseman following the Mitch Moreland trade. On the flip side, he's also struck out 16 times for a staggering 45.7 percent strikeout rate. Anything he can do to mitigate those swing-and-miss red flags would be welcome.
Kansas City Royals: LHP Kris Bubic
Brady Singer entered the season with more hype, but Bubic has been the better of the team's two rookie starters. The 23-year-old pitched a career-high seven innings his last time out, and he could solidify his spot in the 2021 rotation this month.
Los Angeles Angels: RF Jo Adell
One of baseball's elite prospects entering the year, Adell is hitting just .180/.241/.300 in 108 plate appearances in the majors. He's gone hitless in 16 of his 28 games and has a 38.9 percent strikeout rate. He needs to show something over the final weeks to stake his claim to the starting right field job in 2021.
Seattle Mariners: IF Ty France
Acquired in the Austin Nola trade last month, France was blocked across the infield in San Diego and never received an extended look in the majors. The 26-year-old hit an absurd .399/.477/.770 with 27 doubles and 27 home runs in 76 games at Triple-A last year, and he's 7-for-21 in six games with the Mariners.
Texas Rangers: RHP Kyle Cody
A prospect on the rise in 2017 when he posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 136 strikeouts in 126 innings in Single-A and High-A, Cody missed most of 2018 and all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 6'7", 225-pound right-hander has middle-of-the-rotation upside, and he's pitched to a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 innings this year.
Up-and-Comers on NL Non-Contenders
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For NL teams with less than a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, the focus figures to be on the future. We highlighted one young player for each of those clubs who could play his way into the 2021 plans with a strong finish.
Arizona Diamondbacks: C/OF Daulton Varsho
A Swiss Army knife capable of playing catcher and all three outfield spots, Varsho has yet to show much offensively with a .143/.226/.286 line in 62 plate appearances. The 24-year-old hit .301/.378/.520 with 47 extra-base hits at Double-A last season, and MLB.com gave him a 55-grade hit tool, so the potential is there.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
MLB.com called Hayes one of the "best defensive prospects in the game at any position," so that will take some pressure off his bat. That said, he also has a 60-grade hit tool and is 8-for-24 with four extra-base hits in his first seven games. He could be Matt Chapman with a little less power and a little more batting average.
Washington Nationals: 2B Luis Garcia
In a surprise twist, Garcia has seen more playing time in his age-20 season than top prospect Carter Kieboom has for the Nationals this year. After a lackluster season at Double-A in 2019, Garcia has looked like he belongs with a .293 average and four doubles in 78 plate appearances. Is he up for good?
Atlanta Braves: RHP Ian Anderson
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With Mike Soroka out for the season because of a torn Achilles, Max Fried on the injured list with muscle spasms, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb both demoted, and Cole Hamels still sidelined with triceps trouble, the Atlanta Braves starting rotation is unrecognizable.
In their absence, Tommy Milone, Robbie Erlin, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright have all posted ERAs north of 7.00, and 11 pitchers have started at least one game this year.
If the playoffs started today, Josh Tomlin would probably be the Game 1 starter for Atlanta.
That makes rookie right-hander Ian Anderson an easy choice as the club's biggest X-factor for the stretch run and into the playoffs.
The 22-year-old was the No. 44 prospect in baseball at the start of the year, according to Baseball America, and he's thrown the ball extremely well since making his MLB debut Aug. 26.
In three starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings, and more of the same will put him in the postseason rotation.
Baltimore Orioles: 1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle
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The Baltimore Orioles are 8-8 with a plus-seven run differential in the 16 games that Ryan Mountcastle has seen his name penciled into the starting lineup this year.
That might not sound like much, but under this season's expanded playoff format, .500 baseball the rest of the way might be enough for the O's to sneak into the postseason.
Mountcastle, 23, is hitting .383/.441/.633 with three doubles, four home runs and 14 RBI in 68 plate appearances since making his MLB debut Aug. 21.
He hasn't exactly come out of nowhere as a 2015 first-round pick who hit .312/.344/.527 with 35 doubles and 25 home runs at Triple-A last year, but he has far exceeded expectations.
If he keeps swinging a hot bat, the Orioles might sneak into October.
Chicago Cubs: RHP Alec Mills
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The Chicago Cubs have the NL Cy Young front-runner in Yu Darvish and a reliable workhorse in Kyle Hendricks anchoring their starting rotation.
The other three spots on the staff are up in the air.
Tyler Chatwood (forearm) and Jose Quintana (lat) are on the injured list, Colin Rea was knocked around in a spot start last week, and veteran Jon Lester has a 9.26 ERA in his last five starts after logging a 1.06 ERA in his first three outings.
That leaves Alec Mills as the X-factor.
The 28-year-old started the season on a high note with consecutive quality starts, but he's been up and down since on his way to a 4.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 43.2 innings.
Last time out against the Cincinnati Reds, he allowed just four hits in six shutout innings, and he has a chance to solidify the No. 3 spot in the rotation if he can build off that performance.
Chicago White Sox: LHP Dallas Keuchel
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Signed to a three-year, $55.5 million contract during the offseason, Dallas Keuchel has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in his first year with the Chicago White Sox.
The 32-year-old is 6-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 53.1 innings, allowing just two home runs and a .219 opponents' batting average.
So why is he the biggest X-factor on the South Siders?
Keuchel left his most recent start with back stiffness, and he hit the injured list Thursday because of it. Barring any setbacks, he'll be eligible to return on Sept. 17.
Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning are both pitching well, but the experience that Keuchel brings alongside ace Lucas Giolito would be sorely missed if the back issues persist and he's unable to quickly return to the mound.
Cincinnati Reds: RF Nick Castellanos
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The Cincinnati Reds offense has scored just 24 runs in eight September games, hitting an MLB-worst .174 during that time.
So why single out Nick Castellanos?
The Reds are 10-5 in games in which he has an RBI, compared to 9-19 when he fails to drive in a run, and he's shown more than once in recent years that he's capable of single-handedly carrying an offense.
However, the 28-year-old is hitting just .091/.189/.273 with four RBI in his last 10 games.
The bullpen issues in Cincinnati have been well-documented, and the trade for Archie Bradley could go a long way down the stretch, but none of that will matter if the team doesn't score more.
Cleveland Indians: RHP Triston McKenzie
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Triston McKenzie started his MLB career with a bang Aug. 22, racking up 10 strikeouts while allowing just two hits and one run in six innings.
The 23-year-old has continued to impress in subsequent starts, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 21 innings over his first four outings.
However, some notable metrics have been trending in the wrong direction since his MLB debut, with Prospects 365 providing the following statistical breakdown of his average fastball velocity and swinging strike percentage on Twitter:
- 8/22: 94.5 mph, 23.9 percent
- 8/28: 93.3 mph, 10.7 percent
- 9/2: 92.7 mph, 11.4 percent
- 9/8: 92.4 mph, 8.5 percent
Even after trading Mike Clevinger, the Indians still have a deep stable of starting pitchers, but they're that much more dangerous if McKenzie continues pitching at an elite level.
Colorado Rockies: LHP Kyle Freeland
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After a dreadful season in which he struggled to a 6.73 ERA over 22 starts, Kyle Freeland had a lot to prove heading into 2020.
The 27-year-old came out of the gates with six straight quality starts, posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 37.2 innings during that stretch before he imploded.
Ugly starts on Aug. 28 (4.1 IP, 11 H, 4 ER) and Sept. 2 (2.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER) raised his ERA to 4.09, and the starting rotation was suddenly a glaring hole in Colorado once again.
He came around last time out with six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the San Diego Padres, and he'll need to avoid another rough path if the Rockies are going to snag a wild-card berth.
Detroit Tigers: RHP Casey Mize
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The fact that the Detroit Tigers are still in the hunt for a playoff spot when their starting pitchers have produced an unsightly 6.45 ERA—worst in the majors—shows that any sort of improvement in that area could make a world of difference.
So while it's tempting to go with recent call-up Daz Cameron or hot-hitting Jeimer Candelario as the team's biggest X-factor, it has to be someone from the starting rotation.
Matthew Boyd has the worst ERA (7.63) among qualified starters, Michael Fulmer has been even worse with an 8.24 ERA in seven starts and Jordan Zimmermann is more of a low-upside wild card than an X-factor in his return to action.
On the other hand, Casey Mize was one of the most polished college pitchers to come along in years when the Tigers selected him No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft. He steamrolled the competition in the minors last year, posting a 2.55 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 109.1 innings while reaching Double-A.
He's capable of far more than he's shown in logging a 6.75 ERA and failing to pitch beyond the fifth inning in each of his four starts.
If he can turn a corner, he'll quickly emerge as the ace of the staff.
Houston Astros: RHP Jose Urquidy
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With Justin Verlander (forearm) and Lance McCullers Jr. (neck) on the injured list and Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley pitching elsewhere, the Houston Astros starting rotation is almost unrecognizable behind ace Zack Greinke.
Framber Valdez (52.1 IP, 3.61 ERA) and Cristian Javier (42.2 IP, 3.38 ERA) have both pitched well, but can they be counted on in October?
To that point, Javier has a 5.38 FIP backing his strong surface-level numbers, and Valdez was shelled for 11 hits and eight earned runs in his most recent start.
This is why Jose Urquidy has a chance to make a huge impact, despite getting a late start following a positive COVID-19 test.
The 25-year-old made his season debut Sept. 5, and while there will be some rust to shake off, he could once again pitch his way into the postseason picture with a strong stretch run.
A year ago, he pitched well enough as a September call-up to earn a spot on the playoff roster, and he ended up starting Game 4 of the World Series when he allowed just two hits in five scoreless innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in baseball with a 32-12 record and a staggering plus-101 run differential.
Imagine how much better they'd be if Cody Bellinger was playing up to his potential.
The reigning NL MVP is hitting .210/.293/.426 with a 92 OPS+, and he's just 3-for-24 with zero extra-base hits since the calendar flipped to September.
He did show signs of life at the end of August, hitting .341/.438/.854 with six home runs and 11 RBI in an 11-game stretch to close out the month.
If he can regain that form—or even something close to it—in time for October, the team to beat will become that much more dangerous.
Miami Marlins: RF Lewis Brinson
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With a .240 team batting average and .700 OPS, the Miami Marlins have struggled to consistently score runs at times this season.
The pitching staff has been quietly effective, and top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Trevor Rogers have provided a nice boost to the rotation, but the offense needs to pull its weight if the Marlins are going to reach the postseason.
That makes this the perfect time for Lewis Brinson to get hot.
The longtime top prospect was hitting .161/.257/.194 with 11 strikeouts in 35 plate appearances on Aug. 25, and it looked like he might be running out of chances to prove himself in the majors after similarly struggling the past two seasons.
In his last 12 games, he's batting .321/.345/.607 with two doubles and two home runs in 29 plate appearances, making a strong case for regular playing time alongside Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte in the Miami outfield.
The five-tool talent is still there; the issue has always been making enough contact to put those tools to use. It's a small sample size, but things seem to be clicking.
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Jedd Gyorko
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A red-hot Jedd Gyorko convinced the Milwaukee Brewers front office to part ways with Justin Smoak, and he'll continue to serve in a primary run-production role down the stretch.
In his last 17 games, Gyorko is hitting .326/.415/.783 with seven home runs and 12 RBI, and he was penciled into the cleanup spot on Tuesday and Wednesday.
His 173 OPS+ ranks 14th among players with at least 50 plate appearances on the year, and Christian Yelich (113) and Keston Hiura (106) are the only other players on the roster who fulfill that criteria and are producing above a league-average rate.
That one-year, $2 million deal that Gyorko signed during the offseason has a chance to be one of the best bargains of 2020 if he can keep it rolling at the plate.
Minnesota Twins: OF/DH Brent Rooker
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No one would have guessed at the start of the season that the Minnesota Twins would be looking for an offensive boost down the stretch, but that's the position they found themselves in when Brent Rooker was added to the MLB roster last week.
A 6'3", 225-pound slugger who was the No. 35 pick in the 2017 draft, Rooker posted a .933 OPS with 14 home runs in 65 games at Triple-A last season.
The 25-year-old has been thrown into the thick of things, hitting seventh in his MLB debut on Sept. 4 before moving into the cleanup spot in his second game. He's since been slotted third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the lineup.
All told, in 19 plate appearances spanning six games, he's batting .278/.316/.500 with one double, one home run and five RBI.
With Max Kepler (adductor strain) and Mitch Garver (intercostal strain) on the injured list, and everyone outside Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and Josh Donaldson putting up middling numbers at the plate, Rooker has a chance to make a significant impact for a team eyeing a deep playoff run.
New York Mets: RHP Seth Lugo
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Jacob deGrom has a 1.69 ERA in 48 innings over eight starts this season.
The rest of the New York Mets starting pitchers—Rick Porcello, David Peterson, Michael Wacha, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Corey Oswalt, Walker Lockett and Ariel Jurado—have combined for a 6.88 ERA in 141.1 innings.
Excluded from that list is Seth Lugo.
One of baseball's most effective relievers in 2019, Lugo posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with 104 strikeouts in 80 innings over 61 appearances.
The starter-turned-reliever was in the bullpen to begin the 2020 campaign, but he moved back into the rotation Aug. 25 and has a 1.54 ERA in 11.2 innings in his first three starts.
He allowed four hits and one run while striking out eight in a season-high five innings last time out as he continues to build up his arm, and there's a real chance he'll be the team's No. 2 starter in the postseason if the Mets can secure a spot.
New York Yankees: SS Gleyber Torres
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The questions remain about who would start Game 3 and Game 4 of a playoff series for the New York Yankees behind Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka.
However, offense has been a more pressing issue during the team's recent struggles.
The Yankees are hitting .204/.311/.331 and averaging 4.0 runs in 10 games this month, scoring three or fewer runs five times during that stretch.
A healthy Gleyber Torres could provide a much-needed spark after he missed 13 games with a hamstring injury.
He was just 2-for-11 in his first four games back after returning Sept. 5, but he went 2-for-5 with a double and a home run on Wednesday, helping the Yankees snap a five-game losing streak.
"He's been getting into good counts, deep into counts," manager Aaron Boone told reporters. "Tonight he finally got some results."
Getting him back to producing at the level that saw him launch 38 home runs a year ago would go a long way for the sputtering Yankees.
Oakland Athletics: 2B Tommy La Stella
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The leadoff spot in the Oakland Athletics lineup has posted an ugly .294 on-base percentage (26th in MLB) and .714 OPS (20th in MLB).
Deadline pickup Tommy La Stella has moved into the No. 1 spot in the batting order the last five games, and he's 7-for-21 with three doubles and four runs scored during that span.
The 31-year-old has a .360 on-base percentage with more than twice as many walks (17) as strikeouts (8) in 151 plate appearances, so while he may not have prototypical speed, he fits well as a table-setter.
With Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty returning to action, La Stella will be setting the table for a more complete Oakland lineup, and his ability to get on base could be the key to the offense over the final weeks.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Jake Arrieta
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The Philadelphia Phillies have one of baseball's best one-two punches this season with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, making them a dangerous draw if they can clinch a postseason berth.
However, the rest of the starting rotation has been inconsistent at best:
- Zach Eflin: 7 GS, 4.58 ERA
- Jake Arrieta: 7 GS, 5.67 ERA
- Spencer Howard: 5 GS, 5.66 ERA
- Vince Velasquez: 4 GS, 5.82 ERA
At least one pitcher from that group will need to improve if they are going to make a playoff run, and Arrieta has the experience to be that No. 3 starter in October.
In his last start, he allowed seven hits and two earned runs while pitching a season-high seven innings against the New York Mets, and that could serve as a jumping off point for a strong finish.
San Diego Padres: 1B Mitch Moreland
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Mitch Moreland looked like a luxury when the San Diego Padres first acquired him from the Boston Red Sox at the trade deadline.
With incumbent first baseman Eric Hosmer landing on the injured list with a fractured finger, he's stepped into an integral role in the middle of the lineup.
The 35-year-old was having the best offensive season of his career at the time of the trade, hitting .328/.430/.746 with eight home runs and 21 RBI in 22 games.
After going 2-for-16 in his first five games in a Padres uniform, he's 3-for-8 with a double and a home run since moving into the cleanup spot.
Tasked with protecting Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in the lineup, and hitting ahead of a productive Wil Myers, he's an extremely important part of a team on the rise.
San Francisco Giants: LHP Tyler Anderson
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Veterans Johnny Cueto, Kevin Gausman and Trevor Cahill have all thrown the ball well for the San Francisco Giants, helping turn a patchwork starting rotation into a strength.
When Tyler Anderson is on his game, he might be the best of the bunch.
The 30-year-old threw his first career complete game against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Aug. 22, allowing just three hits and one unearned run while throwing 103 pitches. In his last start, he threw six shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners.
He's also had some clunkers along the way, failing to make it out of the fifth inning on Aug. 28 and Sept. 4. Consistency will be the key for him to shore up the back of the San Francisco rotation.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Carlos Martinez
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Carlos Martinez can fill a multitude of roles for the St. Louis Cardinals.
He was an All-Star in 2015 and 2017 as one of the best starters in the National League before moving into the bullpen last year and converting 24 of 27 save chances after Jordan Hicks was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery.
He started the fourth game of the season for the Cardinals, allowing seven hits and six earned runs in 3.2 innings but spent the next five weeks on the COVID-19 injured list.
The 28-year-old finally returned to the mound Sept. 8, allowing seven hits and four runs in 3.2 innings against the Minnesota Twins, and his next start will come Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds.
"It worked out that he's going back in the rotation," manager Mike Shildt told reporters. "It's what he wanted, and ultimately it's turned out what we needed. The guys in the bullpen had stepped up. We got some pieces."
Can he get on track and make up for lost time?
Tampa Bay Rays: LF Randy Arozarena
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The Tampa Bay Rays traded highly regarded pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to the St. Louis Cardinals during the offseason for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena.
With Martinez already flipped again to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline, it's more clear than ever the Rays had their eye on Arozarena, and he has impressed in limited action.
The 25-year-old is hitting .400/.500/1.000 with four home runs in 24 plate appearances since joining the MLB roster on Aug. 30, and he has seen his name in the starting lineup three times in the club's last four games.
He was the No. 3 hitter on Tuesday and the No. 2 hitter on Thursday, so manager Kevin Cash is showing a willingness to play the hot hand.
If he keeps swinging it well, he'll play a prominent role offensively for a title contender.
Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Ross Stripling
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The Toronto Blue Jays have an interesting collection of veteran starters who will need to pull together if they are going to make a playoff run.
Hyun Jin Ryu has been as advertised in the staff ace role and Taijuan Walker has a 1.15 ERA in three starts since coming over at the trade deadline, but someone will need to pitch well behind that duo.
Tanner Roark (8 GS, 5.60 ERA), Chase Anderson (6 GS, 4.94 ERA) and Robbie Ray (1 GS, 7.36 ERA) are all in the rotation mix, and anyone from that group could emerge as an X-factor on the staff.
However, the pick here is Ross Stripling, who has thrived in a swingman role for the Los Angeles Dodgers the past four seasons.
Whether it's in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen or starting games, he'll have plenty of opportunities to eat up big innings for a contending Toronto team.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. Stats accurate through Wednesday's games.
