NFL Week 1 Picks: Prop Bets, Vegas Lines, Over-Under Predictions and Advice

Some of the best matchups to exploit in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season are not featured in the headlining clashes. 

Buffalo and Indianapolis are among the teams that carry a ton of value not only on the spread or over/under lines but in prop bets, too. 

Both teams made improvements to their offenses in the offseason and could show that off in divisional contests. 

The debut of Joe Burrow in a Cincinnati uniform may also produce a high point total that surpasses one of the lower over/under numbers set for Week 1. 

Favorable matchups are not limited to under-the-radar teams, as San Francisco should overpower Arizona, but it may do so in a low-scoring fashion since it is dealing with some injuries at wide receiver. 

NFL Week 1 Schedule and Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Thursday, September 10

Houston at Kansas City (-9) (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) (Over/Under: 54.5)

Sunday, September 13

Cleveland at Baltimore (-8) (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 48.5)

Indianapolis (-8) at Jacksonville (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 45)

Miami at New England (-6.5) (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 43)

Las Vegas (-3.5) at Carolina (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 47.5)

New York Jets at Buffalo (-6.5) (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 39.5)

Chicago at Detroit (-3) (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 44.5)

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5) (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 46)

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Washington (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 43)

Seattle (-1.5) at Atlanta (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 49)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 43)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5) (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 49)

Arizona at San Francisco (-7) (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 47.5)

Dallas (-3) at Los Angeles Rams (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) (O/U: 52)

Monday, September 14

Pittsburgh (-5.5) at New York Giants (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) (O/U: 47.5)

Tennessee (-2.5) at Denver (10:10 p.m. ET, ESPN) (O/U: 41)

Prop Bet Advice

Indianapolis (-4.5) at Jacksonville 1st-Half Spread 

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Frank Reich's offense could run rampant against the depleted Jacksonville defense. 

The Jaguars defense is a shell of the dominant unit that made it to the AFC Championship Game in January 2017. 

In 2019, Indianapolis produced 53 points in two games with its AFC South rival. The Colts held the advantage at halftime in both contests.

Neither halftime margin would have covered the 4.5-point spread set for Sunday's first 30 minutes, but there are a few aspects of both contests that lead us to believe the Colts could have an easy path to covering that number. 

Indianapolis totaled 264 and 132 rushing yards in the two games and found the end zone five times on the ground. 

The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in football and added Jonathan Taylor to complement Marlon Mack. 

The addition of Philip Rivers under center and the returns of Parris Campbell and T.Y. Hilton from injury should bolster the team's production. 

Reich has shown an ability to adapt his offense to whichever quarterback has been in his system in Indianapolis. That was also on display during his time as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator during its run to the Super Bowl 52 title. 

If the Colts can run through the Jaguars front seven with Mack and Taylor and then have Rivers hit them over the top, the game could be over by halftime.

When player props become available, keep an eye on Mack's rushing yards total. He had 186 rushing yards and three scores against Jacksonville in 2019.

Buffalo Total Points (Over 22.5)

James P. McCoy/Associated Press

Buffalo's AFC East clash with the New York Jets possesses the lowest over/under total of the week.

Part of that has to do with the unknowns surrounding the Jets offense and how many weapons Sam Darnold has at wide receiver. 

The Bills could also lock down Jamison Crowder and others through Tre'Davious White and the secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in 2019. 

Buffalo may not experience the same struggles as the Jets, which is why its team over/under is an intriguing bet at 22.5 points. 

In half of their 2019 home games, the Bills produced at least 20 points. That total could rise in 2020 with Stefon Diggs incorporated into the offense. 

Josh Allen lacked a consistent No. 1 receiver in 2019. John Brown and Cole Beasley were the only wideouts with more than 500 receiving yards. 

Allen has the benefit of having chemistry with Brown and Beasley, who are now his secondary options, while being able to target defenses with an all-around threat at the top of the depth chart. 

With Diggs in place, the Bills should be able to reach the 20-point plateau on more occasions in 2020, starting with Sunday. 

Over/Under Predictions

Arizona at San Francisco (Under 47.5)

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Both of the clashes between Arizona and San Francisco went over 50 points in 2019.

However, that total could drop in 2020 now that the 49ers have more tape on what Kyler Murray offers in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. 

San Francisco holds an advantage in being able to control the clock through its dominant rushing attack, which will be led by Jerick McKinnon and Raheem Mostert. 

The 49ers could be inclined to run the ball even more than usual Sunday because of some of the injuries they have at wide receiver. 

Deebo Samuel is recovering from a foot injury, and Brandon Aiyuk dealt with hamstring issues. Neither player has officially been declared out, but even if they play, they likely will not be at 100 percent without preseason snaps to test their respective injuries. 

If Samuel and Aiyuk are not at 100 percent, the Cardinals could hone in on George Kittle defensively and force Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them with Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis. 

Kyle Shanahan can counter that by using his stable of running backs and taking time off the clock that would affect how long Murray has the ball in his hands. 

If the time of possession numbers skew in favor of the Niners, they could keep the score low and not allow Murray an abundance of time to combine with DeAndre Hopkins over four quarters.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati (Over 43)

Bryan Woolston/Associated Press

When evaluating Cincinnati's over/under numbers in the first few weeks, it is important to look at other statistics from 2019 than just points scored. 

In eight home games, Zac Taylor's side was held under 20 points on five occasions, which leads you to believe the under 43 points is the play for Sunday's matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. 

The primary difference between this year and last is the presence of No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow and the return of A.J. Green. 

With Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley under center in 2019, the Bengals threw on 616 occasions. If Taylor's offense produces similar numbers, Burrow may have strong rookie totals. 

Burrow is used to throwing at a high volume from the offense Joe Brady, who is now with Carolina, installed during his senior season at LSU. 

The Cincinnati offense had four players hit over 500 receiving yards last season, and all of them are back for 2020. 

With Green and second-round pick Tee Higgins added to that group that includes Tyler Boyd, Alex Erickson, Auden Tate and John Ross, Burrow should have ample options to target through four quarters. 

The Chargers allowed 20 or more points in 11 of their 16 games in 2020 and will be without Derwin James in the secondary.

If Los Angeles does not have the personnel to keep up with Cincinnati's wide receiver depth, the Bengals can drive the points total over the projected number.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference