2021 NFL Mock Draft: Post Week 1 Breakdown

With the first week of the NFL season mostly behind us, you probably want to talk about how the 2021 NFL draft is shaping up, right?

Exactly what we thought.

Draft season never sleeps, even in a year when almost half of college football's top prospects won't be on the field to display their talent. 

Here is a look at (very, very) early projections for next April's draft following the first week of the regular season.

2021 Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2. Washington Football Team: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

3. Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

4. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

5. New York Jets: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

6. Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

7. New York Giants: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

8. Denver Broncos: Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

9. Detroit Lions: Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

10. Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

11. Arizona Cardinals: Walker Little, OT, Stanford

12. Los Angeles Chargers: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

13. Tennessee Titans: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

14. Miami Dolphins (from Houston): Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

15. Chicago Bears: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

16. Atlanta Falcons: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

17: Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR): Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

20. New England Patriots: Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

21. Buffalo Bills: Dylan Moss, LB, Alabama

22. Green Bay Packers: Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee

23. Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

24. Indianapolis Colts: Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

26. New York Jets (from Seattle): Jevon Holland, S, Oregon

27. Cleveland Browns: Elijah Molden, CB, Washington

28. San Francisco 49ers: Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

29. New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

30. Baltimore Ravens: Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama

31. Dallas Cowboys: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State

Notes

A Draft Unlike Any Other in History

The idea that we know how anything will look by April is laughable. Part of college football has postponed the 2020 season, and the other part is collectively holding its breath and hoping to get through the season without major incident amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Four of the five selections at the top of the board won't play this fall. Fields may have a shot at eventually getting on the field, but that would require him to participate in a potential winter/spring start—highly unlikely given the closeness to the draft.

Odds are, none of those four players fall much (if at all) by April. However, it's possible (if not likely) a player from the ACC, SEC or Big 12 winds up having such a stellar season that he enters into the high first-round conversation.

At this time a year ago, Joe Burrow was considered a Day 3 selection and LSU was expected to have a solid-but-unspectacular season. Instead, the Tigers won the national championship and had seven players taken in the first two rounds of April's draft, including the No. 1 pick in Burrow.

Mock drafts at this time of year are always a crapshoot. In 2020, they're like putting a blindfold over your eyes and throwing a dart. 

It's a Good Year for a Tank

Lawrence, Fields and Lance project as perhaps the best quarterback trio of the century—at least in terms of pre-draft evaluations. All three signal-callers have the skill sets to be Pro Bowlers several times over, starting with Lawrence, who has looked like a pro since arriving at Clemson.

The Jaguars are pretty obviously aboard the tank train. They've spent most of their offseason jettisoning every capable veteran on their roster for draft picks, the telltale sign of a "Trust the Process" style tank job. Poor Gardner Minshew is going to spend all of 2020 running for his life behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, handing the ball to some of the NFL's worst running backs and tossing the ball to—well, the receivers are OK, but that's about it.

The Carolina Panthers, Washington and Las Vegas Raiders are among the strongest bets to draft a franchise quarterback next April. All three teams project near the bottom of the standings, which should open the door for a potential 1-2-3 under center.