Fantasy Football 2020: Mock Draft Analysis and Selection Strategy

The 2020 NFL season is just over a week away, but there are still plenty of surprises that could crop up between now and the start of the regular season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars' release of running back Leonard Fournette is one prime example. The fact that the New Orleans Saints are open to trading Alvin Kamara could be another.

According to NFL reporter Josina Anderson, the Saints may consider trading the 25-year-old. The Athletic's Jeff Duncan confirmed the report, adding that it would take a first-round pick to get a deal done:

Naturally, if a deal were to occur before the start of the season, it would have a major impact on the fantasy landscape. Kamara is an elite fantasy back in Sean Payton's system, but would he be elsewhere?

For now, we'll assume that the Tennessee product and the Saints get their extension done and value him accordingly. Here, we'll examine the first two rounds of a simulated mock draft—done with FantasyPros' Mock Draft Simulator—and run through some of the early picks and selection strategy.

2020 Fantasy Mock Draft, PPR

Round 1

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

2. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

4. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans  Saints

5. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

7. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

8. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

9. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

10. Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

11. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

12. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Round 2

1. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

2. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

4. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

5. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

6. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

7. Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals

8. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

9. Chris Godwin,  WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

11. Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions

12. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

As you can see, Kamara is still an early first-round pick. That's not likely to change in mock drafts or actual fantasy drafts until/unless he gets traded. The reason is his points-per-reception (PPR) value. He has exactly 81 catches in each of his three pro seasons.

This puts Kamara just behind Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley in terms of fantasy upside. McCaffrey had more than 2,000 scrimmage yards last season, while Barkley did the same thing two years ago.

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is also in the top tier of first-round backs because of the floor his workload provides. He has topped 300 carries in three of his four pro seasons. In the fourth, he only played 10 games.

Things get a bit more iffier after the Big Four. Derrick Henry is very carry-dependent, as he has just 57 career receptions. Dalvin Cook has a significant injury history and has missed 18 games in the past three seasons. It's not a foolish idea to start considering a target-dominant receiver like Michael Thomas, Davante Adams or Julio Jones if you're picking fifth or later.

As long as Thomas, Adams and Jones are healthy, they're almost certain to be top-five wide receivers.

There is plenty of receiver value to be found in the second round, though, and if you took a running back in the first, this is a great place to target your WR1. The chance of grabbing two elite running backs isn't zero, but it's slim.

For example, Team 4 in this mock scooped up Kamara, then grabbed Detroit Lions wideout Kenny Golladay. This gives them potentially elite players at the two most important positions in fantasy.

Golladay might be a tier below guys like Thomas and Jones, but he's close in value. He led the NFL with 11 touchdown receptions in 2019 and added 1,190 yards while only playing half the season with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford.

You'll also notice that Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle are second-round selections in this mock. This is the right draft range for these two, as their roles and production are usually closer to that of a No. 1 receiver than a traditional tight end.

Kelce and Kittle are the only tight ends worth considering before Round 3. Guys like Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller comprise the next tier, but neither is enough of a "sure thing" to justify passing on a high-end running back or receiver.

Ideally, you should exit Round 2 with two elite players—and if Kelce or Kittle isn't one of them, you should have two backs and two wideouts.

After Round 2, it's wise to continue filling out your starting lineup. Don't draft three receivers before your first running back if you can only start two of them. Don't draft a second tight end before your starting lineup is full—you're not going to want one in the flex—and under no circumstances should you draft a kicker before the second-to-last round.

Quarterback can be one of the toughest positions to evaluate, and a lot will depend on your league's scoring system. Value them higher if you're awarded six points for a touchdown pass instead of four and/or if points are awarded for quarterback rushing—no, not every league does this.

Don't reach for a quarterback just because they're starting to come off the board. You're likely to find a quality starter deep in the draft, which isn't necessarily the case at other positions.

Most importantly, be flexible, have fun and always have a backup plan. Know who you plan to take with each pick if your first choice drops off the board right before you're on the clock. Many a fantasy draft has been hurt by a panic pick—don't let it be yours in 2020.