NFL Draft 2021: Mock Selection Order, Predictions for Trevor Lawrence, Top Picks

The 2021 NFL draft is going to be an interesting one.

Next year's class is loaded with talent, including potential franchise quarterbacks such as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Trey Lance. But some of the worst teams in the NFL—like the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins and Washington—have drafted quarterbacks within the last couple of years.

In some years, this might lead to a situation where teams at the top of Round 1 are almost certain to trade their picks for additional capital. However, the elite talent in the 2021 draft class isn't exclusive to the quarterback position, so we might not see much trading at the top.

A lot will depend on how the 2020 NFL season unfolds. With that in mind, we're going to examine how the season could affect the draft order and the picks at the top of Round 1. We'll use the latest Super Bowl odds from Caesars Palace in reverse order to mock out the draft order—using coin flips to break ties—and a little guesswork as to what might transpire should that order come to fruition. 

2021 NFL Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (250-1 odds): Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2. Washington (150-1): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

3. Carolina Panthers (125-1): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

4. Miami Dolphins (100-1): Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

5. New York Jets (100-1): Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

6. Cincinnati Bengals (100-1): Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

7. Arizona Cardinals (60-1): Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State

8. Detroit Lions (60-1): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

9. Atlanta Falcons (60-1): Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas 

10. Miami Dolphins [from Houston] (55-1): Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

11. Denver Broncos (50-1): Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama

12. Chicago Bears (50-1): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

13. New York Giants (50-1): Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

14. Los Angeles Chargers (45-1): Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

15. Cleveland Browns (35-1): Tyler Shelvin, DL, LSU

16. Tennessee Titans (30-1): Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

17. Las Vegas Raiders (30-1): Richard LeCounte, S, Georgia

18. Jacksonville Jaguars [from Rams] (30-1): Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

19. Minnesota Vikings (28-1): Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

20. Indianapolis Colts (25-1): JaCoby Stevens, S, LSU

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (25-1): Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

22. Buffalo Bills (25-1): Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

23. New England Patriots (20-1): Jay Tufele, DT, USC

24. Philadelphia Eagles (20-1): LaBryan Ray, DL, Alabama

25. Green Bay Packers (16-1): Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

26. Dallas Cowboys (13-1): Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

27. New Orleans Saints (13-1): Jamie Newman, QB, Georgia

28. Seattle Seahawks (12-1): Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-1): Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State

30. San Francisco 49ers (15-2): Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

31. Baltimore Ravens (7-1): Creed Humphrey, IOL, Oklahoma

32. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1): Elijah Molden, CB, Washington

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (250-1): Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

The Jacksonville Jaguars currently have the worst odds of any team, and if they do wind up with the No. 1 pick, it probably means they've gotten a poor season out of second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew II. If this happens, it's hard to see Jacksonville shying away from a quarterback at one.

Now, the debate for the Jaguars in this scenario will probably be whether to take Lawrence, Fields or  Lance with the pick. That could well be a debate over style.

According to Pro Football Focus, Fields was the best pure pocket passer in 2019, while NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah told the Ryen Russillo Podcast last month that Lance is the best quarterback prospect.

With the 2020 college season yet to unfold, though, it's hard to think that the Jaguars wouldn't take Lawrence here.

The 20-year-old has been lauded as a probable No. 1 pick since his freshman season, and he has all the physical tools a team could want and loads of big-game experience. Right now, he is the safest pick at the quarterback position.

2. Washington (150-1): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Things will get very interesting in the No. 2 spot if Washington owns it for the second consecutive year. It drafted former Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins just over a year ago, but if it earns the second pick, he probably isn't having a great season.

The big question for Washington and new head coach Ron Rivera will be whether to pull the plug on the 23-year-old after less than two seasons.

Depending on how poorly Haskins plays—and how well guys like Lance and Fields perform—in 2020, Washington may indeed move on.

However, if the Ohio State product continues to show flashes of promise like he did near the end of 2019—394 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions in his final two starts—the team may instead want to surround him with elite talent.

This is where Penei Sewell becomes an ideal target. Washington traded away its former franchise left tackle, Trent Williams, this offseason, and the Oregon product has the potential to be the team's next one and a critical piece of Haskins' supporting cast.

Sewell, 19, was recently graded by Pro Football Focus as the best offensive tackle on first, second and third downs. He projects as a plug-and-play starter and a possible perennial Pro Bowler.

3. Carolina Panthers (125-1): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Things will remain intriguing with the third pick if the Carolina Panthers earn it. They signed quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year, $63 million deal this offseason.

However, they're really only financially committed to the journeyman for two years, as only $5 million in dead money will remain after 2021.

This means that if Bridgewater is pedestrian enough to earn Carolina the third pick in the draft, the Panthers may not view him as the long-term answer at quarterback. While Washington may wait to see if Haskins can reach his ceiling, Bridgewater probably isn't going to leave many questions unanswered.

While a significant injury did derail the 27-year-old's career for several seasons, he's already started 34 games for the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints. If the Panthers feel they've seen enough, they could pull the trigger on a prospect like Lance.

Here's some of what Jeremiah said the Ryen Russillo Podcast:

"There's a maturity to the way he plays the game. He takes the layups that are there. He's selectively aggressive ... when he gets his shots he takes them. When I saw the no turnovers, I was like, 'maybe this guy is just a check-down Charlie,' but no—he fits balls in tight windows. He can drive the football."

Lance is the sort of dual-threat quarterback—he had 2,786 passing yards, 1,100 rushing yards, 42 total touchdowns, zero interceptions last season—that Bridgewater is not and that is becoming more popular in the NFL. His upside may be too hard to resist.