NHL Draft 2020: Lottery Odds for Top Overall Pick and Current Selection Order

Timothy Rapp@@TRappaRTFeatured ColumnistApril 30, 2020

Canada's Alexis Lafreniere celebrates after scoring his sides fifth goal during the U20 Ice Hockey Worlds match between Canada and the United States in Ostrava, Czech Republic, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2019. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)
Petr David Josek/Associated Press

As you wait for the NHL's hiatus to end, you're probably mulling over your team's draft prospects. Namely, if your team is out of the playoff picture, you're probably wondering what their chances are of securing the top overall pick.

You've come to the right place. Below, we'll take a look at what the projected NHL draft order would be if the season ended today and the top lottery odds for winning the No. 1 overall pick and the chance to draft top prospect Alexis Lafreniere. 

                 

1. Detroit Red Wings: 18.5 percent

2. Ottawa Senators: 13.5 percent

3. Ottawa Senators (via San Jose): 11.5 percent

4. Los Angeles Kings: 9.5 percent

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5. Anaheim Ducks: 8.5 percent

6. New Jersey Devils: 7.5 percent

7. Buffalo Sabres: 6.5 percent

8. Montreal Canadiens: 6 percent

9. Chicago Blackhawks: 5 percent

10. New Jersey Devils (via Arizona): 3.5 percent

11. Minnesota Wild: 3 percent

12. Winnipeg Jets: 2.5 percent

13. New York Rangers: 2 percent

14. Florida Panthers: 1.5 percent

15. Columbus Blue Jackets: 1 percent

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16. Calgary Flames

17. New Jersey Devils (via Vancouver)

18. Nashville Predators

19. Carolina Hurricanes (via Toronto)

20. Edmonton Oilers

21. Ottawa Senators (via New York Islanders)

22. Dallas Stars

23. New York Rangers (via Carolina)

24. Minnesota Wild (via Pittsburgh)

25. Philadelphia Flyers

26. San Jose Sharks (via Tampa Bay)

27. Colorado Avalanche

28. Vegas Golden Knights

29. Washington Capitals

30. St. Louis Blues

31. Anaheim Ducks (via Boston)

Odds via Tankathon.

               

No Detroit Red Wings fans will be happy with an NHL-worst 39 points so far, but holding solid odds to land Lafreniere is at least a nice consolation prize. 

But it's the Ottawa Senators, based on owning both their own pick and San Jose's selection, that are set to carry a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery. It will probably keep Red Wings fans up at night knowing they have a better chance to end up with the No. 4 pick (50.6 percent) than they do a top-three selection (49.4 percent). 

Ottawa, meanwhile, has fascinating odds given their two lottery selections:

  • No. 2: 24.3 percent
  • No. 3: 23.4 percent
  • No. 4: 46.5 percent
  • No. 5: 65.6 percent
  • No. 6: 15.2 percent

Senators fans will be bummed if the team comes away with Nos. 4 and 5, no doubt. But holding a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery is pretty exciting. 

And holding three first-round picks overall is pretty nice, too. Granted, the Senators need to nail those picks. But two selections in the top three picks would help. 

Other teams holding multiple first-rounders include the New York Rangers, Minnesota Wild and Anaheim Ducks.

Arizona's chances of keeping their pick are slim-to-none, meanwhile. The team needs to end up in the top three to keep the selecting from transferring to the New Jersey Devils. The odds of that happening, though, are extremely low. Along with the 3.5 percent odds to land the top pick, they hold just a 3.8 percent chance at No. 2 and 4.1 percent odds for No. 3. 

Folks in Arizona shouldn't hold their breath.