A Way-Too-Early Look at the Potential 2021 NFL Draft QB Class

The 2020 NFL draft has reached its conclusion, and for the fans of some quarterback-needy teams, it might have been a bit of a disappointment. Prospects like Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa came off the board early, and some teams were left without a clear succession plan under center.

However, there's a silver lining to be found. Next year's quarterback class is shaping up to be an enticing one. With Clemson wunderkind Trevor Lawrence headlining the group, there will be some signal-callers worth waiting for.

Here, you'll find an early look at some of the top quarterback prospects to be draft-eligible in 2021. These are players on the national radar and already gaining draft traction—keep in mind that a Burrow-like emergence is always possible, assuming the college season is played as scheduled. 

Players are listed in alphabetical order.

Shane Buechele, SMU

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Class for 2020 season: Redshirt senior

SMU quarterback Shane Buechele began his college career with Texas before losing the starting job to Sam Ehlinger, who we'll examine shortly. Statistically, he was remarkable in his first season with the Mustangs, finishing 2019 with 3,929 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Buechele doesn't check all the boxes in terms of size (6'1", 207 lbs) and arm strength, but he sees the field well, has a high football IQ and can put the ball where it needs to be. Though he isn't a scramble, he is mobile enough to buy time in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield.

A natural leader with terrific on-field instincts, Buechele could be the Jake Fromm of next year's draft class. He isn't going to wow anyone with his physical traits, but he could intrigue teams looking for a steady, pro-ready quarterback.

What Buechele is able to accomplish in his second season with SMU as a redshirt senior will have a big impact on where he's drafted next offseason.

K.J. Costello, Mississippi State

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Graduate (redshirt senior)

K.J. Costello is taking an interesting path to the 2021 NFL draft. After having a fantastic season with Stanford in 2018—he passed for 3,540 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions—he was inured in 2019 and eventually transferred to Mississippi State.

His performance in Mike Leach's wide-open offense this season could propel Costello high into the draft. We've seen players put up gaudy numbers in a Leach offense before, but teams have also seen Costello do the same in a more traditional system.

If Costello shines against SEC competition, he could become one of the hottest quarterbacks in the 2021 draft class. Of course, Leach hasn't yet committed to Costello as the starter.

"I plan to figure out where everyone is at and first teach them the offense and figure out where everyone is at," Leach said, per Michael Wayne Bratton of Saturday Down South.

If Costello doesn't get the chance to start this season, he'll remain a draft sleeper instead of a rising star.

Sam Ehlinger, Texas

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Class for 2020 season: Senior

As previously mentioned, Ehlinger replaced Buechele at Texas two seasons ago, and he has held down the job since. More of a dual-threat quarterback—he rushed for 663 yards in 2019—Ehlinger could intrigue teams interested in the new wave of pro signal-callers.

Players like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have raised the stock of dual-threat quarterbacks, and this could work in Ehlinger's favor. As a passer, he is still developing, which is likely why he chose to return for his final year of eligibility.

Bleacher Report draft analyst Matt Miller tweeted back in early October that he didn't expect Ehlinger to come out.

Ehlinger did show a lot of growth in 2019, finishing with 3,663 yards, 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. If he can continue developing as a downfield thrower, the 6'3", 230-pound Ehlinger could garner Round 1 consideration by next spring.

Justin Fields, Ohio State

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Junior

Though Lawrence is currently tending as the top option in 2021, Ohio State's Justin Fields could close the gap this season. The transfer from Georgia exploded under offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson in 2019, finishing with 3,273 passing yards, 484 rushing yards, 51 total touchdowns and just three interceptions.

"Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence may have competition from Ohio State’s Justin Fields, based on how Fields is playing, to be the first pick in 2021," Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer wrote in October. "I'd still say Lawrence is a heavy favorite, but that this is even a discussion is a huge complement to Fields.

Fields' draft stock could be affected by the pro play of Washington Redskins signal-caller Dwayne Haskins. Some will likely point to Haskins' statistical success at Ohio State—he had 4,831 passing yards with 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2018—and his struggles in the NFL, should they continue.

However, Fields is a better athlete than Haskins. At 6'3" and 228 pounds, he also possesses nearly ideal size for the position.

Another strong season should put Fields into the top-five conversation, regardless of how Haskins performs in 2020—though Haskins developing into a quality starter would help dismiss any potential "system QB" concerns.

Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Sam Hodde/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Redshirt sophomore

As a redshirt sophomore in 2020, North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance may wait to enter a draft class that isn't headlined by the likes of Fields and Lawrence. However, he's likely to generate a lot of draft buzz between now and that decision.

Lance has great size (6'3", 224 lbs) and physical tools. He's also coming off a season that rivals Burrow's 2019 campaign in some ways.

Lance threw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns with zero interceptions. He also rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 more scores. And he led the Bison to an undefeated season and an FBS championship.

Lance has just one year of starting experience under his belt and faced a lower level of competition. He isn't going to be a perfect prospect even with another year of stellar play. He should be a popular sleeper prospect if he does decide to declare.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Junior

Lawrence is already viewed as the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall next April. According to Adam Levitan of Establish the Run, Lawrence is a 2-5 favorite with Fields next up at 7-2.

This shouldn't be a surprise, as Lawrence has been seen as a nearly perfect quarterback prospect for two seasons. Listed at 6'6" and 220 pounds, he has size to spare. He also has enough athleticism to be a dual-threat when necessary and more arm talent than most quarterbacks could ever dream of possessing.

"There are maybe five guys on the planet who can make that throw," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said following one impressive spring-game toss last offseason, per ESPN's David M. Hale.

Lawrence also has two title-game appearances in two seasons to go with one championship. What he doesn't have are the ridiculous numbers that Burrow put up during his Heisman campaign this past season—though this doesn't make him a lesser prospect than Burrow by any stretch.

Lawrence's numbers were plenty impressive in 2019—he finished with 3,665 passing yards, 563 rushing yards, 45 total touchdowns and nine interceptions—but his upside as a pro is even more so.

Lawrence might be the most complete quarterback prospect we've seen—which naturally means the media will spend the next 12 months searching for flaws in his game.

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Senior

Like Ehlinger, Texas A&M's Kellen Mond is a dual-threat quarterback still learning to be a downfield passer. Also like Ehlinger, he has shown growth over the last couple of seasons in Jimbo Fisher's offense. He passed for 2,897 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2019 while also rushing for 501 yards and eight scores.

However, Mond will have to show even more as a passer to sniff the top rounds of the 2021 draft, as CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso explained:

"Potentially one more season in Fisher's kinda-becoming-old-school pro style offense could be enough for Mond to really resemble a first or second round type quarterback prospect, but we didn't see that in 2019. His completion rate got up over 60%, but his yards-per-attempt average dipped, as did his touchdown percentage."

Listed at 6'3" and 217 pounds, Mond has enough size and athleticism to play in the pros. He'll need to add some polish to his game, though, if he hopes to be more than a developmental Day 2 prospect.

Jamie Newman, Georgia

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Graduate (redshirt senior)

Georgia's Jamie Newman might be the most intriguing quarterback of 2020. A transfer from Wake Forest, Newman has archetypal size (6'4", 230 lbs) and athleticism to be a capable dual-threat signal-caller.

In 2019, Newman passed for 2,868 yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also rushed for 574 yards and six scores.

However, Newman is not a polished product—he completed just 60.9 percent of his passes in 2019—and he has rarely proved himself against premier competition. By the end of 2020, both of those statements could be untrue.

Newman has a chance to grow as a prospect under offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Todd Monken. Monken is an experienced NFL coach who should help groom Newman for the pros. By playing in the SEC, Newman will also get to show what he can do with and against top talent.

With a strong campaign, Newman could become an early first-round pick alongside Lawrence and Fields.

Kyle Trask, Florida

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Class for 2020 season: Redshirt senior

Like Tagovailoa this year, Florida's Kyle Trask may carry some injury concerns into the 2021 draft. He was expected to compete with Feleipe Franks for the starting job in 2017 but lost out due to an injury. His 2018 backup campaign was cut short by a foot injury as well. However, he stayed healthy in 2019 and took over as the starter due to Franks' ankle injury.

Once he got his opportunity, Trask was phenomenal. He passed for 2,941 yards and 25 touchdowns with seven interceptions in his 12 appearances. He helped lead the Gators to an 11-2 season and essentially put Franks out of a starting job—he has since transferred to Arkansas.

A pure pocket passer, Trask will intrigue traditionalists with his combination of size (6'5", 239 pounds), arm talent and timing. He'll also gain some attention for going toe to toe with Burrow and LSU last October. Trask finished that game with 310 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

Trask made only 10 starts last season. With another full campaign of starting experience on film, he could creep into the first-round conversation.