B/R Staff's Bold Predictions for 2020 NFL Draft
The 2020 NFL draft is likely to be...weird.
But that's OK, because most would have to agree that weird beats the status quo at the moment. And in a world in which sports are on pause, an odd, work-from-home draft should at least provide a welcome distraction to fans starved for any semblance of a live sporting event.
For many, Thursday night will mark the first time in over a month that they'll be able to watch a sports broadcast without the capability of Googling the final result. Let's be grateful for that, and let's embrace the weird.
Speaking of weird, Bleacher Report's team of NFL correspondents—Gary Davenport, Ty Dunne, Mike Freeman, Brad Gagnon, Matt Miller, Brent Sobleski and Mike Tanier—have draft-related thoughts. Many, many draft-related thoughts.
Here are their bold predictions for what should be a one-of-a-kind virtual draft.
Tune in to our 2020 NFL Draft Show for live, in-depth analysis on what each pick means for your team, with hosts Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller and Connor Rogers. No fluff, no B.S. Download the B/R app and watch starting Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET.
Most Surprising Pick of the First Round
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Every year there's a surprise, and usually a lot more than one. It didn't take long in 2019 before the Oakland Raiders shocked the draft world by selecting edge defender Clelin Ferrell fourth overall.
Even if there isn't a Ferrell moment in 2020, eyebrows will be raised and jaws will drop.
Here's a look at the surprises our experts are expecting Thursday evening.
Gary Davenport: Jordan Love is selected before Justin Herbert
Everyone knows (or at least strongly believes) that Joe Burrow will be the first quarterback taken in 2020. But then the waters muddy because of question marks—Tua Tagovailoa's health, Justin Herbert's inconsistency and Jordan Love's lackluster 2019 season. Herbert may well have the highest floor of the trio, but he also has the lowest ceiling. Tagovailoa is my pick to go second under center, but after that it's going to Bombshell City when some team decides that Love's athleticism and big arm are worth taking ahead of Herbert's prototypical measurables.
Ty Dunne: Wisconson RB Jonathan Taylor is picked high and flourishes
As he said himself, some running backs are special. Some can do it all and should be valued even now in 2020. What is there not to like in Taylor? From elite production to elite workout numbers, he just may be a running back worth building an offense around.
Mike Freeman: Jacksonville Jaguars take Utah State QB Jordan Love ninth overall
I continue to hear (and believe) the Jaguars are far bigger players in the quarterback market than they're publicly letting on.
Brad Gagnon: Detroit Lions take Iowa OT Tristan Wirfs third overall
Lions general manager Bob Quinn has suggested that new offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai could play guard instead of tackle, "depending upon what happens in the draft." I think the Lions are super serious about supporting the hell out of Matthew Stafford at a critical juncture, so if they can't trade back, I think they'll take the draft's most enticing offensive lineman over Jeff Okudah.
Matt Miller: Justin Herbert will be the second quarterback selected
Whether it's to the Miami Dolphins or Los Angeles Chargers, when Justin Herbert hears his name called before Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, it'll register as the surprise of the night. Such is life in a COVID-19 landscape when the oft-injured Tua hasn't been able to personally visit teams to be cleared medically by in-house doctors.
Brent Sobleski: New York Jets take Alabama's Henry Ruggs III before other top receivers are drafted
Three teams—the Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos—between the 12th and 15th overall picks are viewed as the sweet spot for this year's top wide receiver prospects. But the run may start sooner rather than later. The Jets are the wild card. An offensive tackle is most often slotted to New York with the 11th overall pick. The team needs weapons too, though, and could have its choice of prospects, with Ruggs holding a slight edge thanks to his game-changing speed. There's a reason why plenty of trade rumors are circulating around the ninth and 10th overall picks, and they have nothing to do with trading in front of the Jets for a tackle.
Mike Tanier: LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the first running back drafted
He could go late in the first round. We like to think that NFL general managers are 30 years behind the times and will take more traditional workhorses like Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor or Georgia's D'Andre Swift early, but most front offices have caught up with the times. Edwards-Helaire could have an Alvin Kamara-like immediate impact, making him useful for a late-picking contender in search of one more weapon on offense.
Biggest Draft-Day Trade
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And almost every year, there's a blockbuster. Sometimes several. In 2019, the Pittsburgh Steelers uncharacteristically sold a small draft farm in order to move up 10 spots in Round 1, and a top-three selection was traded in each of the previous three drafts.
What trade will rock the draft world this week? Our analysts cast their votes.
Gary Davenport: Las Vegas Raiders Gamble on Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa and then Flip Derek Carr
For much of draft season, it was a foregone conclusion that the Miami Dolphins were going to draft Tagovailoa, whether it was at No. 5 overall or by trading up. But the Raiders are going to blow that plan to smithereens by leap-frogging Miami to grab the Alabama quarterback. Then, before Mel Kiper's hair has even stopped not moving at all—ever—the Raiders are going to stun fans and pundits again by trading Derek Carr to the New England Patriots.
Ty Dunne: Cleveland Browns acquire OT Trent Williams from Washington Redskins
It makes too much sense however you slice it. With Williams, the Browns can absolutely reset the hype and expect to win big this season.
Mike Freeman: Raiders jump from No. 12 to No. 5 for Oregon QB Justin Herbert
He's reportedly being seen by some teams as a Tua Tagovailoa alternative.
Brad Gagnon: Atlanta Falcons trade into the top 10 for Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons
There are strong suggestions the Falcons are itching to move up, and you know Dan Quinn has gotta be lobbying for more defensive talent. I can envision Simmons sliding a bit to Jacksonville in the No. 9 spot, and the Jags could decide they're better off with several more picks in a deep draft.
Matt Miller: Falcons trade up for Florida CB CJ Henderson
The need at cornerback is enormous in Atlanta, and general manager Thomas Dimitroff won't sit and wait for one to fall to No. 16 overall. Instead, the Falcons will trade into the top 10 to get the draft's best man coverage cornerback.
Brent Sobleski: Dolphins jump from No. 5 to No. 3 for Herbert
One thought came to mind the second a report from NBC Sports' Peter King surfaced about the Patriots' apparent "love" for Herbert: If the Patriots are head over heels for Herbert, the Patriots South, a.k.a. the Dolphins, probably love him, too. Miami's rebuild led to this exact moment. The organization has all of the ammunition it needs to execute a trade with the Detroit Lions for the third overall pick and select their quarterback of choice—which will be Herbert.
Mike Tanier: Philadelphia Eagles trade up for a top-tier wide receiver?
My neighbors here in Greater Philly are all abuzz about 97.5 The Fanatic's Joe Tordy reporting that the Eagles will trade up for Oklahoma wide receiver Ceedee Lamb. I won't speculate on the likelihood of that happening, but I will say that if the top wideouts slide a little bit because of early runs on quarterbacks and offensive linemen, the Eagles are one of several teams closer to the bottom of the draft board who will try to jockey to get ahead of teams like the Raiders, who are almost certainly in the market for a receiver.
Biggest Steal of the Draft
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Could a virtual, limited predraft process lead to more busts and steals than usual? There are plenty of both every year, but general managers are working with less firsthand information than they're used to this time.
Who'll be this draft's A.J. Brown or Josh Jacobs? Here are some stabs at potential steals from the gang.
Gary Davenport: Ohio State DT DaVon Hamilton
All the run in 2020 has gone to Hamilton's teammate Chase Young (perhaps you've heard of him), but the 6'4", 320-pounder is an intriguing prospect in his own right. Hamilton has plus athleticism for a player his size, can play multiple spots along the defensive line and over one-third of his tackles in 2019 were for a loss. It's possible he'll slide into the draft's third day—and even more possible he's an NFL starter by the end of his rookie season.
Ty Dunne: Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts
More than ever, NFL coaches are willing to mold their schemes around what their quarterback does best, and Hurts' skill set is rare. If a team feels it can get by for a year with a vet at QB, why not see if Hurts can do exactly what he did at Oklahoma in the NFL?
Mike Freeman: Clemson WR Tee Higgins
He'll probably go after other big-name wideouts like CeeDee Lamb or Henry Ruggs III, but his career will be better.
Brad Gagnon: Florida CB C.J. Henderson
He might still be a top-10 pick, but he could also drop into the back half of Round 1. Maybe it's because Okudah is such a rare talent, but it's surprising the polished cover man isn't getting more love. He could become an elite shutdown corner early in his career.
Matt Miller: Clemson WR Tee Higgins
He's being forgotten about in a deep class at the position, but don't let his average 40-yard dash time scare you off his talent. Higgins' 4.56 at his pro day is the same time Michael Thomas ran leaving Ohio State, and he hasn't been hurt by it in the NFL. Higgins is the class' best deep threat outside of Alabama's Henry Ruggs III and will be a Round 2 steal.
Brent Sobleski: Minnesota S Antoine Winfield Jr.
A healthy Winfield is the best pure safety in this year's draft class. The unanimous 2019 All-American displays top-notch instincts, sideline-to-sideline range and tremendous ball skills. He's also an excellent open-field tackler, much like his father was. Injuries during his first two years on campus could drive him down boards, though. If he ends up in the second round, whichever team selects Winfield will acquire a future star defensive back.
Mike Tanier: TCU DL Ross Blacklock
I compare Blacklock to Chandler Jones because he is such an effective hand fighter. He has some flashy rip-pull-type pass-rush moves, but he also just swats blockers away from him on a snap-by-snap basis. I think hand usage is underappreciated for defensive linemen during predraft evaluations because analysts assume coaches can teach that sort of thing. Coaches assume that too. But the best defensive line prospects are often the ones who figured much of it out already.
Hottest Draft Take
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The draft wouldn't be the draft without heaps of smoking-hot takes. For months leading up to the night it all goes down, pundits and fans become deeply entrenched in thought processes surrounding the prospects they love or hate, fueling the Freezing Cold Takes Twitter account for years to come.
Here's a selection of our staff's hottest takes from the 2020 draft season.
Gary Davenport: The draft's best player will fall outside the top five
Joe Burrow is going to be the first overall pick. Chase Young is all but certainly going to go second. Then the Lions will trade back or maybe take Okudah. Then Dave Gettleman and the Giants will do something weird. Then the Dolphins will take a quarterback. All the while, a Swiss Army knife defender whose skill set is tailor-made for the 21st-century NFL will just sit there waiting for someone to take him so he knows where he'll win Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Isaiah Simmons is going to be a difference-maker in the pros…more so than even Young.
That's right, I said it. BOLD, baby!
Ty Dunne: If a QB falls to Green Bay, Green Bay takes that QB
General manager Brian Gutekunst knows how important it is to plan two or three years ahead. If, say, Jordan Love is there, and the Packers believe Love has a future, they should pull the trigger.
Mike Freeman: The Patriots attempt to jump up to top 10, are unsuccessful, then sign Cam Newton on Day 2
Enough said.
Brad Gagnon: The Chargers won't draft a quarterback
Even if they have a shot at Herbert or Tua, I think a team in win-now mode is quietly fired up about Cam Newton. I'm guessing they're waiting to sign Newton because they want to consider all of their options while his market is limited if not nonexistent. I also think the Dolphins will take Herbert and the Chargers will decide Tagovailoa is too risky in the No. 6 spot.
Matt Miller: The best wide receiver in the class will be the third one drafted
Alabama's Jerry Jeudy is the hands-down best receiver in the draft, but since he lacks the speed of Henry Ruggs III and the physicality of CeeDee Lamb, he'll find himself drafted third among the position's top players—he'll still be the best pro.
Brent Sobleski: Tua Takes a Teddy Bridgewater-Like Tumble
Tagovailoa's injury history is downright frightening. So, the possibility of a top-end quarterback prospect falling to the latter portion of the first round shouldn't come as a huge surprise. The draft is all about risk assessment, and the Alabama quarterback's warning signs are flashing bright red. The Athletic's Bob McGinn has reported three teams have him off their draft boards.
Mike Tanier: LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson has Vic Beasley Jr. upside and Barkevious Mingo downside
There's no questioning his athleticism. He just fits the profile of an edge-rusher who won't develop a Plan B when NFL blockers aren't beaten by his first move.
Best Virtual Draft Prediction
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What makes this draft so strange is that the entire league will be practicing social distancing. Commissioner Roger Goodell will kick off the night and announce first-round picks from his home in Bronxville, New York, and all 32 teams will operate remotely from basements, dens, maybe even bathrooms for all we know.
The league held a simulated draft on Monday to get a feel for potential kinks, and it doesn't sound as though it was a promising experience.
"Mock draft today already technical glitch w Cincinnatis 1st pick!!! Brutal," one participant texted ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Meanwhile, according to ESPN's Dianna Russini, multiple coaches and general managers said bandwidth problems led to communication issues during the test run.
So, what could go wrong on Thursday eve? Some theories...
Gary Davenport: Hack Attack!
OK, so it's exceedingly unlikely that a group of teenagers will hack into a team's Zoom or MySpace or whatever the NFL is using to conduct this year's draft, pretend to be Broncos general manager John Elway and take a punter with the 15th overall pick. At least I think it is—who knows anything for sure nowadays? But the idea of Cartman Brah jumping into the middle of the telecast still makes me chuckle—and we could all use a laugh right about now.
Ty Dunne: Fans find a way to still "boo" Goodell
Somehow, someway via social media, he'll get his annual serenade.
Mike Freeman: Goodell's mic fails to disconnect
And it catches him taking a pee during a commercial break.
Brad Gagnon: We'll lose Goodell for at least one pick
And ESPN will awkwardly relay the selection with even less fanfare.
Matt Miller: More trades
With general managers having more free time as of late, expect more trades. Deals have been started predraft with solid foundations in place for draft-night moves.
Brent Sobleski: Draft will be paused multiple times
Think about playing Madden on your preferred console and pausing the game during a crucial moment. Well, something similar will occur during this year's draft. Virtual timeouts will occur when a team experiences technical difficulties. This is bound to happen multiple times as general managers, scouts and front-office personal spread throughout the entire country are trying to communicate during a stressful time.
Mike Tanier: Murphy's Law
About five years ago, when preparing for my Bleacher Report pick-by-pick grades on Day 3 from home (I'll be doing them again this year!). A truck with too high a profile rumbled past my house and ripped down the wires that provided internet to about three blocks. I raced to a coffee shop in the next town with both my laptop AND my desktop (which contained many of my notes, not yet updated to the cloud), and set up a makeshift office there. While I hope it does not happen, we're one rough electrical storm somewhere in the nation from some general manager having to drive two towns over and conduct a portion of the draft from his brother-in-law's deck or something.
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