2020 NFL Mock Draft: Bold Predictions for Most Overrated Prospects

While every team will take their unique strategy into the 2020 NFL draft, they're all chasing the same objective: maximizing value.

On the extreme side of that exercise, it's about avoiding busts and adding stars. But most picks reside somewhere in the middle, so teams simply want to resist temptations to reach and seek out bargain buys wherever they're available.

We'll help with the process by red-flagging three of the most overrated prospects after running through our latest mock first round.

2020 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State

3. Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

8. Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

10. Cleveland Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

11. New York Jets: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

12. Las Vegas Raiders: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

13. San Francisco 49ers (via Indianapolis Colts): Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

15. Denver Broncos: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

16. Atlanta Falcons: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

17. Dallas Cowboys: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

18. Miami Dolphins (via Pittsburgh Steelers): Austin Jackson, OT, USC

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams): Josh Jones, OT, Houston

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

22. Minnesota Vikings (via Buffalo Bills): Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

23. New England Patriots: A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa

24. New Orleans Saints: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

25. Minnesota Vikings: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans): D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

27. Seattle Seahawks: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

28. Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

29. Tennessee Titans: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State

30. Green Bay Packers: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

31. San Francisco 49ers: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Oklahoma

Bold Predictions for Most Overrated Prospects

Justin Herbert Will Have Worst Completion Percentage Among Rookies

The love affair with Justin Herbert didn't come completely out of nowhere, as his hype train has been running full steam since before the 2019 season started.

However, the 22-year-old is climbing mock draft boards as much as anyone of late, and that seemingly has more to do with Tua Tagovailoa's injury issues than anything he offers.

In fact, when B/R's Matt Miller reported "multiple teams" now preferred Herbert over Tagovailoa on March 30, the reasoning was "injuries and the unknowns." It's fine to have some concerns with Tagovailoa's outlook, but using it to prop up Herbert seems unwise at best.

As ESPN's Mike Tripplett wrote in January, Herbert's goal for Senior Bowl week was "trying to prove he is worthy of a top-10 draft pick." While Herbert shined there and again at the combine, his film says he shouldn't be a top-five lock—even though that's where most mock drafts (including this one) now slot him.

Granted, he looks the part with size, athleticism and a strong arm, but things go awry quickly when he has defenders in his airspace.

"Among 129 qualifying quarterbacks this season, Herbert ranked 124th in negatively graded play rate under pressure," Pro Football Focus' Anthony Treash wrote. "You can see his panic in a collapsing pocket, an area where a first-round quarterback really shouldn't be losing his poise."

Herbert's inconsistency and inaccuracy will be steep hurdles to climb, and it's hard to imagine him ironing them out during his first season against NFL defenses. That's why our crystal ball sees him posting the worst completion percentage of any rookie quarterback to see regular action next season.

Mekhi Becton Will Lead Rookies In Sacks Allowed

Any team with a massive hole to fill on the offensive line will inevitably take a long look at Mekhi Becton.

The Louisville product immediately grabs attention for his towering 6'7", 364-pound frame, and he draws evaluators in deeper once they see him move. He generated as much buzz as anyone at the combine by (relatively) zipping through a 5.10-second 40-yard dash.

Scouts might be salivating over what Becton could become, but that conveniently glosses over what he is right now: an underdeveloped pass-blocker. Louisville's offense limited his exposure in conventional pass-blocking, and when he was put in those situations, he hardly impressed.

"The Louisville offense featured a lot of play-action passes and screens in 2019, which in turn, restricted Becton to only 73 true pass sets (i.e., standard quarterback dropbacks)," Treash wrote. "On those 73 true pass sets, Becton allowed eight pressures, which is a concerning rate."

Becton is a project, but teams will spend such a premium to get him that they'll try fast-tracking his development. As a result, we see him allowing more quarterback takedowns than any other offensive lineman in this class.

Jordan Love Won't Make a 2020 Start

The days of drafting a first-round quarterback and patiently fostering his development are long gone. It felt like Washington waited forever to unleash last year's No. 15 pick, Dwayne Haskins, and he still played nine games and started seven of them.

But Jordan Love could be the exception. Or he should be the exception, at least, as last season's frightening ratio of 20 touchdowns against 17 interceptions showed his severe lack of polish.

"He needs some time in the classroom," an NFC college scouting director told Yahoo Sports' Eric Edholm. "And when he comes out the other side, who knows?"

Love is the boom-or-bust prospect of this draft, which makes it incredible to see him being mocked some places inside the top 10. Anywhere he goes in the first round, he'll come attached to massive risk.

But if the 21-year-old gets past the first nine picks, he could land in a situation where teams don't have to play him right away. If it's the Raiders, they have both Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota; if it's the Saints or Packers, they're just preparing the succession plan for life after Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, respectively; and if it's the Patriots, that could get interesting, but they make a ton of sense for Cam Newton's next landing spot.

As long as Love isn't grossly overdrafted, he will hopefully receive the developmental time he desperately needs.