NFL Free Agency: An Early Look at Players Poised to Break the Bank in 2021

NFL players don't need a little luck in Las Vegas to hit the jackpot. Over the last three years, several playmakers have put together Pro Bowl and All-Pro campaigns with eye-popping numbers, which is enough to land a megadeal. 

Rising stars have resumes that speak volumes, and their agents won't need to go beyond the stat sheet to negotiate market-setting contracts. 

The Carolina Panthers didn't wait for running back Christian McCaffrey to start his fourth season on a rookie deal—even with a fifth-year option available. Instead, the club signed him to a four-year, $64 million extension Monday. His new average salary tops Dallas Cowboys tailback Ezekiel Elliott ($15 million). 

In the coming months, other clubs with a lot of cap space may consider extensions for 2017 first-rounders, but most of the big deals will focus on franchise-tagged players and 2016 first-rounders who are going into contract years. Defensive end Joey Bosa, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and quarterback Dak Prescott all fit into that category.        

Let's focus on 2017 draftees who are set to become free agents or in line to sign record-setting contracts next offseason. We've omitted veterans such as tight end George Kittle who are expected to work out new pacts with their teams this year.

---

Tune in to our 2020 NFL Draft Show for live, in-depth analysis on what each pick means for your team, with hosts Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller and Connor Rogers. No fluff, no B.S. Download the B/R app and watch starting Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

At 24 years old, Patrick Mahomes has earned league MVP honors, a Super Bowl MVP and led the Kansas City Chiefs to their first title since the 1969 campaign. He'll easily become the highest-paid player in NFL history by a wide margin.

According to MMQB's Albert Breer, Mahomes isn't in a hurry to sign an extension with more money likely on the way because of the new collective bargaining agreement and rising salary cap:

"[Patrick] Mahomes isn't going to do a deal early just because the Chiefs want to.” And the Chiefs do want to. But waiting for the CBA, and maybe even the broadcast deals, might make the most sense for Mahomes. NFL economics could change fairly significantly in the next year or so, and no one would stand to benefit more than the Kansas City dynamo if that happens." 

Even if Mahomes suffers an unfortunate short-term injury or posts average passing statistics next season, nothing can take away his accolades and strong performances over the last two terms.

Secondly, with ongoing talks between Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Mahomes should wait to see if the NFC East club resets the market on a deal with its signal-caller. Whatever the case, the reigning Super Bowl MVP will be worth significantly more when he's ready to sign on the dotted line. 

In 2018, Mahomes became the second player to throw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000-plus yards. With the ability to put up those jaw-dropping numbers at his age, he's one of a kind.

Contract Prediction: five years, $210 million

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Deshaun Watson isn't going to see Mahomes-level extension money, but he'll likely rank second in total cash leaguewide.

Watson flashed his brilliance on the field as a rookie, throwing for 1,699 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions before he tore his ACL, which shortened his campaign to seven games. The Clemson product didn't need much time to heat up the following campaign, racking up 4,165 yards and 26 scores through the air. 

Last season, Watson earned Pro Bowl honors for the second time in three seasons while leading the Texans to consecutive division titles.

In the big picture, Watson fits the modern-day quarterback mold. He's mobile and threatens defenses on foot, rushing for 1,233 yards and 14 touchdowns for his career.

Although Watson has played behind offensive lines that ranked 27th or worse in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, he uses his dynamic playmaking ability to move the offense.

Watson can throw a dart 15 to 20 yards downfield or tuck and run for chunk yardage on any given play. Now, teams seek those traits in a signal-caller, but it's still rare to see a dual-threat quarterback perform with the 24-year-old's consistency. 

The Houston Texans have jettisoned star players such edge-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who, according to ESPN's Dianna Russini, wanted a new deal, but head coach Bill O'Brien and the front office will have to pay up for a unique talent under center.

Contract Prediction: five years, $180 million

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Alvin Kamara had to like what he saw Monday. The Carolina Panthers made Christian McCaffrey the highest-paid running back after he racked up 5,443 yards from scrimmage through three seasons.

Like McCaffrey, Kamara poses a strong threat in the passing game. The New Orleans Saints tailback has recorded 81 receptions in each of his three seasons, racking up 2,068 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Since 2017, McCaffrey leads the league in yards from scrimmage, but Kamara (4,476) isn't far behind in fifth. On that list, between the two running backs, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley are on their second and third deals, respectively. The three-time Pro Bowler and 2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year will eventually have his turn, which will cost the Saints top dollar.

If quarterback Drew Brees decides to retire at the end of the 2020 campaign, the Saints should have the financial capital to pay Kamara. If the 41-year-old signal-caller plays another season, the front office may have to convert base salaries into signing bonuses or cut players to make room for the multipurpose ball-carrier. Nonetheless, he's worth every penny. 

Contract Prediction: four years, $60 million

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mark LoMoglio/Associated Press

Chris Godwin took a major leap between his second and third pro seasons. Initially, he played second fiddle to wideout Mike Evans, but the 24-year-old came into his own last season.

In 2019, Godwin led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in receiving yards (1,333) and touchdowns (nine) with a reliable 71.1 percent catch rate. The front office will have to consider a huge payout for the ascending star wide receiver out of Penn State.

Godwin will likely go up against Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay for the biggest extension among wideouts next offseason. Coming off his best season, he's averaging more yards per target (10) than both his potential free-agent market competitors.

The Los Angeles Rams still have to pay cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whom they acquired in exchange for two first-round picks and a 2021 fourth-rounder, before they extend Kupp. If the Detroit Lions turn over their front office and coaching staff after a third consecutive losing season under lead skipper Matt Patricia, the new regime may have plans that don't include a big raise for Golladay. 

According to NFL Network's Michael Giardi, quarterback Tom Brady wanted to sign with a team equipped with offensive talent. With two years on his deal, the 42-year-old signal-caller will likely want to keep Godwin, one of his two Pro Bowl wideouts, in the fold.

Contract Prediction: five years, $85 million

Dion Dawkins, LT, Buffalo Bills

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Typically, starting-caliber tackles in their prime years don't hit the open market. Dion Dawkins plays at a premium position, and he'll be rewarded for his quality blocking on the left side.

Dawkins significantly improved in his pass-block sets. According to STATS (via the Washington Post), he allowed eight sacks during the 2018 campaign. That number dropped to 3.5 in 2019.

Last offseason, the Bills reconstructed their offensive line, adding new starters at every position except Dawkins' spot. With his recent strides and the need to protect quarterback Josh Allen, the 25-year-old will see a lucrative payoff that vaults him near the top of the salary list among tackles.

Dawkins is a second-rounder, so the Bills won't have the luxury of a fifth-year option, which allows them to wait on an extension. They would have to franchise-tag him. General manager Brandon Beane should secure Allen's blind side instead of delaying a long-term investment in a solid offensive lineman. 

The Bills will only have three players with cap hits over $10 million. The front office has the financial resources to satisfy Dawkins' prospective contract demands.

Contract Prediction: four years, $66 million

Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Before Myles Garrett drew a suspension for his helmet-swinging incident with Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph, he checked all the boxes for a No. 1 overall pick set to sign a record contract. 

Following Garrett's Week 11 skirmish last season, the league suspended him indefinitely and then lifted the temporary ban in February. If new general manager Andrew Berry and his regime look past the suspension, the defensive end has performed at the level of an elite pass-rusher. 

In 2019, Garrett recorded 10 sacks in as many games. Since he entered the league, the 24-year-old ranks 11th in the category (30.5). If not for the pause on his availability, the Texas A&M product's sack rate would have given him a chance to reach the top five on that list.

In order to earn a megadeal, Garrett must stay out of trouble and produce. He's easily one of the best pass-rushers leaguewide with a complementary ability to set the edge against the run, so production should not be a concern.

The Browns are in a division with strong quarterback play. Lamar Jackson just won league MVP. Ben Roethlisberger is set to return from an elbow injury. The Cincinnati Bengals will probably draft 2019 Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick. Cleveland needs a top-notch playmaker to rattle signal-callers in the pocket.

Contract Prediction: five years, $110 million

T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

T.J. Watt shares a last name with a three-time Defensive Player of the Year in J.J. Watt, but he's stepped out from under his older brother's shadow.

Since 2017, Watt ranks fifth in sacks (34.5) behind big names such as Chandler Jones, Aaron Donald, Cameron Jordan and Danielle Hunter. He led the team in the category (14.5) and recorded a league-high eight forced fumbles last season.

Every year, Watt has upped his sack and tackles-for-loss totals, which puts him on the pathway to a major salary bump next offseason before his contract term. The 25-year-old is also coming off an All-Pro campaign.

With Watt's development headed (rapidly) in the right direction, the Steelers will likely reward their top edge-rusher and key component to an aggressive pass rush. 

If fellow outside linebacker Bud Dupree, who's had four seasons of fewer than seven sacks and one double-digit-sack campaign, doesn't come to a long-term agreement with the team this offseason, he's second in line behind Watt in 2021. 

As a rookie, Watt hit the ground running, and he's only shown improvement. 

Contract Prediction: five years, $115 million

Tre'Davious White, CB, Buffalo Bills

Rich Barnes/Associated Press

Tre'Davious White should monitor talks between cornerback Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams this offseason.

Although Ramsey has two more Pro Bowl seasons than White, the Buffalo Bills cornerback has a comparable number of pass breakups (43 to 49) and a couple more interceptions (12 to 10) for his career.

Last season, White etched his name on the NFL radar, logging a league-leading six interceptions and allowing a 50 percent catch rate when targeted in coverage.

White can play on an island and take on the opposing team's top wide receiver, which makes him irreplaceable within the Bills secondary. The coaching staff used him to travel with wideouts Terry McLaurin, Odell Beckham Jr. and Courtland Sutton last season. 

Quarterbacks who test White's side of the field should do so with extreme caution. He's tied for fourth in interceptions since his 2017 rookie campaign.

As a human blanket in coverage with above-average ball-tracking skills, White will garner a lucrative new deal. No one should be shocked if he tops Ramsey to become the highest-paid cornerback next offseason. 

With quarterback Josh Allen on a rookie deal, the Bills should have enough to extend left tackle Dion Dawkins and White on top-three deals at their respective positions.

Contract Prediction: five years, $85 million

Player salary details provided by Spotrac.