Why Home Runs Don't Automatically Lead to Postseason Success in MLB

The steroid era of the late 1990s and early 2000s ushered in a home run explosion in MLB, as we're exploring with B/R's Steroid Week. Yet, even as the league has worked to clean up its performance-enhancing drug act with increased PED testing and penalties, the long ball remains on the rise.

Big league hitters swatted 6,776 home runs in 2019, shattering the all-time record of 6,105 set in 2017. Two of the other top-five all-time home run totals were tallied in 2016 (5,610) and 2018 (5,585).

Some have blamed juiced baseballs. Then there's the boom-or-bust hitting approach that's growing increasingly popular in today's game. 

Between 2015 and 2019, MLB hitters' fly-ball percentage increased from 33.8 percent to 35.7 percent. Their hard-contact rate rose from 28.8 percent to 38.0 percent. And their strikeout percentage went from 20.4 percent to 23.0 percent.

Add it up and you've got more balls than ever clearing the fences (or missing bats entirely). But here's an interesting question: Does this dinger barrage equate to success in the postseason, which is theoretically the goal of every club?

The answer, often, is no.

In 2019, the Minnesota Twins set the all-time single-season record for team home runs with 307, and the New York Yankees clubbed the second-most all-time with 306. Yet the Washington Nationals, who finished 13th in baseball with 231 homers, ultimately hoisted the Commissioner's Trophy.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Since 2000, only one team—the 2009 New York Yankees—has led the major leagues in home runs during the regular season and gone on to win the Fall Classic.

Six of the past 10 MLB champions hit the most home runs or tied for the most during the playoffs, but considering World Series teams generally play the most postseason games by definition, that's not terribly impressive.

Last season, the Nats hit 19 home runs in 17 postseason games. The Houston Astros hit 25 in 18 games, and the Yankees hit 15 in nine games. In the end, Washington bathed in champagne and confetti.

The swing-from-the-heels approach might benefit teams over a 162-game season. But it doesn't always serve them in the small-sample crucible of October.

Consider, once again, the 2019 Nationals. They weren't the most powerful squad in baseball, but ace Max Scherzer helped them win a ring last autumn. Or, say, the 2014 San Francisco Giants, who finished 17th with 132 regular-season home runs but earned a third even-year title behind left-hander and playoff legend Madison Bumgarner. 

On the flip side, there were the 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers, who paced MLB with 11 playoff home runs in 10 postseason games yet failed to even make the World Series.

There's also the aesthetic aspect. More home runs and strikeouts mean a downtick in defensive plays and action on the basepaths. Some fans may be content to sit around and wait for a dinger, but in the interim, they must settle for less action.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

As Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci put it:

"It is clear that the narrowing of baseball to a protracted two-man battle of inertia has been a five-year slog, not a small sample trend. MLB this year is using the independent Atlantic League as a test lab, trying such remedies as a ban against defensive shifts and, eventually, pushing the pitching rubber back two feet in hopes of getting more balls in play."

If current trends continue, home runs (and strikeouts) will keep ticking northward when baseball resumes.

Then again, given the muddled postseason outcomes and possible fan disinterest, a course correction could be in order.

"If the compensation system continues to reward home runs, then this trend will continue," Colorado Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd said, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. "But there could come a point when players are penalized for too many strikeouts and not being able to put the ball in play."

Fans, we've long been told, dig the long ball. As for recent World Series winners? The results are less than certain.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.