Ranking the 7 Biggest Draft Mistakes of the Past 5 Years
In most cases, draft mistakes more negatively alter the course of an NFL franchise than any other mistake.
Mishaps in free agency happen all the time, and teams don't have a problem getting out of them. Look at the Jacksonville Jaguars already dumping Nick Foles on somebody else.
The same doesn't apply to draft mistakes, where a precious, premium asset goes to waste on a bust. When this happens, teams dramatically fail to fill problem areas and also have to deal with the hindsight perspective, which showcases which prospects they should've drafted instead.
The worst draft mistakes of the last five years feature prominent early investments gone awry. The players entered the pros with huge expectations, were tabbed as franchise-altering additions and ultimately flopped, especially when looking at the players still on the board. All these years later, some of these teams still haven't recovered.
Noteworthy Omissions
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The following players didn't make the top seven but still received notable consideration while meeting some of the criteria.
Roberto Aguayo: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers used a second-round pick on a kicker who went 22-of-31 as a rookie and ended up getting cut the next preseason. Notables Kevin Byard and Yannick Ngakoue came off the board within the next 10 picks.
Marcus Mariota: The Tennessee Titans used the No. 2 selection in 2015 on Mariota, who struggled with injuries and coaching changes on the way to a 62.9 completion percentage, 76 touchdowns and 44 interceptions before losing his job to Ryan Tannehill in 2019.
Jameis Winston: The first pick in 2015 never turned around his penchant for interceptions, notably throwing 33 scores and 30 interceptions in his final chance with Tampa Bay last season.
John Ross: The ninth pick in 2017 appeared in three games as a rookie, 13 in 2018 and eight in 2019, scoring just 10 times and posting two 100-yard games.
Solomon Thomas: The third pick in 2017 registered just six sacks over three seasons and put up a 56.7 Pro Football Focus grade last year.
7. Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns (2016)
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Coming off a three-win season (and not sneaking above .500 since 2007), the Cleveland Browns decided to use the No. 15 pick in 2016 on Baylor wideout Corey Coleman.
Coleman went on to play a part in Cleveland's 1-15 effort in 2016, dropped a pass in December to help secure 0-16 in 2017 and then was traded for a seventh-round pick after demanding a move on HBO's Hard Knocks.
Got all that? Over two years with the team that drafted him, Coleman appeared in 19 games, scoring just five times. He's one of the rare top-15 wideouts over the past 20-plus years who didn't make it to a third season with the team that drafted him.
Maybe the Browns should've seen it coming, as NFL Network's Mike Mayock had cautioned that Coleman doesn't have a route tree and needs manufactured touches. The Browns rolled with the ill-advised pick regardless, ignoring more important things most three-win teams need like offensive linemen, pass-rushers and secondary contributors.
6. Kevin White, Chicago Bears (2015)
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Coming off a five-win season but boasting plenty of offensive potential, the Chicago Bears used the seventh overall pick on getting Jay Cutler some help with West Virginia's Kevin White.
It sounded good at the time, at least. White was a 6'3" wideout who blazed a 4.35-second time in the 40-yard dash and earned himself a comparison to DeAndre Hopkins in the process from NFL.com's Lance Zierlein.
If only.
To say White underperformed would be an understatement. He didn't play in 2015 because of a shin fracture, made it in four games in 2016, one in 2017 and nine in 2018. He caught 25 passes with no scores over 14 career games.
With a top-10 asset mostly watching from the sidelines, the Bears went for six, three and five wins before Matt Nagy's arrival in 2018 to start a turnaround. White was the pick instead of Todd Gurley (10th), DeVante Parker (14th) and a host of defensive talent.
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5. Cedric Ogbuehi, Cincinnati Bengals (2015)
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The Cincinnati Bengals still haven't recovered from the Cedric Ogbuehi mistake in 2015.
The idea was to find Andrew Whitworth's successor and keep right cruising along after four consecutive playoff appearances, which turned into five during Ogbuehi's rookie campaign (he appeared in five games with no starts).
Bengals fans know where this is going.
The team hasn't hit .500 since, and Ogbuehi's failure to step in on the left side in front of quarterback Andy Dalton, who is heavily reliant on the talent around him, is a big part of it. Ogbuehi's play anywhere on the line ended up being a reason the team severed ties with line coach Paul Alexander after 20-plus years together.
Over his two years with significant starts, Ogbuehi's Pro Football Focus grade was 60.4 (2016) and 56.6 (2017). Normally a No. 21 pick setback wouldn't be the end of the world, but the severity of the gaffe here, made worse by also whiffing on Jake Fisher in the second round (who eventually tried to reinvent himself as a tight end), derailed the Bengals, and the line still hasn't been properly fixed all these years later.
4. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars (2017)
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After a three-win season and failing to hit above the .500 mark since 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars used one of the most precious NFL commodities—a top-five pick—on running back Leonard Fournette.
The Jaguars made the LSU star the fourth pick, and while the team went on to the AFC title game that year, it looks like anomaly after five- and six-win seasons, plus a continuing talent exodus.
Fournette played a role in the run to the conference title game, yet it's a matter of value, considering what other backs could've done there. He managed just 1,040 yards and nine scores on a 3.9 per-carry average over 13 games. He appeared in just eight contests as a sophomore and last year managed 4.3 yards per carry—but with 1,152 yards and only three scores.
That 1,152 yards didn't do much to help match expectations, with 16 players hitting the 1,000-yard mark last season. And while 76 catches were nice, it's questionable if the Jags will pick up his fifth-year option.
Keep in mind Jacksonville could have drafted safety Jamal Adams, arguably a better running back in Christian McCaffrey or—most importantly—a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson.
3. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (2017)
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This is it for Mitchell Trubisky.
The No. 2 pick in 2017 has been the butt of memes for the past few seasons, in part because the Chicago Bears traded up to draft him in the same first round that featured Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.
The exploits of those two superstars don't need much explanation. Trubisky, on the other hand, has completed 63.4 percent of his passes over 41 games, throwing for just 48 scores and 29 picks while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt—with a paltry 3.8 touchdown percentage.
Things were so lacking as the Bears dropped from 12 wins to eight in 2019 that Chicago traded for Nick Foles, the failed $88 million experiment in Jacksonville.
Trubisky is in a fight for his job, and compared to some of his draft classmates, that's not good enough. In addition, the investment cost from the trade up to the second pick will remain a black eye on the Bears.
2. Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos (2016)
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Paxton Lynch isn't just another John Elway quarterback draft bust for the Denver Broncos.
He is...but he isn't. So it goes in Denver. What makes the Lynch pick so bad is the fact that the Broncos wasted assets trading up to No. 26 in the first round to secure him.
Lynch got in three games as a rookie and two more as a sophomore. He got beat in a competition not once, but twice by seventh-rounder Trevor Siemian. He then got outplayed by Chad Kelly in a fight for third-string duties before losing them entirely upon Kevin Hogan's arrival.
All this in a draft that notably produced Jacoby Brissett in the third round and Dak Prescott in the fourth. In early second round otherwise, the Broncos ended up missing on Hunter Henry, Chris Jones and Xavien Howard.
To top it off, Elway and Co. still haven't found a viable starter since, most recently pinning hopes on 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock.
1. Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals (2018)
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Josh Rosen is easily one of the most interesting draft stories of the past five-plus years.
The Arizona Cardinals made Rosen the 10th pick in the 2018 draft and gave up on him after a single season. Along the way, he got in 14 games, completed 55.2 percent of his passes and threw 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. But he did so while getting sacked 45 times with a running game that could only muster 3.8 yards per carry and a defense that allowed 26.6 points per game.
Which isn't to say this is all on Rosen. The Cardinals have long been an underperforming franchise, and the front office committed to a coaching staff overhaul. But if they were willing to completely give up on Rosen after one year, it reeks of picking need over anything.
Had the Cardinals passed on Rosen, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Daron Payne, Marcus Davenport, Derwin James and Leighton Vander Esch were taken within the next nine picks—and don't forget Lamar Jackson falling to No. 32.
Miami then invested in Rosen at the price of a 2019 second-round pick and 2020 fifth-round pick and got six games with a total of one touchdown and five interceptions out of him. The Dolphins now look poised to draft a quarterback early this year.
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