2020 NFL Free Agents Who Won't Live Up to Their Contract

The feeding frenzy has begun—almost.

Over the past couple of days, deals that aren't really deals yet have been struck all over the NFL. The only ones that have "counted" are those where teams have brought their own players back (like Ryan Tannehill) and those where the franchise tag was used (like Derrick Henry).

For all the players changing teams, though, pen cannot be put to paper until Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. But that hasn't stopped hundreds of millions of dollars from changing hands in handshake deals.

Some teams have done well for themselves. The Cleveland Browns added a weapon for Baker Mayfield and bolstered the offensive line. The Arizona Cardinals pulled off a trade that was essentially grand theft wideout.

But other teams fell into a common trap this time of year: With cap space burning a hole in their proverbial pockets, general managers across the NFL signed players to substantial contracts they have little chance of living up to.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Deal: Four years, $118 million, $91 million guaranteed

Ryan Tannehill was one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 season. After starting the season as Marcus Mariota's backup in Tennessee, Tannehill won seven of 10 starts, led the NFL in passer rating, brought home Comeback Player of the Year honors and led the Titans to within a game of the Super Bowl.

They rewarded him for that run over the weekend. After reports circulated for some time that Tennessee could be interested in Tom Brady, the team instead locked in Tannehill as its long-term starter with a four-year pact that includes over $60 million in fully guaranteed money.

To be fair, he did have an excellent season in 2019, completing over 70 percent of his passes and posting a passer rating of 117.5. And the reality of the 21st century NFL is that the going price for a competent signal-caller can easily exceed $30 million per season.

But Tannehill's 2019 season wasn't just his best—it was his best by a mile. His passer rating last year was a career high—by 24 points. He topped 70 percent completing passes a year ago, but he had exceeded 65 percent just twice before that.

He wasn't a young quarterback who blossomed in year two or year three. During a six-season stint in Miami, the 31-year-old was mostly mediocre. That six-year sample size is a heck of a lot more meaningful than the 11 games he played last season.

Byron Jones, CB, Miami Dolphins

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The Deal: Five years, $82.5 million, $57 million guaranteed

The Miami Dolphins entered the legal tampering period Monday with the most available cap space of any team, and general manager Chris Grier wasn't shy.

The Dolphins sent their rebuild into hyperdrive with a flurry of signings—the biggest being defensive back Byron Jones, who spent the first three seasons of his career in Dallas as a safety before switching to corner in 2018. The five-year megadeal makes the 2018 Pro Bowler the highest-paid cornerback in the league.

It's not that the 27-year-old isn't a good player. As ESPN reported, Jones allowed just 53 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed in 2019.

But the game's highest-paid cornerbacks get the cheddar they do because they are difference-makers, and in one important regard, Jones isn't—he's terrible at creating turnovers. In five professional seasons, he has two career interceptions. His last came midway through the 2017 season.

You read that right—2017.

Add to that the Dolphins are already paying cornerback Xavien Howard over $15 million per season, and this signing has the makings of an expensive boondoggle.

But wait! There's more!

Ereck Flowers, OG, Miami Dolphins

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The Deal: Three years, $30 million, $19.95 million guaranteed

Chris Grier is in the beginning stages of learning a painfully expensive lesson: More often than not, throwing a ton of cash at free agents in the hopes of quickly reversing a team's fortunes backfires.

In addition to inking Byron Jones to a massive contract (and signing linebacker Kyle Van Noy and edge-rusher Shaq Lawson), the Dolphins also agreed to terms with guard Ereck Flowers, who spent the 2019 season with the Washington Redskins.

On the surface, the signings make sense. The Dolphins badly needed to juice up both the pass rush and offensive line. In 2019, the 'Fins were dead last with just 23 sacks, and the team was ranked 29th or worse in both run blocking and pass protection by Football Outsiders. Flowers played well in DC, drawing praise from then-OL coach Bill Callahan after switching from tackle to guard.

"I think he's one of our better offensive linemen, and to make the switch that he made … he made it remarkably well, and it's a really good position for him," Callahan said, per Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post. "He's playing better in live tight-quarter situations. He's physical, he's been really good in pass protection, he's a strong square force in that respect."

However, it wasn't that long ago that the 2015 No. 9 overall pick was unceremoniously dumped by the New York Giants. The position switch appears to have suited Flowers, but $20 million in guarantees is a lot for someone who has had one decent season in five years.

Arik Armstead, DE, San Francisco 49ers

John Hefti/Associated Press

The Deal: Six years, $102 million, $45.8 million guaranteed

There's an ancient Chinese proverb that warns, "Beware of NFL players coming off huge seasons out of nowhere."

Yes, Arik Armstead finally lived up to the first-round pick the 49ers used on him in 2015. The 26-year-old paced the NFC champions with 10 sacks, added a career-high 54 tackles and forced a pair of fumbles. He was finally the defensive force the Niners thought they were getting. And the backloaded structure of his extension provides the cap-strapped 49ers with some relief.

However, one 10-sack season shouldn't erase the four years that came before it. In those four seasons combined, he had nine sacks and one forced fumble.

There's also the financial realities of allocating that much cash to Armstead. On Monday, San Francisco also shipped defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts. That trade netted the team the 13th overall pick in the 2020 draft, but Buckner is the better player.

If Armstead continues to play like he did a year ago and if general manager John Lynch hits on that pick, Monday's gamble will play out well.

But if Armstead reverts to his pre-2019 form and/or Lynch whiffs in this year's first round while Buckner continues to shine in his new home, this massive financial commitment could start looking ugly quickly.

Kyle Van Noy, LB, Miami Dolphins

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

The Deal: Four years, $51 million, $30 million guaranteed

We're back to the Dolphins and another instance of a team overpaying a player based off last year's performance.

To his credit, Kyle Van Noy was an important part of one of the NFL's best defenses in 2019, racking up 56 total tackles and a career-high 6.5 sacks. That latter number had to appeal to Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who knows Van Noy well from his time as New England's linebackers coach.

But that familiarity—combined with Miami's desperation to improve a pass rush that tallied an NFL-low 23 sacks last year—led to a reach.

Prior to joining the Patriots during the 2016 season, Van Noy spent two-plus disappointing seasons in Detroit. Beginning in 2017, he turned things up a notch—73 stops and 5.5 sacks that season followed by a career-best 92 tackles in New England's last Super Bowl season.

But prior to 2019, half of his career sacks came in that 2017 campaign. He's never hit triple digits in tackles. And Miami just doubled the salary of a player who will turn 30 less than halfway into a deal that averages $7.5 million guaranteed per year.

Having a ton of cap space doesn't obligate a team to spend said cap space on the first day of free agency. Quite often, teams that engage on spending sprees on day one wind up with buyer's remorse.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Chicago Bears

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

The Deal: Two years, $16 million, $9 million guaranteed

Generally speaking, it's cause for celebration any time the Chicago Bears can pry a starter from their rivals. It's a twofer: The Bears filled a hole while creating one for the Green Bay Packers.

Given that, one would think landing veteran tight end Jimmy Graham on a deal that pays him $8 million per season would be a win.

And it would be—if this were 2014.

Over a four-year span from 2011 to 2014 while with the New Orleans Saints, Graham averaged well over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 scores per season. He was arguably the best tight end in football over that span. He wasn't quite as effective in three seasons in Seattle, but he had his moments—including 10 touchdowns as recently as 2017.

However, Graham was a complete non-factor in two seasons with the Packers. In 2019, he had just 447 yards on 38 receptions. Both numbers were the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2010.

He might have name recognition, but that's about it. And while it's only a two-year pact, over half the contract is guaranteed, and the Cleveland Browns landed a much younger and more productive Austin Hooper the same day for just $3 million more per season.

Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OT, Detroit Lions

Associated Press

No. 72 (left).

The Deal: Five years, $50 million

There are certain realities regarding free agency in the NFL. There are positions where players are overpaid by teams desperate to add talent. Quarterback is certainly one. Cornerback is another.

You can add offensive tackle to that list as well. Many of the signings so far in 2020 at the position have been relatively modest, like the three-year, $42 million pact Jack Conklin inked with the Cleveland Browns.

But there has been a head-scratcher or two—including the five-year, $50 million agreement reached between the Detroit Lions and four-year veteran Halapoulivaati Vaitai.

He is a competent player. He made 20 total starts at both tackle spots for the Eagles over the past four seasons, including 10 games during the Eagles' run to victory in Super Bowl LII. The 6'6", 320-pounder is a mauler in the run game, and his versatility is an asset.

But as Kyle Meinke of MLive.com pointed out, Vaitai has been a liability in pass protection. In that regard, he isn't much of an upgrade over the recently released Rick Wagner.

The odds that Vaitai is going to perform like a top-five right tackle aren't favorable, but he's being paid like one.

Eric Murray, S, Houston Texans

David Richard/Associated Press

The Deal: Three years, $20.25 million

This move won't garner nearly as much publicity as Texans head coach/general manager/grand poobah Bill O'Brien's baffling decision to trade wideout DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals for tailback David Johnson and a Day 2 pick.

It was a trade that beggars belief.

He wasn't done yet. No sir. After dealing the team's best skill-position player for a running back who hasn't rushed for 1,000 yards since 2016, O'Brien decided to "address" Houston's leaky secondary by throwing almost $7 million per season at a journeyman defensive back who has 15 starts in four seasons and one career interception.

Supporters of Eric Murray (by which I mean his family and agent) will point to his youth and versatility—he can play both safety and corner—as valuable traits. He's also been a quality special teams contributor in the past. And in fairness to the 26-year-old, he has shown the occasional flash.

But he's never been a full-time starter, and after being traded to Cleveland last year, he managed just 24 tackles and missed almost half the season.

O'Brien gave starter money to a player who has had four years to show he's capable of being one—and has not done that.