2020 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Overrated Prospects Who Will Disappoint

Optimism is overrated.

OK, we don't really mean that, but when it's optimism tied to the NFL draft, it can be a little much. Prospects are often viewed through a best-case-scenario lens, even though few will reach that.

While a select group may emerge as stars, another portion of the 2020 class could fall on its collective face. That's who has our attention for this mock draft, as we'll follow our picks with three overrated prospects sure to disappoint their NFL employers.

NFL 2020 Mock Draft

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State

3. Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

4. New York Giants: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

7. Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

8. Arizona Cardinals: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

10. Cleveland Browns: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

11. New York Jets: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

13. Indianapolis Colts: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

16. Atlanta Falcons: A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa

17. Dallas Cowboys: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

18. Miami Dolphins (via Pittsburgh Steelers): Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams): Austin Jackson, OT, USC

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

22. Buffalo Bills: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

23. New England Patriots: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

24. New Orleans Saints: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

25. Minnesota Vikings: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans): D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

27. Seattle Seahawks: Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma

28. Baltimore Ravens: Terrell Lewis, Edge, Alabama

29. Tennessee Titans: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

30. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

31. San Francisco 49ers: Grant Delpit, S, LSU

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

Overrated Prospects

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Passing teams seeking instant gratification should look elsewhere.

Justin Herbert's decision to stay for his senior season with the Ducks mostly paid off. He upped his completion percentage and yardage while trimming his interceptions. But he couldn't quiet the concerns regarded his inconsistency, which make his immediate (and long-term) outlook murky at best.

"You'd expect more development as a passer," SNY's Rich Cirminiello told Pacific Takes' Cam Mellor. "I just haven't seen enough of it. Herbert still makes too many poor decisions in the passing game and has accuracy issues, particularly when forced to go off schedule."

Admittedly, Herbert has so far crushed the predraft process. He was the Senior Bowl MVP, then he made the short list of NFL Scouting Combine winners. That probably cements his status as a top-10 selection, but should it?

The game film still isn't consistently great, and no amount of success in the workout setting will ensure he's over his issues with pocket awareness and reading the field. He'll still go early in the draft, but he was more bust potential than teams should feel comfortable with in this spot.

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

We promise we aren't here to just pile on the second tier of passing prospects. But when teams miss out on Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, they'll probably panic and select Herbert and Jordan Love higher than they should.

If you're unfamiliar with Love—we get it, not everyone watches the Mountain West—he has a big arm, mobility and some improvisational skills. After he lit up both the Senior Bowl and combine, Love climbed to No. 6 on the latest mock draft from ESPN's Todd McShay.

Like Herbert, though, Love has his warts. Frankly, he's more intriguing as an idea than an actual prospect.

"The physical potential is obvious. The ability to actually play the quarterback position at the highest level: less so," ESPN's Bill Connelly wrote.

Love had 20 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions this past season. Those numbers aren't all on him—there was a tremendous amount of turnover with the Aggies offense—but they speak to a lack of polish with poise, decision-making and dissecting defenses. Maybe we're old-fashioned, but those sound like deal-breaking weaknesses, at least when we're talking about a player picked in the top half of the first round.

Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

It's easy to get excited whenever a defensive back is coming out of LSU, but the first-round buzz around Kristian Fulton might be more than his game can justify.

He is surely skilled, with the size, physicality and aggressiveness to press-cover his opponents and make plays on the football whenever opportunity knocks. But when you weigh his pros against his cons, there might be too much of the latter for him to ever hold down a full-time starting gig.

"He plays with decent eye balance in off-coverage but can be a tad late with response time," NFL.com's Lance Zierlein wrote. "Once he gets behind, he tends to stay behind against multibreaking routes and his long speed and recovery burst are below average. Fulton showed improvement throughout the year, but his confidence has been an issue at times."

Those shortcomings form an uncomfortable package. When a defensive back doesn't have great response time, he better have elite long speed and recovery burst to prevent any momentary lapses from becoming huge mistakes. Fulton lacks all of the above, with the wavering confidence possibly delaying his decisions even further.

That's a troubling number of weaknesses for a first-round prospect.