2020 NFL Draft: 1 Realistic Trade Every Team with a Top-5 Pick Should Consider
The NFL is such a quarterback-driven league that teams will give up several lottery tickets for an opportunity to land the ideal signal-caller for their head coach's system. These decisions can lead to early successes or immediate setbacks, pending the player's performance, but it's worth the attempts.
Typically, when a team trades into the top five of the draft, that front office wants to claim a quarterback before another club with the same need does so.
In 2018, the New York Jets moved from sixth to third with quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all expected to be picked early in the draft.
Two years prior, the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles moved up to the Nos. 1 and 2 spots for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.
Which teams could be the movers and shakers before or during the 2020 draft? Where could presumptive No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow land?
Let's go through possible trade proposals for the top five teams in the draft. Within these offers, we'll refer to 2020 Hall of Fame inductee and former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson's trade chart, which is viewed as outdated in some circles but provides a basis for pick value.
No. 1 Cincinnati Bengals
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Cincinnati Bengals Receive: Nos. 7 and 38 picks, fourth-rounder (No. 103 overall); 2021 first-rounder, fifth-rounder
Carolina Panthers Receive: No. 1 pick, fifth-rounder (No. 129), sixth-rounder (No. 161)
Joe Burrow has said he won't refuse to play for the Cincinnati Bengals, but it's still early in the draft process.
Secondly, as ESPN's Adam Schefter pointed out on Get Up, clubs may offer intriguing packages for a shot at the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner. Schefter mentioned the Carolina Panthers as a possible team of interest because of the connection between Burrow and their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady.
In 2019, Brady served as the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach at LSUโhelping Burrow to a breakout year in which he threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns with six interceptions.
Though the Panthers plan to move forward with Cam Newton, he's still months away from being "game-ready" and circumstances can change, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Also, the 30-year-old signal-caller has only one year left on his contract.
If the Panthers land the No. 1 overall pick, they would have the option of playing Burrow or Newton, pending the latter's recovery.
Why would the Bengals say yes to this proposal?
Perhaps the front office isn't sure if Burrow is sold on being "The Chosen One" in Cincinnati. This club hasn't won a playoff game since the 1990 term and had a tenuous divorce with its last No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Carson Palmer, who forced his way out via a trade demand and retirement threat. Palmer's brother, Jordan, is preparing Burrow for the NFL.
With the No. 7 overall pick, the front office could still land a top signal-caller such as Tua Tagovailoa, or maybe team brass sees upside in Jordan Love, who generated major buzz at the NFL Scouting Combine, per Rapoport.
The Bengals can accept additional first- and second-round selections and then use those picks to accumulate blue-chip prospects for their rebuild. And Cincinnati still can land a potential franchise signal-caller.
Carolina would receive 3,070 trade value points this year compared to 2,108 for Cincinnati, but the addition of the 2021 first- and fifth-rounders balance the transaction. The scale would even tip in the Bengals' favor if the Panthers have a top-16 pick next year.
No. 2 Washington Redskins
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Washington Redskins Receive: Nos. 9 and 20 picks, DE Yannick Ngakoue
Jacksonville Jaguars Receive: No. 2 pick, fourth-rounder (No. 98)
The Washington Redskins could choose door No. 1, likely edge-rusher Chase Young after Joe Burrow comes off the board first.
Behind door No. 2, the Redskins could pick Tua Tagovailoaโa scenario that's gained traction, per NFL Network's Michael Silver.
Here's a third option that may catch the attention of head coach Ron Rivera and Co.: two first-round picks and a Pro Bowl defensive end. Instead of a near slam-dunk prospect in Young, Washington can land someone who's proved himself through four seasons with 37.5 sacks and acquire a pair of top-20 prospects.
The Redskins plan to keep edge-rusher Ryan Kerrigan, but he has only one year left on his deal. Of course, Washington would have to pay Yannick Ngakoue, who's said he has no interest in signing a long-term pact with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
To avoid a messy divorce, the Jaguars can franchise-tag and trade Ngakoue to the Redskins in this blockbuster deal for the Nos. 2 and 98 picks.
The Jaguars don't have a clear-cut starter at quarterback. Last offseason, Jacksonville signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million deal, but the coaching staff benched him for 2019 sixth-rounder Gardner Minshew II late in the season after he was an injury fill-in in Weeks 2-9.
To clean up the misstep on last year's investment in Foles, the Jaguars can select Tua Tagovailoa, have him sit one year behind the two competitors for the starting spot and then let him take over in 2021. At that point, Jacksonville can part with Foles and incur a more manageable $12.5 million dead cap hit as opposed to one for $33.9 million this year, per Spotrac.
In terms of trade points, the Jaguars would win the deal 2,708-2,200, but Ngakoue, a top pass-rusher, balances the scale.
No. 3 Detroit Lions
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Detroit Lions Receive: Nos. 6 and 37 picks, OG Forrest Lamp
Los Angeles Chargers Receive: No. 3 pick
In a text to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn called the Matthew Stafford trade rumors "100% False!"
It wouldn't make sense for a staff that's under pressure to deliver results. If the Lions select a quarterback for the future, how does that decision help Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia for the 2020 season?
The Lions need players who can start Week 1 or produce at high levels as rookies. Quinn can move down a few slots and pick up a second-rounder along with offensive guard Forrest Lamp, a 2017 second-rounder, to replace impending free agent Graham Glasgow.
Detroit would plug a hole and acquire two picks to draft players who could take the field with the first stringers in the 2020 season opener.
The Lions may have their sights set on cornerback Jeff Okudah at No. 3, but defensive tackle Derrick Brown could be available at No. 6. He'd fill a major need in the middle of the line after the team released Damon Harrison. Bear in mind, A'Shawn Robinson is headed toward the free-agent market.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Los Angeles Chargers agreed to acquire guard Trai Turner for tackle Russell Okung on Wednesday. In 2019, Dan Feeney took the snaps at left guard. Assuming he continues to do so, Lamp seems like an expendable asset. The oft-injured lineman has suited up for just nine games in three seasons (he missed 2017).
The Chargers can land one of the top four quarterbacks with the No. 3 overall pickโTua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert or Jordan Love. Los Angeles will consider Tyrod Taylor for the starting position, but one of the incoming prospects could add juice to the franchise as the team moves to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Tagovailoa throws an accurate ball (69.3 percent completion rate at Alabama) and possesses the mobility that fits the evolution of the position to more athletic passers under center. Herbert has a big arm and could utilize wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the perimeter. Love has great upside because of his athleticism and strong arm and would be capable of providing a spark to the offense.
The trade points match up in this deal, 2,200-2,130 in favor of the Chargers, but Lamp could help the Lions save money by not having to chase a guard on the open market.
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No. 4 New York Giants
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New York Giants Receive: Nos. 14 and 45 picks, CB M.J. Stewart
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Receive: No. 4 pick, sixth-rounder (No. 164), S Antoine Bethea
General manager Dave Gettleman isn't a big trader on draft day, but will he fall for anyone at No. 4 if Chase Young and Jeff Okudah come off the board at Nos. 2 and 3?
Sure, Gettleman can take offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr., but that's a strong position within this year's class.
Isaiah Simmons sounds intriguing, but how will the Swiss army knife defender translate to the NFL? Such uncertainty may cause Big Blue to pause.
The Giants can move back to No. 14, add a second-rounder, pick up a potential upgrade at the slot cornerback position and dump 35-year-old safety Antoine Bethea's expiring deal. He could become a leader for a young secondary and reunite with Bruce Arians, who was his head coach during the 2017 campaign.
Midway through the first round, Big Blue can still add a playmaker for its defenseโmaybe linebacker Kenneth Murray or safety Grant Delpit. Gettleman could also add a "hog molly" to the offensive line.
According to ESPN's Jenna Laine, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will explore quarterback options on the free-agent market. Peter King of NBC Sports thinks it's "likely" the team moves on from Jameis Winston.
What if the quarterback options dry up or choose to play in places other than Tampa Bay?
Arians doesn't have to settle for Winston. General manager Jason Licht should work on a blockbuster trade, targeting the No. 4 pick, which would give him a shot at a big arm to run an aggressive passing attack. Both Justin Herbert and Jordan Love would be logical fits because of their ability to push the ball downfield.
The Buccaneers would have to give up their first two picks in this year's draft, but Herbert or Love could be the long-term answer at the most important position. As for defensive back M.J. Stewart, he didn't fare well under the new staff during the 2019 campaign.
Stewart suffered a knee injury and listed as a healthy scratch this past term. He lost his role in the slot to rookie Sean Murphy-Bunting, who logged eight pass breakups and three interceptions. The former could be a solid trade chip because of his 2018 second-round draft pedigree.
The Buccaneers win this deal in points, 1,825-1,550, but the Giants receive the better player and pick up another top-50 pick, which would be a solid move for a rebuilding club with only one Day 2 selection.
No. 5 Miami Dolphins
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Miami Dolphins Receive: No. 13 and 34 picks
Indianapolis Colts Receive: No. 5 pick
The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts have a simple scenario: The former moves down eight spots and picks up a second-rounder. The latter lands a high-potential quarterback who falls out of the top four.
The Colts have been linked to quarterback Philip Rivers, which makes sense because of his familiarity with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni from their shared time with the Chargers. If the 38-year-old signal-caller doesn't sign with Indianapolis, general manager Chris Ballard could go after a quarterback prospect since the team isn't fully committed to Jacoby Brissett.
Jordan Love, who may struggle against pro defenses because of limited exposure to top FBS competition, could benefit from sitting for a year behind Brissett. However, his pocket presence, athleticism and ability to drop passes in a bucket 10 or more yards downfield portend great upside.
Though the Colts are unsure of their starting quarterback, Ballard has a good enough roster, with a strong offensive line, to take a calculated risk on the high-ceiling Utah State product.
Miami shouldn't force the issue at quarterback. The Dolphins don't have to choose an alternative option at the position because of roster need unless the front office believes in that player.
Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reported the team may favor Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa, but it is smokescreen season.
Other outlets have linked the Dolphins to Tagovailoa. ESPN's Todd McShay slotted the Alabama product to the team at No. 5 in his latest mock draft.
Regardless of the Dolphins' ideal quarterback option, they shouldn't settle for a player who will likely be expected to lead the franchise. General manager Chris Grier can take a look at a second- or third-rounder who piques his interest or wait until next year to select a signal-callerโperhaps Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields should they declare as underclassmen.
In Year 2 of the Dolphins' rebuild, they should look to acquire more draft capital if they're lukewarm on a prospect while on the clock with any of their three picks in the first round.
The trade points almost match at 1,710-1,700 in favor of Miamiโa fair transaction with comparable value.
Draft order provided by Tankathon. Trade value chart via Ourlads.com.
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