Every Top NFL Free Agent's Biggest Red Flag

Before NFL general managers splurge on top free agents, they should look at the big picture. Is the player worth a major investment? A top-tier talent's minor and major flaws may cause some teams to second-guess contract offers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars probably wish they could rescind their four-year, $88 million deal for Nick Foles. How do we know that?

According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, the Jaguars haven't placed the 31-year-old quarterback on the trade block, but he'll compete against 2019 sixth-rounder Gardner Minshew II for the starting job. No team expects to bench a signal-caller who's set to earn $22 million annually over four years, and that happened during this past season in Jacksonville. 

As the March 16 legal tampering period approaches, big-name veterans will have plenty of suitors lined up for their services. We'll dig into the biggest red flags for 10 notable playmakers most likely headed to the open market.

The selections below have either had consistent production over recent years or played well enough during the 2019 term to generate a lot of buzz on the market. Each player has an aspect of his skill set that needs work, a concerning pattern or has shown signs of aging.

QB Tom Brady: Age

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Quarterback Tom Brady will go into his age-43 season after a production drop-off in 2019. That should raise concerns even if you believe a lackluster supporting cast contributed to his struggles at the end of this past season. 

Brady completed just 60.8 percent of his passes, which is down 5 percent from the 2018 term. More concerning is the fact that the 20-year veteran's passer rating and QBR have been on the decline since the 2016 season.

NFL.com's Bucky Brooks pointed out a flaw in Brady's game that didn't exist a year ago.

"TB12 is also incapable of attacking the entire field as a passer, particularly on throws out wide," Brooks wrote. "Brady finished 2019 with the lowest passer rating (67.4) among 32 qualified quarterbacks on throws to wide targets, along with a 53 percent completion rate and a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio on these tosses."

When comparing those numbers with Brady's 63.4 percent completion rate, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 101.4 passer rating on passes out wide in 2018, either the Patriots or another team should be hesitant to invest big bucks in the six-time Super Bowl champion.

If he signs with a new team, he'll also have to learn a new offense or implement some of his methods, which raises another red flag for squads with developing chemistry. The three-time All-Pro has worked within offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' system for 11 of his 20 seasons.

QB Jameis Winston: Turnovers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

In 2019, Jameis Winston posted eye-popping yet alarming numbers. He threw for career highs in passing yards (5,109), touchdowns (33) and interceptions (30).

As a quarterback, the 30-30 club isn't something to brag about, and he has a history of turnovers over his five-year career.

Winston has a strong arm and fearless attitude that will help him put up video game numbers against subpar and average defenses. The box score may look different against quality units that can rack up takeaways. The 26-year-old became the first in NFL history to throw seven pick-sixes in a single term.

According to ESPN's Jenna Laine, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have grown frustrated with Winston's turnovers, and they'll explore quarterback options on the open market.

Winston's Achilles' heel isn't a secret, but his decision to undergo Lasik eye surgery may help him going forward. He reportedly didn't wear contact lenses while on the field.

If not, he needs a complementary ground attack to help cut down on his reckless throws and a strong defense that's able to get three-and-outs in case the offense loses the time-of-possession battle because of turnovers.

RB Melvin Gordon III: Replaceable as a Ball-Carrier

John Cordes/Associated Press

Melvin Gordon III can rack up yards from scrimmage in bunches. Since his 2015 rookie campaign, he's seventh in the category (6,113).

On the flip side, he isn't the most efficient rusher. In four out of five seasons, he's averaged fewer than four yards per carry. Last year, the two-time Pro Bowler held out through September for a new contract, yet the Los Angeles Chargers backfield didn't skip a beat with Austin Ekeler in the lead role.

In 2019, Gordon averaged 3.8 yards per rushing attempt, while Ekeler logged 4.2. At 6'1", 215 pounds, the former is the bigger tailback—Ekeler is 5'10", 200 pounds—and he is more effective in goal-line situations.

Gordon can take on a featured role, yet teams may want to complement him with a change-of-pace ball-carrier for more explosive gains. The 26-year-old has seen a decline in his average rushing attempts per outing since the 2016 season. 

Although Gordon will hit the open market in his prime, teams should temper their expectations regarding his ability to reach or eclipse 1,000 rushing yards, which he has done just once.

WR Amari Cooper: Fading Production Late in the Season

Butch Dill/Associated Press

On the surface, Amari Cooper's numbers look solid. He's registered at least 1,005 receiving yards and 72 catches in four of his five seasons.

In 2019, Cooper reached career highs in receiving yardage (1,189) and yards per catch (15.1). There's no doubt the four-time Pro Bowler helped boost Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott's numbers over the last year-and-a-half.

Let's take a look at Cooper's monthly splits:

• September: 17 games, 87 catches, 1,217 yards, seven touchdowns, 61.7 catch rate
• October: 18 games, 92 catches, 1,394 yards, seven touchdowns, 66.7 catch rate
• November: 21 games, 103 catches, 1337 yards, nine touchdowns, 62.0 catch rate
• December: 19 games, 69 catches, 1090 yards, nine touchdowns, 54.8 catch rate 

With roughly the same number of games during all four months of the regular season, Cooper is the least efficient in December. His previous and current quarterbacks are fairly accurate passers. Las Vegas Raiders signal-caller Derek Carr and Prescott have career completion rates of 64.0 and 65.8 percent, respectively.

Even in Cooper's best season, his production tapered off in the second half of the year. He eclipsed 100 receiving yards four times before Week 11 and didn't hit the century mark thereafter. The 25-year-old had a similar pattern during the Raiders' 12-4 season in 2016, failing to log at least 77 receiving yards in a single game after Week 8.

Cooper can lead a wide receiver corps as the primary playmaker, but his team has to figure out how to keep him involved and effective for crucial games in December.

OT Jack Conklin: Missteps in Pass Protection

Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

One can make a strong claim that Jack Conklin will be the top offensive tackle on the free-agent market. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Michigan State product should garner widespread interest. 

Conklin served as a key cog within the Tennessee Titans' physical offensive line that ranked top-five in run blocking in two of his four seasons, per Football Outsiders. On the flip side, the AFC South club hasn't ranked higher than 14th in pass protection.

While Conklin isn't the primary one to blame for the Titans' mediocre pass protection, he's experienced his struggles. 

"Conklin has some issues in pass protection, as his pass-blocking grade ranks just 49th on true pass sets over the last two seasons, and he’s on the higher end among offensive tackles receiving help (double-teams, chip blocks, etc)," Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus wrote.

According to STATs (via the Washington Post), Conklin has allowed eight sacks over the last two seasons, but that number dropped from five to three from 2018 to 2019.

Despite some slip-ups, Conklin's improvement in that aspect and his strong run blocking will encourage teams to pay a premium price. Front-office executives just need to read the fine print concerning his ability to protect the passer on an island. 

DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney: Moderate Pass-Rushing Production

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

Teams set to target lead pass-rushers should avoid Jadeveon Clowney. Based on his recent production, he's more of a complementary component within the front seven.

In Houston, Clowney played alongside three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, but even when the latter missed 24 games over two campaigns, the former didn't explode with huge numbers.

With Watt sidelined for 13 contests during the 2016 season, Clowney registered six sacks as a third-year veteran. In the following year, when Watt missed 11 games, the South Carolina product led the Texans in that category with 9.5.

The Texans didn't see Clowney as an irreplaceable defensive asset. They dealt the No. 1 overall pick from the 2014 draft to the Seattle Seahawks for a third-rounder, Barkevious Mingo and Jacob Martin.

The Seahawks needed a high-end pass-rusher after trading defensive end Frank Clark to the Kansas City Chiefs. Clowney took over quarters and a few games late in the season, but he logged just three sacks with 30 quarterback pressures.

Although his number of pressures ranked within the top 30, he didn't completely fill the Seahawks' pass-rushing void or provide enough to mask a vulnerable pass defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed. Seattle was 15th in quarterback hurries per dropback (9.2 percent).

Clowney can seal the edge and shut down the run as a dominant presence on early downs, but he's less consistent with closing on quarterbacks for impact plays. 

Defensive ends and edge-rushers justify making the big bucks with sacks and a ton of quarterback pressures. If Clowney signs a projected annual $20 million deal, per Spotrac, his team will want to see him accumulate more sacks.

ILB Cory Littleton: Limitations Against the Run

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Cory Littleton fits the mold of a modern-day linebacker. At 6'3", 228 pounds, he's a svelte athletic defender who can use his speed to track down ball-carriers and pass-catchers in the open field. The 26-year-old uses his fluid movement to mirror tight ends and cover the middle and seam areas on passing downs.

Despite Littleton's high tackle volume over the last two seasons (259), Pro Football Focus pinpointed a small hole in his game.

"… While potential suitors are going to love Littleton's ability to affect the passing game, he has had his struggles against the run. His 50.8 run-defense grade ranks just 103rd out of 126 qualifiers over the last two years, so that could hurt his value for teams looking for an all-around three-down linebacker," Monson and Palazzolo wrote.

Littleton isn't going to make his presence felt with consistency in the backfield. He's recorded 20 tackles for loss over the last four seasons. Because of his lean stature, teams will need to "keep him clean" with a strong defensive line that occupies blocks, which allows him to burst through clear pathways for stops. 

If Littleton plays behind a leaky defensive line that can't stop the run and allows ball-carriers to reach the second level, his tackling may not hold up against bigger or more elusive running backs.

CB Byron Jones: Few Takeaways

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Byron Jones provides versatility with his experience at cornerback and safety, and he's only missed one game in five seasons. He's also a solid 6'0", 205 pounds and capable of matching up against bigger wide receivers and quick-twitch pass-catchers on the perimeter.

Yet, when the defense needs a takeaway, Jones hasn't delivered. Even though he's logged 43 pass breakups over his five-year career, the Pro Bowl cover man has picked off just two passes—the last one in Week 8 of the 2017 campaign.

This is a minor red flag, but Jones will command top dollar on the open market. According to Spotrac, he is expected to ink a deal worth $14.1 million annually.

Jones' position flexibility boosts his value, but teams should question if he's the full package in coverage because of his inability to flip the field with a turnover. 

Typically, defenders who find the football are paid the most, but that's not in Jones' wheelhouse. If he has a subpar outing, he doesn't have the sticky hands to bail himself out of trouble.

CB James Bradberry: Limited Competition Against Smaller, Speedy Wide Receivers

Naomi Baker/Getty Images

James Bradberry is one of the lesser-known top talents set the hit the open market. According to The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue and Joseph Person, the Carolina Panthers will let their top cover man gauge his value. He hopes to land a deal worth $15 million annually.

Based on Bradberry's numbers, suitors may not hesitate to pay a high price. He has 222 solo tackles, 47 pass breakups and eight interceptions through four seasons. The 26-year-old plays in the same division as three of the top wide receivers in the league: Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Julio Jones.

Bradberry's believes he's battle-tested.

"I feel like I have three of the hardest matchups every year," Bradberry said, per Person. "I have to do it six times out of the year."

Aside from Jones, Bradberry's foot quickness isn't put to the test against bigger wide receivers like Evans and Thomas, which keeps him out of the "lockdown" cornerback category. Although solid, he doesn't have a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro season on his resume.

During the 2018 draft, the Panthers selected Donte Jackson, who ran a blazing 4.32 40-yard time, to complement Bradberry. The latter isn't a twitchy athlete on the perimeter. Coaching staffs have to be mindful of his potential limitations, specifically against speed on the outside.

At 6'1", 212 pounds, Bradberry can outmuscle a pass-catcher and use his size to his advantage, but if he's matched up against a deep threat who stretches defenses vertically, the Samford product—who ran a 4.5 40-yard time—may not have the step to keep pace.   

S Anthony Harris: Limited Full-Time Starting Experience

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Anthony Harris worked his way up the ranks in Minnesota. In 2015, he went undrafted out of Virginia and signed as a free agent.

He went through three nondescript terms before taking on a sizable role during the 2018 season. He logged six pass breakups and three interceptions in that campaign.

In 2019, Harris started and finished the season as the first-string safety, playing a career-high 909 defensive snaps. He tied for a league-leading six interceptions to go along with 11 pass breakups.

Harris has only been exposed to one system under head coach Mike Zimmer and defensive coordinator George Edwards, who isn't going to retain his position next season, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

After 31 starts in 65 outings in a familiar scheme, Harris may not produce similar numbers outside of his comfort zone as a full-time starter elsewhere. Teams will bank on his projection as an ascending talent.

Also, keep in mind, turnovers come and go for most defenders—some them are random. Harris will need to remain effective even when he's not picking off a handful of passes in a season.