Predicting Perfect Landing Spots, Contracts for the NFL's Biggest Free Agents

Where will the top pending NFL free agents land this offseason? In roughly two weeks, we'll start getting answers.

Free agency officially begins March 18, and teams can begin contacting players two days prior. Stars like Jadeveon Clowney and Amari Cooper will be fixtures in the rumor mill over the coming weeks. 

With the salary cap expected to reach roughly $200 million, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, the sheer amount of money that teams figure to spend this month should get plenty of attention as well.

Where might the league's top free agents land, and at what cost? That's what we'll examine here.

We'll determine ideal landing spots for NFL.com's top 10 pending free agents based on factors like scheme fit, surrounding talent, projected cap space and opportunity.

10. G Brandon Scherff

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Washington Redskins guard Brandon Scherff is the top offensive lineman available in free agency this year.  The 28-year-old has missed 13 games over the past two seasons, but he's also a three-time Pro Bowler.

Several teams could use his services, but a return to Washington makes the most sense. The Redskins know his value, need to protect quarterback Dwayne Haskins and have the cap space to make Scherff one of the highest-paid players at his position.

Washington is projected to have more than $62 million in cap space this offseason.

While Scherff will be looking at a new scheme in 2020, he should be a terrific fit for head coach Ron Rivera, who often used a run-first, run-heavy philosophy with the Carolina Panthers. According to JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington, the Redskins have already begun negotiating with Scherff on an extension.

Because of his recent injury history, Scherff may not command a market-leading deal. However, his next contract should be similar to the six-year, $84 million extension Zack Martin signed with the Dallas Cowboys two years ago.

Prediction: Scherff signs a six-year, $80 million contract with Washington that includes $42 million guaranteed.

9. DE Arik Armstead

John Hefti/Associated Press

If cap space wasn't an issue, it would behoove defensive end Arik Armstead to return to the San Francisco 49ers. He's thrived there—especially during his 10-sack campaign in 2019—knows the coaching staff and his teammates and could have a legitimate shot at returning to the Super Bowl.

The 49ers would also like to have Armstead back. According to ESPN's Josina Anderson, San Francisco is "working on getting a deal done."

If Armstead is looking to maximize his salary, though—or even come close to doing so—San Francisco is not the place for him.

The 49ers are projected to have just under $18 million in cap space. Based on the five-year, $85.5 million deal Dee Ford signed with San Francisco last offseason, the 49ers won't have enough space to give Armstead a fair-market deal.

Armstead should consider moving to the NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks. Seattle might lose both Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney in free agency, and it could desperately use a double-digit sack guy after tallying only 28 sacks in 2019.

The Seahawks are also armed with nearly $60 million in cap room, and they're legitimate challengers to San Francisco in the division.

Prediction: Armstead signs a five-year, $87 million deal with Seattle that includes $35 million guaranteed.

8. CB Byron Jones

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Byron Jones is set to be the most coveted cornerback in free agency.

The 2018 Pro Bowler has missed only one game in five years and has served as the Dallas Cowboys' No. 1 cover man for virtually his entire NFL career. At 27 years old, he's just entering his prime.

With nearly $74 million in projected cap space, the Cowboys could afford to make a run at retaining Jones. However, Dallas has several high-profile players slated to hit the market, including quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver Amari Cooper. 

The Cowboys are expected to let Jones hit free agency, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, and the NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles should be interested. They ranked 19th in pass defense last season and could potentially lose Malcolm Jenkins, Rodney McLeod and Ronald Darby from their secondary this offseason.

Joining the reigning division champs would allow Jones to remain in the playoff hunt for the foreseeable future. While the Eagles aren't expected to enter the market with as much cap space as Dallas—they're projected to have around $45.6 million—Philadelphia already has its franchise quarterback under contract.

The Eagles should be able to offer Jones a deal that rivals the five-year, $75.25 million contract Xavien Howard signed with the Miami Dolphins last offseason.

Prediction: Jones signs a five-year, $77 million contract with Philadelphia that includes $41 million guaranteed.

7. QB Ryan Tannehill

John Raoux/Associated Press

Former Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill rejuvenated his career with the Tennessee Titans last season. He finished the regular season with a 117.5 passer rating, helped the Titans reach the AFC title game and was named to the Pro Bowl for his efforts.

While several teams could be interested in Tannehill—Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman has heard the Carolina Panthers mentioned—a return to Tennessee would be ideal.

Tannehill showed he can thrive in Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system. He's grown comfortable with Tennessee's pass-catchers and should have a good chance to replicate his 2019 success if the Titans also bring back running back Derrick Henry.

Leaving the Titans might cause Tannehill to crash back to earth. Former Eagles quarterback Nick Foles is living proof that playing well in one system doesn't translate to general success.

The Titans' reported interest in Tom Brady—according to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer—could complicate matters. However, Breer reported bringing Tannehill back "really does appeal" to the Titans.

Foles' $22 million average annual salary may be a great starting point for Tannehill's next contract. That should be affordable for Tennessee, which has a projected $47.9 million in cap space. It''s a fair price for a quarterback who still must prove himself over the long haul.

Prediction: Tannehill signs a two-year, $45 million deal with Tennessee that includes $22 million guaranteed.

6. S Justin Simmons

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons may not yet be a household name. However, he's likely to become one in the coming weeks thanks to the massive payday he's about to receive.

The 26-year old is coming off a ridiculous 93-tackle, four-interception season and is perhaps the best young safety in the game. Unsurprisingly, Denver isn't planning on letting Simmons get away.

"We're hoping to get a deal done before that, but if we don't get something done, we'll use the tag," general manager John Elway said, per ESPN's Jeff Legwold.

A return to Denver does make sense. The Broncos have a strong defensive front, which allows Simmons to thrive on the back end. With young players like Drew Lock, Phillip Lindsay, Bradley Chubb and Courtland Sutton on the roster, Denver could also be nearing a wide playoff window, although it will be a challenge to overtake the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.

With roughly $66 million in projected cap space, the Broncos shouldn't have to risk Simmons playing on the franchise tag in 2020. They can afford to give him a long-term deal similar to the five-year, $70.5 million deal Kevin Byard signed with the Titans in 2019.

Prediction: Simmons signs a five-year, $74 million deal with Denver that includes $34 million guaranteed.

5. Edge Yannick Ngakoue

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Several teams should have interest in Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue. He is coming off a 41-tackle, eight-sack season and has produced at least 8.0 sacks in each of his four NFL campaigns.

The Jaguars plan to franchise-tag Ngakoue, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. However, they're projected to have only $22.9 million in cap space, making it difficult to afford him on the tag alone. Last year's number for defensive ends was more than $17 million.

Ngakoue has made it known that he doesn't plan on signing an extension with the Jaguars.

"I'm thankful for the journey and look forward to continuing my career elsewhere," he tweeted Monday.

Jacksonville is likely looking at a tag-and-trade situation with Ngakoue, so the question becomes where he might land. The Jaguars would likely prefer to trade him outside of the conference, so cap-rich NFC teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants make the most sense.

Of the two, New York is probably the best fit for Ngakoue. The Giants need an edge-rusher to pair with Markus Golden—assuming they re-sign him this offseason—and have the cap space to give Ngakoue a high-end deal. New York is expected to have more than $73 million in cap room.

Once again, Ford's five-year, $85.5 million deal is likely a good starting point here.

Prediction: Giants trade for Ngakoue, sign him to a five-year, $85 million extension that includes $38 million guaranteed.

4. Edge Shaquil Barrett

Mark LoMoglio/Associated Press

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don't make as much sense for Ngakoue since they're trying to retain 2019 sack-leader Shaquil Barrett. According to Schefter, the Bucs are "strongly considering" using the franchise tag on Barrett "if the two sides are unable to reach a long-term deal."

A return to Tampa does make the most sense for the six-year veteran. Barrett had his breakout 19.5-sack campaign with the Buccaneers after tallying a total of 14.0 sacks across four mostly underwhelming seasons with the Broncos (he didn't play in 2014, his rookie season).

Determining a fair contract will be the tricky part of the equation. Barrett has only year of elite production, so Tampa Bay may be reluctant to give him a hefty, long-term deal.

Another prove-it season under the tag would make a lot of sense here. With roughly $85 million in projected cap space, the Buccaneers could easily afford to go that route.

If Barrett is looking for more long-term security, he could be willing to sign a contract worth less than Ford's $17.1 million annual salary. A two- or three-year deal loaded with incentives could make sense for both parties.

"I’m not going to take drastically less, but I am open to doing what I think is best for my career, and I think that would be staying in Tampa," Barrett said on SiriusXM Radio (h/t JoeBucsFan.com).

Prediction: Barrett signs a three-year, $48 million deal with the Buccaneers that includes $20 million guaranteed.

3. Edge Jadeveon Clowney

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

If Jadeveon Clowney leaves Seattle, he's likely to be one of the most sought-after players on the open market. And Seahawks general manager John Schneider has stated that he doesn't plan to use the franchise or transition tags this offseason, which could open the door for Clowney to leave.

According to ESPN's Josina Anderson, both the Giants and the Indianapolis Colts could have interest in Clowney. Of those two, the Colts make the most sense.

Both teams have plenty of cap space, but Clowney has made it clear that money won't be the determining factor.

"I'm not looking to get on no sorry team for no money," Clowney said, per Joe Fann of NBC Sports Northwest.

The Colts finished 7-9 last season and could be contenders in the wide-open AFC South in 2020, especially if they upgrade at quarterback. Clowney would be a tremendous fit as an edge-rusher in Matt Eberflus' defense, and he's already familiar with several divisional foes after spending five years with the Houston Texans.

Armed with more than $86 million in projected cap space, Indianapolis can afford to give Clowney plenty of money as well.

The five-year, $105 million deal Demarcus Lawrence signed with the Cowboys last offseason should be a fair starting point for Clowney.

Prediction: Clowney signs a five-year, $106 million deal with the Colts that includes $60 million guaranteed.

2. WR Amari Cooper

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The Cowboys have held contract talks with wide receiver Amari Cooper and appear likely to retain him, according to ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler.

"Sources say they've been encouraged by the state of those talks in recent weeks. If no new collective bargaining agreement is in place by the start of the league year, teams would be allowed to use the franchise tag and the transition tag this year, and in that case Cooper would be a strong candidate for the transition tag if they can't do an extension with him in time."

Even with a new head coach in Mike McCarthy, it's difficult to imagine a better fit for Cooper than a return to Dallas. He knows the personnel, has chemistry with Dak Prescott and would remain the No. 1 receiver.

There's no guarantee that Cooper would be a top option in another offense. Let's not forget his disappointing 2017-18 stretch with the Raiders.

If Cooper doesn't play on the transition tag this season, Michael Thomas' five-year, $96.25 million extension is a good starting point for his next deal. While Cooper is not on Thomas' level as a No. 1 receiver, the increased salary cap could mean he still gets a deal with an average annual salary around $19 million.

Prediction: Cooper signs a four-year, $74 million deal with Dallas that includes $45 million guaranteed.

1. QB Dak Prescott

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

Given his age (26), status as a two-time Pro Bowler, starting experience (four full seasons) and durability (never missed a game), it's hard to argue that Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott isn't the biggest pending free agent in the NFL.

As is the case with Cooper, though, Prescott seems destined to return to Dallas. He's established himself as the face of the franchise there, he knows his supporting cast well, and he reaps the promotional perks of playing for one of the league's most popular franchises.

However, Prescott may not return on a typical long-term quarterback contract.

"One source suggested that Prescott might prefer to do a shorter-term deal than the traditional long Cowboys deal that allows them to keep restructuring for cap relief," Graziano and Fowler wrote.

Shorter deals may be the new norm for quarterbacks sooner than later, and it makes sense for Prescott to view Kirk Cousins' deal—three years, $84 million, all guaranteed—as a starting point.

Taking a deal with less overall money than the market-leaders but with more guaranteed money would benefit both Dallas and Prescott. The Cowboys will have more cap space with which to build their roster, while Prescott would still get plenty of financial security.

A deal worth just under the $32 million per season Carson Wentz is getting from Philadelphia would make sense if most of it is guaranteed.

Prediction: Prescott signs a three-year, $91 million deal with Dallas that includes $84 million guaranteed.

All contract and cap information via Spotrac.