MLB Stars Most Likely to Land Mega Contract Extensions by 2020 Opening Day
Major League Baseball's 2020 season will be here in no time. But for now, it's spring—and therefore extension season.
Though nobody has signed a massive contract yet, there's a good chance that a handful of players will do so before Opening Day arrives on March 26. Some might even cross the $100 million threshold, as Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Chris Sale, Paul Goldschmidt, Jacob deGrom and Alex Bregman did last spring.
We've pinpointed seven players who we think have a pretty good shot at signing a nine-figure megadeal in the next few weeks. To some degree, the timing is right, and the money could be there.
We'll go in order from least likely to most likely signee.
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers should certainly want to keep Christian Yelich for as long as possible given that he's been the best player in the National League over the last season-and-a-half.
In 195 games since the 2018 All-Star break, Yelich has slashed .342/.436/.705 with 69 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He won the NL MVP in 2018 and might have won another last year if he hadn't broken his kneecap in September.
The 28-year-old is, however, already under contract through 2021 with a club option for 2022. Instead of preemptively signing him to a massive long-term deal, the Brewers may be all too happy to pay him $41.5 million over the next three seasons and leave it at that.
Yet there's at least an outside shot that the Brewers will look at their squeaky-clean books and determine that acting now is worth the risk. Yelich himself might be game so long as the Brewers include an opt-out after, say, 2023 or 2024.
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
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For a guy who only recently turned 21 years old, Juan Soto has already made quite a name for himself in the major leagues.
He's played in 266 regular-season games with the Washington Nationals since 2018, along the way racking up a .287/.403/.535 batting line and a historically good 140 OPS+. He also posted a .927 OPS during the Nats' run to their first-ever World Series championship in 2019.
Of course, Soto isn't a free agent until after 2024. There's clearly no hurry for the Nationals, and Soto may be fine betting on himself. At least he achieves a shred of negotiating leverage upon reaching arbitration eligibility in 2022.
It's not, however, unheard of for a player with such limited service time to sign a nine-figure deal. Ronald Acuna Jr. did so just last year, and he had even less experience and fewer credentials than Soto does now. That could be the Nationals' cue to get something done.
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Speaking of young guys who've wasted no time becoming superstars, there's also Cody Bellinger.
He put himself on the map in 2017 by blasting 39 home runs en route to becoming the NL Rookie of the Year, and he's fresh off winning the NL MVP on the strength of a 1.035 OPS, 47 homers and an MLB-best 9.0 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference.
The clock isn't necessarily ticking for the Los Angeles Dodgers to extend Bellinger, but they are facing a tighter timetable with him than the Nationals are with Soto. He is heading into his final pre-arbitration season, and his free agency looms after 2023.
At 24, Bellinger is also several years older than Soto, and he could, therefore, be more open to signing now instead of betting on himself.
There is no more apt comparison for Bellinger than Buster Posey in spring 2013. It might have to have an opt-out or two, but an updated version of Posey's nine-year, $167 million contract with the San Francisco Giants might do the trick for Bellinger and the Dodgers.
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Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox
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Yoan Moncada might have had the best season nobody noticed in 2019.
Playing out his third year with the Chicago White Sox, Moncada logged 132 games and slashed .315/.367/.548 with 25 homers and 4.6 rWAR. Moreover, his peripherals suggest that he might actually have underachieved in the process.
With Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert already locked up, the White Sox's sights are now on Moncada. According to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, extension talks between the team and the 24-year-old's representatives are in the "early stages."
Nothing is imminent, however, and a deal worth over $100 million might be a long shot anyway. Though Alex Bregman's five-year, $100 million contract with the Houston Astros is a relevant comparison in this scenario, it wouldn't be surprising if the White Sox don't want to go that far.
Why? In part because Moncada isn't a free agent until after 2023, but more so because they've never gone as far as $100 million with any player, ever.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs declined to make any major acquisitions during the offseason. Might that be because they wanted to save money for an extension?
That probably wasn't their main motivation, but it's notable that they were having extension talks with Javier Baez in November. Those haven't led to anything yet, but it sounds as if neither side has backed away from the table.
"It's been up and down," Baez said in mid-February, per ESPN's Jesse Rogers. "It's business. It's really tough. I'll let them work that out. If it works, great. If not, we have another year."
Baez, 27, is indeed under Chicago's control through 2021, but he might want to cash in now rather than risk sharing the 2021-22 market with Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and teammate Kris Bryant. He is, after all, sitting pretty after racking up an .865 OPS, 63 homers and 11.1 rWAR over the last two years.
An upgraded version of the seven-year, $134 million contract Troy Tulowitzki signed back in 2010 might get something done.
George Springer, Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros sure could use a public-relations win right now. At least until the regular season begins, taking care of one of their own is probably the best they can do.
With Bregman and Jose Altuve already extended and Carlos Correa in a sort of no man's land after three straight injury-shortened seasons, George Springer is the most logical candidate for a new deal. Though he's a free agent after 2020, the 30-year-old has made no secret of his fondness for Houston.
"I love it here. This is a good spot for me, and we'll have to see what the future brings," Springer told reporters in March 2019. "At some point, I would speak to my agent, and we'd go from there."
The position Springer is in now isn't all that dissimilar to the one Charlie Blackmon was in two years ago. That could point toward a six-year deal, though Springer's superior track record would have to necessitate a larger guarantee than just $108 million.
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
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J.T. Realmuto is due for free agency after this season, and he's reportedly setting his sights for his next contract pretty high.
According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Realmuto is expected to seek a seven-year deal with a record-setting average annual value for a catcher. Currently, that belongs to the $23 million per year Joe Mauer earned in his eight-year, $184 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.
That might be a reach, but Realmuto is justified in valuing himself north of $100 million. Star catchers are hard to find, and he's been baseball's best to the tune of 12.5 rWAR over the last three seasons. Plus, he won't turn 30 until March 2021.
Per John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Phillies will try to get Realmuto to sign on the dotted line now rather than later. Depending on his wariness of having his walk year ruined by an injury—a la what happened to Wilson Ramos in 2016—he just might hear them out.
Honorable Mentions
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And now for a few more megadeal extension candidates worth monitoring this spring.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
With free agency looming after 2020, Mookie Betts may or may not have it in mind to secure a $400 million contract. If he's actually willing to settle for less, then the Los Angeles Dodgers might have a shot at denying the 2020-21 market the game's second-best player.
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
Strikeouts will forever haunt Joey Gallo, but he's twice been a 40-homer slugger, and he began to prove last season that he can be an all-around superstar. But since "began" is the operative word there, he and the Texas Rangers might want to hold off on signing something until a clearer picture of his ability emerges.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Aaron Judge is one of baseball's most feared sluggers and brightest stars in general. But he's also three years from free agency and battling yet another injury, so the New York Yankees would be wise to wait on offering him a megadeal.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Lindor is the best shortstop in baseball, and Craig Edwards of FanGraphs did a fine job of breaking down why the Cleveland Indians can afford to extend him. But among other things, pigs flying, hell freezing over and a blockbuster trade seem to be more likely scenarios.
Others: Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins; Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics; Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals; Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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