Potential Upside, Downside of 14-Team NFL Playoff

Rule changes are nothing new to the National Football League. In recent years, we've seen changes to the language defining what a catch is. We've seen the league experiment with the challenging of pass interference. We've seen changes to both the kickoff and to overtime.

Changes to the fundamental structure of the NFL season? Those are much less familiar, but they do occur. Flexible scheduling was added in 2006. Since 2010, the final week of the season has only involved divisional matchups.

Changes to the NFL playoff system are even more foreign. The league has consisted of two conferences and eight divisions since 2002. The playoffs have had 12 participants since 1990. Now, the postseason could see a dramatic shift beginning in 2020, as the league has proposed a new 14-team playoff format.

The Proposal

Mark Brown/Getty Images

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, one part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the league and the NFL Players Association is a 14-team postseason format. Under the proposed format, each conference will send three wild-card teams along with the four division winners. Only the top seed in each conference will receive a first-round bye. Players on a playoff bye will also receive a postseason game check—which they currently do not.

Per Schefter, the players are on board with an expanded playoff system.

"That's been agreed to for a long time," one source familiar with the CBA talks said, per Schefter. "There wasn't a lot of disagreement to that issue."

Where there could be an issue is the league's desire for a 17-game regular-season schedule. NFL owners have already approved the terms of the CBA proposal. The players and their representatives are expected to consider the proposal via conference call on Friday, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

While the 17-game season could be a sticking point, it certainly feels like the 14-team playoff is on the horizon. Here, we'll examine some of the pros and cons of the potential new postseason format.

Pro: More Teams Equals Better Postseason Chances

David Richard/Associated Press

Having close to 50 percent of each conference's teams in the postseason means that teams have a better chance of getting in. That might not mean much to the New England Patriots of the world, but for teams like, say, the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals, the additional slot could be huge.

The Browns haven't been to the playoffs since the 2002 season, and the Bengals have not notched a playoff win since the 1988 season. Under the proposed new format, both of these streaks could end sooner.

An expanded postseason means that fanbases that are regularly disappointed will have a better chance of justifying their "this is our year" feeling.

Pro: It Potentially Lessens the Impact of Injuries

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

Having better odds is great for downtrodden franchises, but it means little for regular contenders, right? Well, not exactly. A better chance of reaching the postseason will also benefit quality teams that experience significant injuries.

This past season, for example, the Pittsburgh Steelers played 14 games without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. They finished the season with a championship-caliber defense—one ranked fifth in both scoring and yardage—but with a mere 8-8 record and out of the playoffs.

Under the revamped format, however, the Steelers wouldn't have been punished quite so severely for having one key injury.

Pittsburgh would have gotten in as the seventh seed. The Steelers would have played the No. 2 seed Kansas City Chiefs, and the classic offense vs. defense matchup would have been a fun way to kick off the playoffs.

Con: It Decreases the Value of the No. 2 Seed

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

One of the biggest regular-season goals for any team is earning a first-round playoff bye.

"An extra week at this time of the season is crucial," Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said this past season, via the team's official website.

With just one team in each conference earning a bye, there could be teams that fall out of the first-round-bye mix early. Getting the No. 2 seed also loses some significance.

Last year, the Baltimore Ravens locked up the AFC's No. 1 seed in Week 16. Under the proposed new format, playoff-bound AFC teams would have had little to play for in the season finale. This might have significantly hurt the Chiefs, who snagged the second bye in Week 17 and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Pro: More Interesting Late-Season Games

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

An expanded playoff field will mean that bubble teams won't get eliminated from contention quite as early. Last season, for example, nine AFC teams were either in the postseason or still alive entering Week 16. Eight teams in the NFC were in the same position.

Expanding that number to 10 or 11 teams in each conference could have a major impact.

Of the 16 games played in Week 16, 11 had playoff implications. With another wild-card team in each conference, nearly every single contest might carry playoff relevance. This would mean that virtually every game would carry weight.

Con: Watering Down the Playoff Field

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

An expanded field could weaken the strength of some postseason matchups. Would fans be excited about watching the 13-3 Los Angeles Rams host the 8-7-1 Minnesota Vikings in the opening round? That's the matchup fans would have gotten in 2018 under the proposed new format.

While there are exceptions—the Tennessee Titans made it to the AFC Championship Game this past season—bottom seeds are already extreme long shots. Only two sixth seeds have ever won the Super Bowl in the 30 years of the 12-team playoff. It could be that long before a seventh seed even wins a title.

This could even be problematic for the NFL if it has an overlap in game scheduling for Wild Card Weekend—though, there would presumably be three games on Saturday and three on Sunday with three different time slots. If two games are on simultaneously, the one involving the seventh seed could be an afterthought. 

Pro/Con: An Entire Division Could Enter the Playoffs

Alika Jenner/Getty Images

Under the proposed new format, an entire division could get into the postseason at the same time. It would be unlikely—the same division has sent three teams to the playoffs seven times since the 2002 realignment—but not impossible.

In 2017, for example, the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons all made the playoffs. Had the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 9-7 and with the seventh seed, the entire NFC South would have gotten in.

Unlikely? Yes—the Buccaneers went 1-5 in the division, meaning they would have had to go 8-2 outside it. Again, not impossible.

Depending on how you view the playoff field, this could be seen as a pro or a con. For those who simply want to see the best teams play in the postseason, it would be pretty nifty for an entire elite division to be represented. For fans of the other three divisions in the conference, however, it might be a little more on the annoying side.