Super Bowl Odds 2020: Over/Under Line, Spread Picks for 49ers vs. Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to beat the San Francisco 49ers at Super Bowl LIV, but the margin for error is small. 

The Chiefs are just a 1.5-point favorite for Sunday's matchup. The AFC champions came in as the No. 2 seed on their side of the bracket but get the slight nod over the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Oddsmakers are expecting the defenses to show up to the game. San Francisco has limited opponents throughout the playoffs and would love for this to be a low-scoring affair. The over/under line tells the story of a game that will see defenses finding ways to stop their respective opponents. 

With all the prop bets, in-depth analysis and public attention the Super Bowl is, well, the Super Bowl of betting. 

Here's the important info on the biggest bets of the game and some key factors to consider when picking which side you're backing. 

Super Bowl Odds

Spread: Kansas City (-1.5) 

Over/Under: 54.5

Moneyline: Kansas City -123 (bet $123 to win $100); San Francisco +103 (bet $100 to win $103)

Via Caesars.

Nobody Covered More than the Chiefs this Season

Given the success of both teams this season, it's no surprise the Chiefs and Niners were among the top teams against the spread this year. However, Kansas City has beaten oddsmakers with more regularity than anyone, covering 70 percent of its games, according to TeamRankings data.  

The Niners aren't far behind at 64 percent, but it's worth noting the teams' latest trends make the Chiefs look even better. Kansas City is 7-0-1 against the spread in its last eight games. The Niners are 5-3 in that same span. 

San Francisco has been a lock when it's the underdog, though. It has only been a dog in five games this season, with all of them on the road. They beat the odds in all five games. 

This will be a road game in the sense that they are playing away from San Francisco, but home-field advantage isn't baked into this line. And they are a dog, but it's by the thinnest of margins. 

One of these streaks is going to be broken on Sunday. 

The Under is an Intriguing Contrarian Play

Given the prowess of both offenses, the over figures to be a popular play. 

Patrick Mahomes has been on fire in the playoffs, and the over has cashed in three straight games for the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan's offensive machine makes it an even more enticing option. The over is 1-1-1 in the 49ers' last three games, but the coverage of the coach's intricate offense is likely to sway bettors. 

In fact, the early numbers point to few people being on the under. 

"

Safe to say bettors are expecting a shootout in Miami 勞 pic.twitter.com/70gIJIY7BO

— B/R Betting (@br_betting) January 22, 2020"

However, there's some reason to consider it even if it's not the most fun thing to root for. 

Before the Chiefs' explosive playoff run, they were routinely hitting the under. It hit five straight weeks until the regular-season finale against the Chargers. 

The 49ers defense has been getting a lot of credit for its fearsome pass rush and ability to shut down the Packers and Vikings en route to the Super Bowl. But the Chiefs defense isn't that far behind in scoring defense, ranking 10th in the league at around 20 points per game. 

Prediction: Chiefs Against the Spread; Over

Honestly, it might just be best to avoid the over/under in Sunday's Super Bowl. With the public likely hammering the over, it feels too good to be true; yet taking the under and hoping these two offenses don't put up points seems like a stressful way to take in the game. 

As good as both defenses are, the offenses are simply too hot to take the under, even if it feels like a good pick. 

The Chiefs feel like a strong pick, though. There isn't much of an actual spread so it's basically taking them on the moneyline because even winning by a field goal would cover. 

In a battle between two evenly matched teams, it's never a bad strategy to lean with the better quarterback. That's Mahomes in this case and he informs both predictions here.

Chiefs 34, 49ers 26