Final Landing Spot Odds for Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel Before They Sign
Next week will be hands down the most invested in the MLB draft that Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel have been since they heard their names called in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
Since going unsigned as a result of lofty contract demands and a slow-moving free-agent market during the offseason, both standout pitchers have been victimized by the qualifying offer system.
In order to sign either player, a team would have to forfeit an early selection in the 2019 draft. The full rules of the qualifying offer system are spelled out at MLB.com.
However, once the MLB draft passes, they are no longer tied to that draft-pick penalty, and their respective markets will presumably play out in the days immediately following the conclusion of the event June 5.
So who will wind up adding one of the best closers in baseball history and a 2015 Cy Young winner capable of gobbling up innings?
Based on the latest rumblings from the rumor mill, current level of team need and some good old-fashioned gut feeling, we have laid out our final odds on where both Kimbrel and Keuchel will end up signing.
Long Shots for Kimbrel
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Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have the third-best bullpen ERA (3.52), and the relief corps has converted 17-of-21 save chances. So upgrading the closer spot is not a pressing need.
Still, they have remained in contract with Kimbrel, according to Ken Rosenthal and Josh Tolentino of The Athletic. With a relatively inexperienced late-inning trio of Diego Castillo, Jose Alvarado and Emilio Pagan anchoring the bullpen, adding a proven arm like Kimbrel could help take some of the pressure off the young guys.
Odds: 7-1
The Field
The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies will have to take into account the luxury-tax implications of signing Kimbrel, though a case can be made that all three would benefit greatly from acquiring him.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets have played .500 ball despite a weak bullpen that has posted a 4.53 ERA while tying for the MLB lead with 11 blown saves. There is no question they would benefit from adding Kimbrel, but will he be willing to join a team that looks like a fringe contender two months into the season?
Odds: 7-1
Serious Contenders for Kimbrel
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers had a top-10 bullpen last season. This year, the relief corps ranks 22nd in the majors with a 4.61 ERA. Closer Kenley Jansen (3.52 ERA) has been a bit more hittable, free-agent signing Joe Kelly (8.35 ERA) has been a bust, and the middle relief contingent has been average at best.
According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Jansen would welcome the addition of Kimbrel, as long as he doesn't have to surrender the closer's role.
Odds: 5-1
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers rode a stacked bullpen to the National League Championship Series last season, and after failing to bolster the starting rotation during the offseason, they were expected to lean heavily on the relievers once again in 2019.
Instead, the bullpen ranks a mediocre 18th in the majors with a 4.36 ERA, and closer Corey Knebel is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. Using Kimbrel as a short-term replacement makes perfect sense in a tight NL Central battle.
Odds: 5-1
Minnesota Twins
Despite entering the season without a proven closer, the Twins bullpen has more than held its own, converting 15-of-18 save chances while posting a respectable 4.19 ERA.
While Blake Parker (8-of-8 SV, 4 HLD, 1.96 ERA), Taylor Rogers (4-of-6 SV, 9 HLD, 2.38 ERA) and Ryne Harper (1/1 SV, 4 HLD, 1.61 ERA) have handled last-inning duties with aplomb, the team's impressive start to the season and big lead in the AL Central standings could be enough motivation to bring in an experienced stopper.
Odds: 5-1
The Favorite for Kimbrel
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Atlanta Braves
The reunion storyline just makes too much sense.
The Braves selected Kimbrel in the third round of the 2008 draft, and he racked up 186 saves in five seasons before Atlanta traded him to the San Diego Padres.
With presumptive closer Arodys Vizcaino injured again and then traded to the Seattle Mariners and left-hander A.J. Minter struggling to the point of demotion, the Braves have turned to Luke Jackson to close out games.
The 27-year-old has done a respectable job, converting 7-of-11 save chances with a 3.00 ERA, but he is far from a lockdown solution in the ninth inning.
According to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM, Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos "made it clear" Sunday that the team has "real interest" in signing both Kimbrel and Keuchel as the Braves look to separate themselves from the pack in a tight NL East race.
Odds: 3-1
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Long Shots for Keuchel
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San Diego Padres
Buster Olney of ESPN posited recently that the Padres might be the best fit for Keuchel if he winds up signing a one-year deal. He mentioned pitcher-friendly Petco Park, which could prove beneficial ahead of another foray into free agency and the ownership group's willingness to go above and beyond in 2019.
The only thing that keeps them from being part of the "serious contenders" group is the fact that they are a bit riskier choice if Keuchel is looking to latch on with a playoff-bound team. The Padres are on the rise, and they've played well to this point. But with so many young players on the roster, they might still be a year away.
Odds: 7-1
The Field
The Boston Red Sox rank 20th in starters' ERA (4.50), and the St. Louis Cardinals rank 21st (4.58). They would both stand to benefit from adding Keuchel to the rotation.
There is still at least an outside possibility that Keuchel finds his way back to the Houston Astros, though they have not exactly struggled in his absence with a 3.74 starters' ERA that is good for fifth in baseball.
The dark horse to sign him? How about the Oakland Athletics, who have been rolling of late despite once again operating with a patchwork starting staff. There might be no contender that would benefit more from bringing aboard the workhorse veteran.
Odds: 7-1
Serious Contenders for Keuchel
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Atlanta Braves
As mentioned earlier, the Braves have "real interest" in signing Kimbrel and Keuchel once the draft concludes.
Atlanta has a wealth of young arms in its system, and two of its best starters this year have been 25-year-old Max Fried and 21-year-old Mike Soroka. That bodes well for the future, but both could eventually be on an innings limit. Adding Keuchel to the mix would be a great way to lighten their workloads.
Odds: 6-1
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are tied for 27th in the majors with just 13 quality starts on the year—ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles (11) and Los Angeles Angels (nine).
Veteran Gio Gonzalez has given the Brewers a boost since signing April 27, and Jimmy Nelson is on the comeback trail. Zach Davies and Brandon Woodruff have anchored the staff to this point. With the way Milwaukee's pitching staff is built around the bullpen, Kimbrel might be a bigger priority, but Keuchel would be a welcome addition as well.
Odds: 6-1
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies targeted Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ during the offseason in their search for a left-handed starter to bring some balance to an all right-handed rotation.
They ended up opening the season with Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta in the rotation, and they have since turned to Jerad Eickhoff and Cole Irvin for support. After an all-in offseason headlined by the Bryce Harper signing, bringing the left-handed Keuchel aboard would fit the current philosophy.
Odds: 6-1
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays lead the majors with a 2.31 ERA from the starting rotation, well ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers (3.00 ERA) in second place, and they're operating with just two traditional starters.
Breakout star Tyler Glasnow is sidelined with a right forearm strain, leaving Blake Snell and Charlie Morton as the only set starters on the staff. Meanwhile, Ryan Yarbrough, Jalen Beeks and Yonny Chirinos have pitched well behind the openers all year and have helped pick up the slack while Glasnow recovers.
There's no reason to think the Rays can't continue to succeed with their current approach. Still, adding Keuchel would provide a bit more stability over the course of a long season.
Odds: 6-1
The Favorite for Keuchel
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New York Yankees
Where would the Yankees be without a breakout season from Domingo German?
Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Jordan Montgomery and Jonathan Loaisiga are all currently on the injured list, James Paxton has been limited to just seven starts so far, and J.A. Happ has struggled to a 5.09 ERA. German's breakout performance alongside Masahiro Tanaka has helped keep New York afloat.
The team has done a stunningly good job navigating injuries up and down the roster all season, showcasing its impressive organizational depth along the way.
Still, if the Yankees have legitimate title hopes, adding another starting pitcher might be a necessity between now and the July 31 trade deadline.
Rather than paying a steep prospect price for someone like San Francisco Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner, they may prefer to simply pony up and sign Keuchel to a prorated one-year deal. After all, he has always pitched well at Yankee Stadium with a 2.45 ERA in 33 career innings.
Odds: 9-2
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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