2018-19 NFL MVP: Predicting Odds for Award's Top Candidates

The NFL regular season ended with a flourish, as teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts won spots in the postseason as a result of Week 17 victories.

The end of the regular season marked the last time players could state their case for the individual honors that will be handed out February 2 in Atlanta. That's the night before the Super Bowl, and that city will host the big event the next day.

The greatest of those individual honors is the league's Most Valuable Player Award, an honor that often is the domain of the best players on the best teams.

Great players on ordinary teams can put up huge numbers, but it's rare that those numbers have staying power with the 50 Associated Press voters who decide the NFL's official MVP award.

This year, the award appears to be a strong two-way battle between Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints.

OddsShark lists Mahomes as the -250 favorite to come away with the honor, while Brees is listed at +170.

Earlier in the season, the race between those two quarterbacks was much closer, but the Saints and Brees seemed to throttle back on their offense in the final month of the regular season, while the Chiefs and Mahomes had to keep pushing.

Kansas City clinched the AFC West title and the No. 1 seed in the conference on the final Sunday of the season. If they had lost that game to the Oakland Raiders, they would have been relegated to second place in the division and the No. 1 wild-card spot in the playoffs.

While Mahomes and Brees are listed as the only betting candidates for the award, that was not the case in mid-December when Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers and defensive lineman Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams were also in consideration

At the time, Rivers was listed at +1600 and Donald was a true long shot at +5000.

Although he isn't listed, quartertback Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts may also get a few votes.

The Colts were awful at the start of the season, but they closed the year by winning nine of their last 10 games. They also won their first playoff encounter, but that victory will have no impact on MVP voting.

Mahomes is in his first season as a starter, and he has had a remarkable year. He has completed 383 of 580 passes for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns passes and 12 interception. He has also rushed for 272 yards and three touchdowns.

The 23-year-old threw four touchdown passes or more in seven games, and he threw six TD passes in two games.

Brees completed a remarkable 74.4 percent of his passes by completing 364 of 489 passes for 3,992 yards. He threw 32 regular-season touchdown passes and just five interceptions. 

Luck, who came back from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss all of the 2017 season, had a brilliant year. He has completed 430 of 639 passes for 4,593 yards with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

All three quarterbacks are about a lot more than their impressive statistics.

Mahomes can throw the ball from a number of angles and lead his receiver perfectly when it looks like he has no chance to deliver the ball accurately.

Brees is all about diagnosing the opposing defense and figuring out the weak spot. Once he knows where it is, he will continue to fire away and attack it as the Saints regularly build big leads.

Luck is perhaps the best physical specimen of the group. He has similar arm strength to Mahomes, but he is also capable of running away from defender with his surprising speed. He also has the power to take on tacklers.

Predictions

Mahomes' story is simply too good to pass up. He was able to sit and observe former Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith in 2017, and he took off like a rocket this season.

Brees continues to defeat Father Time, but the 39-year-old slowed to a degree at the end of the season. Voters have to be impressed with Luck, but he may have started to produce just a bit too late to steal the award.

We agree with odds and believe Mahomes will come away with the 2018 regular-season MVP award.