NFL Picks Week 16: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over-Under Lines

Even the experts get things wrong. How many predicted the Philadelphia Eagles thrashing the Rams in Los Angeles last week? Yeah, pretty much no one. Overall, though, consensus predictions are right more often than not.

The trick, of course, is knowing when to go against the general consensus and who to pick when the experts don't agree. We're going to examine the views of experts around the media world—via NFLPickwatch.com—run down the full Week 16 schedule and make our own score predictions for each game. We'll also take a closer look at some of the games where the experts are most split.

First, let's look at the latest odds and over/unders from OddsShark.

Week 16 Odds, Over/Unders and Predictions

Washington Redskins (+10, 37 O/U) at Tennessee Titans: Titans 24, Redskins 16

Baltimore Ravens (+4.5, 43.5 O/U) at Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers 22, Ravens 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7, 47 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 21

New York Giants (+9, 47 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts: Colts 30, Giants 20

Houston Texans (+2.5, 45 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 28, Texans 26.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4, 38.5 O/U) at Miami Dolphins: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 16

Green Bay Packers (+3, 46 O/U) at New York Jets: Packers 26, Jets 22

Cincinnati Bengals (+9, 44.5) at Cleveland Browns: Browns 33, Bengals 30

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 42.5 O/U) at Detroit Lions: Vikings 28, Lions 24

Buffalo Bills (+13, 44.5 O/U) at New England Patriots: Patriots 30, Bills 21

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 43.5 O/U) at Carolina Panthers: Falcons 26, Panthers 23

Chicago Bears (-4, 43 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers: Bears 30, 49ers 16

Los Angeles Rams (-14, 44.5 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals: Rams 28, Cardinals 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5, 53 O/U) at New Orleans Saints: Saints 30, Steelers 23

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 53.5 O/U) at Seattle Seahawks): Seahawks 27, Chiefs 26

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44 O/U) at Oakland Raiders: Broncos 31, Raiders 23

Analyzing the Expert Picks

It's early, and a lot of experts don't have their pick in yet, but we can still find a handful of selections at NFLPickwatch. Of the 16 games, the majority have a clear favorite.

The Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans are picked by 100 percent of experts. The Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints are picked by 90 percent or more.

The Green Bay Packers are picked by 68 percent of the experts.

This leaves four games with a 60-40 split or closer—the Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders matchups. The Eagles, Panthers, Chiefs and Broncos are picked as winners in these contests.

We disagree with the experts on two of them.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

This is the obvious one, as we're relatively sure most of the experts picked before it was announced that Carolina would shut down starting quarterback Cam Newton.

Newton hasn't been the same passer over the last several games because of his shoulder issues. Letting Taylor Heinicke start the final two games makes sense with the Panthers out of contention.

"It was a very good conversation with Cam," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com. "He understood our thinking behind this."

On one hand, Heinicke has a healthier shoulder and may be able to make the throws that Newton has missed as of late. On the other hand, Heinicke has never started an NFL game and has just five career pass attempts. He also doesn't represent the running threat that Newton does.

This means the Falcons are going to have an easier time slowing the Panthers run game. Containing running back Christian McCaffrey will still be a challenge, but Atlanta won't have to defend Heinicke like a second back the way they would Newton.

Because of this, we're going to give the edge to the Falcons. Their defense has been their biggest weakness this season. It won't be as big of a problem against the Heinicke-led Panthers, and Atlanta will pull out a close one.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

The Chiefs and Seahawks both lost close games in Week 15. Seattle lost in overtime, while Kansas City was defeated when the Chargers eschewed overtime in favor of a two-point play. They'll face off in what should be one of the best games of the week.

While the experts are leaning toward Kansas City, we're going the other way. There are a couple of reasons for this. The first is a suspect Chiefs defense that has broken down in losses to the Patriots, Chargers and Rams this season. While the return of safety Eric Berry does help, Kansas City's defense is one of the worst statistical units in the league.

The Chiefs rank 32nd against the pass (282.5 yards per game allowed) and 26th against the run (126.9). Kansas City has allowed opponents to rush for five yards per carry.

It's the vulnerable run defense that leads us into our second reason.

Seattle has had a ton of success running the football over the last couple of months. They've averaged 154.9 yards per game on the ground, most in the NFL. The fact that rookie first-round back Rashaad Penny may miss the game shouldn't hinder the rushing attack much.

With Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Bo Scarborough in the backfield, the Seahawks should be able to control the tempo of the game and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field for long stretches. If Seattle can prevent Mahomes and the Chiefs offense from getting into a rhythm, they should be able to keep the score close.

By keeping the score close and controlling the game, Seattle can ensure it gets the last score and the win.