Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 22, 2018

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 18:  Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers runs to the field before their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on November 18, 2018 in Jacksonville, Florida.  (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Scott Halleran/Getty Images

It doesn't happen often, but the Denver Broncos are 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times they've been lined as home underdogs. The Broncos fall into that split for Sunday afternoon's AFC showdown with the streaking Pittsburgh Steelers at Mile High.


NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.0-18.0 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.


Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers ride a six-game winning streak into this contest after coming from behind to stun the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week 20-16.

Pittsburgh trailed the Jags 16-0 late into the third quarter, then scored the last 20 points of the game to win it on a one-yard Ben Roethlisberger plunge with just five seconds left on the clock.

The Steelers outgained Jacksonville 323-243, so Pittsburgh has now outgained each of its last six opponents and outrushed five of its last six. Also, the Steelers are allowing just 18 points per game during their winning streak.

At 7-2-1 overall, Pittsburgh leads the AFC North by 2.5 games over the Ravens and Bengals and now trails Kansas City by just one game in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff standings.


Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver just snapped a two-game losing skid and, for the moment, saved its season with a 23-22 victory over a hot Chargers team in Los Angeles last week.

The Broncos trailed 6-0 after one quarter and 19-7 in the third but closed the game with a 16-3 run, driving 76 yards in the last two minutes to win it on a Brandon McManus field goal at the buzzer.

Denver got beat along most of the stat sheet but won the turnover battle 2-0, creating a plus-seven point differential. The Broncos have now outgained three of their last four opponents and outrushed three of their last four foes. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five times out.

Of Denver's six losses this season, four have come by a total of 16 points. At 4-6 overall, the Broncos only sit one game back of Baltimore in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.


Smart betting pick

Denver is coming off a big divisional road win last week and might be ripe for a letdown. The Broncos are also just 1-3-1 ATS at home this season. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 4-0-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS on the road this year.

The smart money here sides with the Steelers.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of the Broncos' last nine games.

The total has gone under in 21 of the Steelers' last 27 games on the road.

The Steelers are 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 games on the road.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.