NFL Picks Week 1: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over-Under Lines and Odds

Steve SilvermanSep 4, 2018

The start of the NFL season brings new opportunities for ownership, management, the coaching staff and players. It also brings new opportunities for those who like to invest in pro football.

Let's call it what it is: gambling. However, gambling on pro football is not like wagering on a game of chance. It is somewhat akin to making picks in the stock market because there is information available on every team. That information allows the stock picker—or sports gambler—an opportunity to make an informed choice.

That does not mean the stock pick or the sports wager will turn out successfully, but the opportunity is there to make the correct selection. Those who wager on football can be successful if they hit more than half of their wagers (approximately 53 percent to break even), and we are here to help football prognosticators get on the right track by providing information and opinions.

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In addition to betting on point spreads and over-unders, prop bets are offered throughout the season on players, coaches and outcomes for team victory totals. While prop bets are far more plentiful in the postseason, there are some available in the regular season as well.

Let's start with one concerning the first coach to be fired. Dirk Koetter of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the favorite at plus-250, according to OddsShark. (A bettor who wants to take this wager will risk $100 to earn a profit of $250.)

Mark LoMoglio/Associated Press

Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson is the second choice at plus-350, while Denver's Vance Joseph (plus-650), Miami's Adam Gase (plus-750) and Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis (plus-1600) follow. Nine other coaches are also listed by the website.

While our first inclination is to go with Koetter because the Bucs were a major disappointment last year, and they seem destined to get off to a rough start this year because Jameis Winston faces a three-game suspension. However, there is a chance the Bucs could be competitive once the quarterback returns.

Our choice is Gase because the Dolphins don't appear to have much of a focus or an identity at this point. It may not be the coach's fault, but if quarterback Ryan Tannehill does not get off to a sharp start at quarterback, the Dolphins are in big trouble and the rug will be pulled from under Gase.

Another prop involves first-round draft choices and their production level in the 2018 season. Running back Saquon Barkley was the second pick in this year's draft, and the New York Giants are expecting a huge year from the former Penn State star.

One prop bet offered on the 21-year-old is for the number of rushing touchdowns he will score as a rookie. Both the over and under of eight touchdowns are offered at odds of minus-120. If Barkley rushes for eight TDs, either bet is a push.

However, the belief here is Barkley will be the star running back the Giants are expecting. Look for him to score 10 or more rushing touchdowns and go with the over.

Key Point Spread and Over-Under predictions

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6); 48

Both of these teams are on the upswing, but the Vikings are far more accomplished than the Niners at this point.

Minnesota won the NFC North a year ago, won a memorable playoff game against the New Orleans Saints and got to the NFC Championship where they were beaten soundly by the Philadelphia Eagles.

This year, head coach Mike Zimmer has a team that believes it is capable of going even further, and while the team was strong last year, it did not mean the Vikings were willing to go into the 2018 season with the same one they had last year.

The biggest move came at quarterback as the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to run the offense. The pressure is on the strong-armed and accurate former Redskins quarterback to raise his level of play and get the Vikings off to an impressive start.

Cousins threw for 4,093 yards with 27 touchdowns last season, and he should be able to top 30 TDs with the Vikings.

Wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are both solid receivers who can make game-changing plays, and the Vikings are hoping second-year running back Dalvin Cook can come back to top form following ACL surgery.

The Niners have handed the reins to Jimmy Garoppolo, and he was impressive after he was traded to San Francisco by New England. Winning on the road in Minnesota will be a major challenge, and the QB will need Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin to make big plays from the wide receiver spot.

Running back Matt Breida needs to be productive on the ground after Jerick McKinnon's ACL injury, but he will find it tough to run against Minnesota's powerful defense.

Look for the 49ers to exchange scoring plays with the Vikings throughout the first half, but Minnesota will take over in the second half.

Prediction: Minnesota 30, San Francisco 20

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6); 50.5

The Patriots sit in a familiar role as the AFC champions, and while no team can keep on winning forever, Bill Belichick's charges appear to be headed to yet another AFC East title since the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets don't appear to have the talent or depth to compete with them.

That may not be the case with the Houston Texans, who pushed the Patriots in an early-season game last year before dropping a 36-33 decision.

The Texans have explosive wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins along with emerging quarterback Deshaun Watson. They should be able to move the ball and score against a New England defense that ranked 30th in passing yards allowed per game last season.

Tom Brady should be able to match Watson's production, but the younger quarterback can make one or two big plays with his legs.

This could be the year the Texans turn potential into production. They start the season with a bang.

Prediction: Houston 34, New England 31

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5); 44

These two teams meet on Monday night, and the Jets will start rookie Sam Darnold in an attempt to turn the franchise's quarterback problems around.

The Lions hired former New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as their new head coach. While Patricia is responsible for the entire team in his current position, the Lions need him to give their defense a boost.

Darnold has had a strong summer in winning the starting job for the Jets, but now he is in the business of winning games and improving his team.

The Lions should have a huge advantage at the quarterback position with Matthew Stafford, and that should be enough to allow them to run way with the opener.

Prediction: Detroit 38, New York Jets 20

Week 1 Predictions

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 45.5): Eagles 27-24

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 43.5) at New York Giants: Giants 28-27

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 40.5): Bills 17-16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 49.5): Saints 31-20

Tennessee Titans (-1, 45) at Miami Dolphins: Titans 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 46.5): Bengals 27-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 45.5) at Cleveland Browns: Steelers 31-24

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 47.5): Chargers 37-33

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3, 42): Broncos 10-9

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 42.5): Panthers 34-10