Exposing the Least Clutch MLB Superstars of 2018
It's one thing to be good. It's better to be good and clutch.
Today's the day we wag our fingers at 2018 Major League Baseball stars who aren't matching the latter description.
For this, we're relying on the appropriately named "Clutch." Per the FanGraphs definition, it uses the leverage index (which measures the pressure of various moments) to find "how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment." The higher the number, the better. The lower the number, the worse.
Since FanGraphs has higher standards than Baseball Reference for what constitutes "high" leverage, it's our guide as we seek the 10 least clutch players in MLB. Here are additional ground rules:
- Hitters only, as pitchers tend to do their jobs in isolated leverage environments
- Batting title qualifiers only
- The sample size is limited to the 52 hitters who've been at least 20 percent better than average, according to weighted runs created plus (wRC+)
Exactly how each hitter has been un-clutch will vary. But in general, each has wilted in the face of pressure throughout the 2018 season.
10. Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers
1 of 10
Overall wRC+: 138
Clutch: -0.63
This won't make a lick of sense for anyone who well remembers April 21 and June 22.
On the first of those days, Jesus Aguilar slammed a walk-off home run against the Miami Marlins. On the second against the St. Louis Cardinals, he broke up a no-hitter with a game-tying blast and later won it with another walk-off.
And yet, the splits don't lie about the breakout All-Star's clutch hitting:
- Low Leverage: 133 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 163 wRC+
- High Leverage: 55 wRC+
It hasn't helped that Aguilar has often had his bat taken out of his hands. He's walked in only 8.9 percent of low-leverage plate appearances, 12.3 in medium-leverage and 16.3 in high-leverage.
Still, the 28-year-old has collected only six hits in 40 at-bats in high-leverage situations. That's a .150 batting average that nearly renders him equal to Chris Davis (.147) in such situations.
Of course, it's not worth nothing that Aguilar has been so good in lower-pressure situations. And despite his struggles amid higher pressure, the Milwaukee Brewers have enjoyed one of MLB's most clutch offenses.
9. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
2 of 10
Overall wRC+: 144
Clutch: -0.91
It's nothing new for Freddie Freeman to be one of the best hitters in baseball. He's been a good hitter his whole career, and he's hit an astonishing .313/.407/.567 since the 2016 All-Star break.
But in 2018, he simply hasn't been the same hitter in medium- and high-leverage that he's been in low-leverage.
- Low Leverage: 176 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 104 wRC+
- High Leverage: 88 wRC+
Like with Aguilar, some of this is due to how careful pitchers get around Freeman when the pressure is on. He's typically not much of a walk magnet, yet his BB% has ballooned to 17.1 in high-leverage situations.
When Freeman has swung away, however, he's done little damage. He has 10 hits in 33 at-bats in high-leverage situations, yet only two have gone for extra bases. And those were only doubles.
So it goes for the 28-year-old. Whereas he's slugged better than .500 in low- and medium-leverage for his career, he's slugged only .427 in high-leverage. When the pressure's on, he's really only looking to put the bat on the ball.
8. Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees
3 of 10
Overall wRC+: 127
Clutch: -1.01
The breakout that Aaron Hicks authored in 2017 had a smell of unsustainability, but he's had little trouble picking up where he left off in 2018. In fact, he's arguably the MVP of the New York Yankees.
The Yankees have had a problem with clutch hitting, however, and Hicks hasn't been an exception to the rule:
- Low Leverage: 147 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 110 wRC+
- High Leverage: 86 wRC+
Once again, pitcher timidity is a factor here. Hicks is a patient hitter under normal circumstances, and he becomes even more laser-focused under pressure. He's walked in 21.1 percent of his high-leverage plate appearances.
But as you probably guessed, the 28-year-old hasn't done much actual hitting in high-leverage spots. He's only 5-for-27 on the season, with zero of his 21 home runs.
And yet, Hicks has at least hit the ball well in these situations, with a 52.2 hard-hit percentage that's better than even Matt Carpenter. So, he may be due.
7. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
4 of 10
Overall wRC+: 156
Clutch: -1.11
The good news is that Aaron Judge has taken a step forward in the Clutch department. Indeed, it's the only way he could have gone after registering as the worst clutch hitter ever in 2017.
Nonetheless, the 26-year-old still has a ways to go.
Judge—who hasn't played since July 26 because of a wrist fracture—has been money in low- and medium-leverage situations in 2018. But in high-leverage? Less so:
- Low Leverage: 152 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 182 wRC+
- High Leverage: 79 wRC+
Naturally, walks are an issue here, too. As the leverage has increased, so has Judge's BB%: from 14 percent to 15.2 percent to 23.7 percent.
6. Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels
5 of 10
Overall wRC+: 129
Clutch: -1.13
At first glance, Justin Upton doesn't seem to belong on this list. Per his splits, he's been an above-average hitter regardless of the leverage he's faced this season:
- Low Leverage: 135 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 126 wRC+
- High Leverage: 108 wRC+
In a way, the Los Angeles Angels star has been his best self in high-leverage spots. These situations have produced his best walk-to-strikeout (0.6) ratio and several big hits, including huge homers on April 6 and August 10.
Upton's shortcomings, however, become easier to spot when the focus is narrowed to really high-leverage situations. The 31-year-old has found himself in 21 situations where the leverage index has been higher than 3.0. Only four of those have ended in hits, and 15 of them resulted in his hurting the Angels' win probability.
For what it's worth, Upton isn't the only laggard in an Angels offense who's struggled in the clutch.
Spoiler Alert: nor is he the most famous one.
5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
6 of 10
Overall wRC+: 165
Clutch: -1.24
Speaking of things that don't seem right, check out Jose Ramirez's leverage splits:
- Low Leverage: 177 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 142 wRC+
- High Leverage: 218 wRC+
Ramirez, 25, is a .344 hitter in high-leverage situations, and eight of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases. Those include three home runs, such as this one from June 14.
On average, however, Ramirez has had it pretty easy in 2018. His average leverage index is just 0.87, which ties him with Jackie Bradley Jr. for the lowest among qualified hitters. And like Upton, he looks less clutch as you look higher up the leverage scale.
In 32 situations in which the LI was 2.2 or higher, Ramirez has hurt the Cleveland Indians' win probability 17 times. And since baserunning plays are included, it's notable that three of the 15 exceptions had nothing to do with Ramirez's bat.
4. Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays
7 of 10
Overall wRC+: 127
Clutch: -1.49
Heroes don't get much more unsung than Mallex Smith. The 25-year-old speedster has broken out by hitting .307/.377/.433 for the upstart Tampa Bay Rays.
And yet, Smith has been completely overmatched amid high pressure:
- Low Leverage: 156 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 122 wRC+
- High Leverage: 22 wRC+
No deep dive is necessary to explain these numbers. Smith has struck out at a 22.4 percent clip in high-leverage spots, compared to 18.1 percent in low-leverage and 16.9 percent in medium-leverage. He also has just seven hits in 43 at-bats, including zero for extra bases.
However, some fairness is in order here.
Smith usually bats at the top or the bottom of the Rays' batting order, so it's somewhat fluky that he has as many high-leverage plate appearances (49) as sluggers like Aguilar, Bryce Harper and Nelson Cruz. Moreover, doing damage in pressure situations isn't really his job description. He's more in the business of creating pressure situations with his speed and on-base skills.
3. Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 10
Overall wRC+: 126
Clutch: -1.96
Following a down year in 2017, Yasmani Grandal is back to being what the Los Angeles Dodgers expect: a patient, power-hitting catcher who can frame pitches with the best of 'em.
Hitting in the clutch, however, hasn't been Grandal's forte:
- Low Leverage: 143 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 127 wRC+
- High Leverage: 47 wRC+
Grandal's high-leverage experience hasn't been entirely devoid of bright spots. To wit, he did hit a walk-off blast in extra innings against the Brewers on August 1.
Nonetheless, that's one of only seven hits in 43 at-bats that the 29-year-old has collected in high-leverage situations. And whereas some poor clutch hitters are at least able to maintain strong approaches when the pressure is on, Grandal's has deteriorated. His 16 strikeouts far outweigh his three walks.
In all, he's very much a part of the problem for the least clutch offense in MLB.
2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
9 of 10
Overall wRC+: 192
Clutch: -1.97
Behold, something that Mike Trout doesn't do better than everyone else.
To be fair, the 27-year-old Angels star's splits don't look so bad at first:
- Low Leverage: 224 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 146 wRC+
- High Leverage: 131 wRC+
Moreover, Trout's high-leverage performance is the most extreme example of pitchers giving a dangerous hitter a wide berth. He's walked in 35.1 percent of his high-leverage plate appearances. That's easily the highest rate among all hitters who've taken at least 30 such plate appearances.
Next to that, however, is just a 6-for-24 showing in his high-leverage at-bats. Included within is just one extra-base hit, and it was a double. For that matter, 25 of Trout's 31 total home runs were hit in low-leverage spots.
Still, here's thinking none of this will ultimately disrupt Trout's already-ironclad Hall of Fame case.
1. Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
10 of 10
Overall wRC+: 133
Clutch: -1.97
If Hicks and Judge want to feel better about their clutch performances, they can always look over to Giancarlo Stanton.
Mind you, the 28-year-old slugger has had his moments in 2018. He's clubbed four high-leverage home runs, including a walk-off against the Seattle Mariners on June 20.
Despite those, however, his returns have diminished as the leverage has gotten higher in 2018:
- Low Leverage: 147 wRC+
- Medium Leverage: 130 wRC+
- High Leverage: 68 wRC+
The power is nice, but Stanton is just a .196 hitter with a .250 on-base percentage in high-leverage spots. It doesn't help that he's tended to try to force things, as he has just a 7.1 BB% in high-leverage.
Like Upton and Ramirez, Stanton has also especially struggled in extra-high-leverage situations. Out of the 39 highest-leverage spots he's found himself in, he's hurt the Yankees' win probability in 28 of them. And three of the 11 exceptions were baserunning plays.
On a bright side, Stanton should have a chance to redeem himself in his first-ever postseason trip this October.
Stats are accurate through Monday, August 27, and are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
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