Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

Two unlikely division leaders in the National League will square off Thursday in Milwaukee when the Brewers (51-35) host the Atlanta Braves (49-36) as solid home favorites at the sportsbooks. Despite losing two in a row, the Braves own a 1.5-game lead in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Brewers bring a three-game winning streak and one-game lead in the NL Central into this matchup.

MLB betting line: The Brewers opened as -115 favorites (wager $115 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 6.2-2.4, Braves (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Braves can pay on the MLB lines

Atlanta dropped the last two games of a three-game series against the New York Yankees this week, which is nothing of which to be ashamed. But the Braves did win the series opener 5-3 on Monday in New York as part of a four-game winning streak, and they have been fortunate that the Washington Nationals have lost five in a row to fall below the .500 mark. Now the Philadelphia Phillies are chasing them in second place instead, thanks to a four-game winning streak.

On Thursday, lefty Max Fried (1-2, 2.55 ERA) will make his third start. The 24-year-old has been great in his first two, allowing only one earned run and eight hits in 11.2 innings, with Atlanta winning both of them.

Why the Brewers can pay on the MLB lines

It is crazy to think Milwaukee has the best record in the NL, but it is true. The Brewers are still battling the Chicago Cubs for the division title as the MLB All-Star break draws near, and they hope that 30-year-old righty Jhoulys Chacin (6-3, 3.71) can halt a personal two-game skid in this start.

In fact, the Brewers have dropped each of his last three starts even though he has given up just one run in two of them. Last time out at the Cincinnati Reds, he surrendered one run and four hits in five innings with three walks and five strikeouts in a 12-3 loss. Milwaukee's bullpen imploded by allowing eight runs in the seventh inning and two more in the eighth.

Smart betting pick

The Brewers have not won two straight meetings against the Braves since 2016, going 2-4 in the past six games between the teams, according to the OddsShark MLB database.

However, Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman is listed as questionable with an elbow injury suffered early in Wednesday's game, and his bat would be missed if he cannot play. Regardless, Milwaukee is playing better and will pick up the win.

MLB betting trends

Atlanta is 4-2 in its last six games.

Milwaukee is 5-2 in its last seven games.

Milwaukee is 2-4 in its last six games against Atlanta.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.