Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

First place in the American League East will be on the line in a key three-game series between the division-leading Boston Red Sox (25-9) and red-hot New York Yankees (24-10), who are listed as large home favorites for the opener on Tuesday.

The Red Sox are riding a three-game winning streak and lead the AL East by one game while the Yankees have won six in a row and 15 of 16.

MLB betting line: The Yankees opened as -175 favorites (wager $175 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 6.2-2.4, Yankees (MLB picks on every game).

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Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

Boston took two of three from New York at Fenway Park back in mid-April, outscoring the opposition by a 27-14 margin. The Red Sox have also managed to remain atop the division lately thanks to series wins over the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals despite the Yankees being baseball's hottest team.

Boston will send southpaw Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 6.14 ERA) to the mound off his first victory of the season, allowing three runs and eight hits to the Royals in six innings of a 5-4 win last Wednesday. Last season, Pomeranz went 2-1 with a 4.10 ERA in five starts vs. New York.

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

While Pomeranz is coming off his first win of 2018, Luis Severino (5-1, 2.11) has developed into the ace of the starting rotation for the Yankees and turned in his best performance of the season last time out.

The hard-throwing righty struck out a season-high 10 batters in a complete-game shutout of the defending World Series champion Houston Astros last Wednesday on the road, and he has pitched even better at home. Severino is 3-0 with a sparkling 1.33 ERA in three starts at Yankee Stadium, and opposing batters are hitting only .134 against him there, giving New York a big edge.

Smart betting pick

Severino surrendered a season-high five runs and eight hits to Boston in a 14-1 loss at Fenway on April 10 for his lone loss of the year. He has also split his last two home starts against the Red Sox, giving up 11 runs and 10 hits in just 10.1 innings.

The Yankees have been playing better recently, but there is more value on the underdog. Boston has split the past six meetings at New York, according to the OddsShark MLB Database, so take the division leaders to stay atop the AL East alone.

MLB betting trends

Boston is 4-1 in its last five games.

Boston is 5-1 in its last six games on the road.

Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 games at home against Red Sox.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.