Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 4 Odds, Analysis, NHL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistApril 19, 2018

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 16:  Charlie McAvoy #73 of the Boston Bruins skates against Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game Three of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2018 Stanley Cup Play-offs at the Air Canada Centre on April 16, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
Claus Andersen/Getty Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to even their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series with the Boston Bruins at 2-2 in Game 4 on Thursday in another pick'em matchup.

Toronto grabbed its first win on Monday at home 4-2 after losing the first two games by a combined score of 12-4.


NHL betting line: The Maple Leafs opened as minus-121 favorites (wager $121 to win $100); the total is at six goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.4-2.4, Bruins (NHL picks on every game)

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Why the Bruins can pay on the NHL lines

Boston obviously dominated the first two games and played the third even through the halfway point before Auston Matthews and Patrick Marleau scored the last two goals for the opposition.

The Bruins still managed to fire 42 shots at goalie Frederik Andersen, holding an 18-7 edge in the third period despite failing to score then. As long as they can continue to put pressure on Andersen and do a better job defensively against the Maple Leafs, they will have a great shot to head home with a 3-1 series lead.


Why the Maple Leafs can pay on the NHL lines

Andersen played well in Game 3 after surrendering eight goals on 45 shots through the first two games. His performance will likely be the key again in Game 4, as Boston will no doubt pepper him with a high volume of shots like in Games 1 and 3.

The big difference is that Game 1 was played on the road. Game 3 was at home, where he has performed much better this season overall. The Maple Leafs also need to find a way to score early again, as the team that has scored first has won each game so far.


Smart betting pick

Prior to this series, the Bruins had lost seven of the previous eight meetings, according to the OddsShark NHL Database. While they flexed their muscles in winning the first two games at home, they also looked vulnerable in Game 3 on the road.

Toronto is a good team, especially at the Air Canada Centre, where they went 29-10-2 during the regular season. Only the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins had more home wins in the East, so look for the Maple Leafs to take Game 4.


NHL betting trends

Boston is 0-5 in its last five games on the road.

The total has gone under in seven of Boston's last 10 games on the road.

Toronto is 8-3 in its last 11 games against Boston.


All NHL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.