New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The New York Yankees have high expectations for the 2018 season as they kick it off Thursday by visiting the Toronto Blue Jays as solid road favorites for this American League East matchup.

The Yankees made it all the way to the AL Championship Series in 2017 as a wild-card team, while the Blue Jays went a disappointing 76-86 following three consecutive winning seasons.

MLB betting line: The Yankees opened as minus-140 favorites (wager $140 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.6-2.0, Yankees (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

New York's Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA in 2017) gets the call on Opening Day at Toronto, and he was great on the road a year ago. Severino went 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA in 15 road starts compared to 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA at home.

One of the reasons the Yankees were able to secure a wild-card spot last season was that they enjoyed a lot of success against divisional opponents. They went 44-32 versus AL East foes, which was better than any of the other four teams in the division.

Why the Blue Jays can pay on the MLB lines

The Blue Jays performed surprisingly well in the regular-season series in 2017, going 10-9 in 19 meetings, including 6-4 at home, according to the OddsShark MLB Database.

They will send veteran J.A. Happ to the hill opposite Severino after he went a somewhat respectable 10-11 with a 3.53 ERA in 25 starts last year.

But Happ did pitch better at the Rogers Centre with a lower ERA there (3.36) than on the road (3.70) last season, and he was perfect against New York with a 2-0 mark and 1.54 ERA in two starts. He held the Yankees to a .190 batting average with 11 strikeouts in 11.2 innings.

Smart betting pick

There is definite value on Toronto in this spot, especially when you consider Severino struggled in this matchup last year. He went 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in two starts against the Blue Jays, surrendering seven runs and 14 hits in 12.2 innings.

New York may have an imposing lineup that eventually heats up, but look for Happ to hold the opposition's bats in check and lead Toronto to an Opening Day victory.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone under in four of New York's last five games against Toronto.

New York is 5-14 in its last 19 games on the road against Toronto.

The total has gone under in 17 of New York's last 25 games on the road against Toronto.

All MLB odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.