2018 NFL Mock Draft: Top Prospects and 1st-Round Projections Before Playoffs

How mock drafts look in early January will differ, potentially dramatically, from how they look in the weeks leading up to the real thing. But hey, analyzing team needs and scouting reports is fun at any point in the year, so let's get to it.

Mock Draft

Otto Kitsinger/Associated Press

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

2. New York Giants: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

3. Indianapolis Colts: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston): Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

5. Denver Broncos: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

6. New York Jets: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Connor Williams, OT, Texas

8. Chicago Bears: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

9. San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

10. Oakland Raiders: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

11. Miami Dolphins: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

12. Cincinnati Bengals: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

13. Washington: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

14. Green Bay Packers: Marcus Davenport, DE/OLB, UTSA

15. Arizona Cardinals: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

16. Baltimore Ravens: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

18. Seattle Seahawks: Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU

19. Dallas Cowboys: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

20. Detroit Lions: Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

21. Tennessee Titans: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

22. Buffalo Bills: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

23. Los Angeles Rams: Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

24. Carolina Panthers: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

26. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City): Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

27. Atlanta Falcons: Vita Vea, DT, Washington

28. Minnesota Vikings: Austin Bryant, DE, Clemson

29. Pittsburgh Steelers: Derwin James, S, Florida State

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas

31. New Orleans Saints: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

32. New England Patriots: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Analysis

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

It's a tricky thing, doing a mock draft. It's hard to separate what you would do from what you think a team should do and what you think a team will do. The above is an effort to determine what teams will do, though it's obviously an inexact science.

If I were the Browns, for instance, I would be tempted to draft Saquon Barkley first overall to ensure he wasn't gone by No. 4, and I would wait to see which quarterbacks landed at my doorstep. But I would be perfectly fine building my franchise around Barkley and Baker Mayfield. Perhaps the Cleveland isn't so inclined.

After all, the Browns are reportedly are keen on Josh Allen. Peter King of The MMQB reported the following on Monday:

"So in my rounds on the phone over the weekend, I heard this from a veteran college scout, a man who was one of the first to trumpet Carson Wentz as a high first-rounder during his final season at North Dakota State, on the fate of the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, and on what Cleveland GM John Dorsey might do: 'I believe there is no way Cleveland, at number one, will pass on [Wyoming quarterback] Josh Allen. This is Wentz reincarnated. Allen’s a perfect Dorsey quarterback. Just watch.'"

And Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot spoke with an "accomplished NFL personnel executive" who loves Allen and "said he'd take Allen No. 1 overall and that the Wyoming product compares to Ben Roethlisberger when he came out of Miami University. He said he's never viewed Sam Darnold as a No. 1 pick, and that he likes Allen better than both Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen."

That leaves Rosen for the Giants at No. 2. New York could either groom him for a year behind Eli Manning or trade the veteran to a team with a quarterback need and throw Rosen into the fire. Either way, the Giants shouldn't waste an opportunity to draft Manning's successor.

The Colts at No. 3 will be fascinating. They will assuredly field plenty of calls for teams eager to move up to select a quarterback, but if they stay put, the debate will be between choosing Barkley—who is the best overall player in the draft—or a stud in Bradley Chubb, who fills a bigger need.

I would select Barkley, but I think the Colts will choose to bolster a punchless defense. They drafted Marlon Mack a year ago, though he isn't the long-term answer at running back. Still, it's easier to find a solid running back later in the draft than it is to address defensive end.

Therefore, Cleveland would be free to land Barkley at No. 4. And he would immediately transform the team's offense.

I believe Denver Broncos general manager John Elway will look to address his team's quarterback situation either in free agency (Kirk Cousins) or in a trade (Manning). In that case, he would try to upgrade the team's offensive line with the No. 5 pick. In most years, drafting a guard so high would be considered a reach, but Quenton Nelson is probably the safest pick in the draft outside of Barkley, and Denver desperately needs to address the guard position.

Two players who have probably dropped too far on this mock draft are both safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James. That isn't meant to be a criticism of their talent level but is rather because of how the draft order shook out based on teams drafting for need.

Not every team will make that decision. Fitzpatrick could easily end up as a top-five pick. James seems likely to be off the board in the top 15 to 20 picks. My mock drafts tend to center around team needs, however, so Fitzpatrick and James fell based on that fact alone.

Note: The draft order was created using Tankathon and personal playoff predictions.