Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Two AFC East teams battling for playoff positioning will meet on Sunday when the New England Patriots (11-3) host the Buffalo Bills (8-6) as double-digit home favorites.

The Patriots hope to hold on to the AFC's top seed and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs off a big road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Bills are seeking their first postseason appearance since 1999.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.6-7.8 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo has played New England tough at times despite losing 25 of the past 28 meetings straight up.

The Bills blanked the Patriots 16-0 as 3.5-point road underdogs last year when Jacoby Brissett was under center for the home team.

In that game, Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy rushed for 70 yards on 19 carries and added six receptions for 38 yards with a touchdown. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor also played well with 246 passing yards and one score.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Taylor was knocked out of the last meeting in Week 13 with a knee injury after completing just 9-of-18 passes for 65 yards with one interception, showing that New England has adjusted to his style of play over the past year.

The Patriots, atop the odds to win Super Bowl 52, have been a much different team defensively too since earlier this season, and they held the Bills to their lowest home point total of 2017 three weeks ago.

Central New York native Rob Gronkowski continued his late-season surge last week at Pittsburgh with 168 yards on nine catches following his suspension for a late hit on Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White in the last meeting. The Patriots tight end had nine catches for 147 yards in that game.

Smart pick

Buffalo would love to pull off the upset and move closer to a playoff spot here, but that won't happen at Foxborough. New England is too motivated to win and will not mess around by letting the Bills keep it close.

Look for the Patriots to get off to another fast start and improve upon a 7-1 mark against the spread in their last eight as favorites.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in three of the Bills' last four games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in the early afternoon.

The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.