Week 16 NFL Picks: Prop Bets Advice, Vegas Odds, Spreads and Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs appear to have righted the ship, and they have done it in the nick of time.

The Chiefs lost six of seven games and fell into a first-place tie with the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, and it appeared they'd continue to sink.

However, Kansas City woke up in time to beat the Raiders and Chargers in consecutive games. It now has a two-game lead over the Raiders as well as a one-game lead and the tiebreaker edge over the Chargers.

So, can we assume that the Chiefs are playing at the same level as the team that started the season with five consecutive wins? Not necessarily. While things are going better for Kansas City, it is not the dominant team it appeared to be early in the season.

The Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins Sunday, and they are huge 10-point favorites over the Dolphins, according to OddsShark. That large spread indicates handicappers believe the Chiefs have gotten it together and the Dolphins will offer little resistance.

While the Chiefs played well in two games, they have significant issues, particularly on defense. Kansas City ranks 28th in yards allowed, and one of the big reasons for this is a lack of speed.

Teams can exploit this weakness with big plays, and if the Chiefs think they will have an easy time of it against the Dolphins, they could be making a big mistake.

The Dolphins lost in Week 15 to the Buffalo Bills, but they beat the New England Patriots in Week 14. They have not given up on the season, and while Jay Cutler is an inconsistent quarterback, he is capable of following up a poor game with a better one.

The Dolphins are not going to beat the Chiefs, but they will stay in this game for 60 minutes. It will take a late score for the home team to win, and Miami will cover the spread.

NFL Week 16 Matchups and Odds (all point spreads courtesy of OddsShark)

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-13.5)  | O/U 40.5 

Minnesota (-9) at Green Bay* | O/U 40

Atlanta at New Orleans (-5.5) | O/U 52.5

Buffalo* at New England (-11.5) | O/U 47.5

Cleveland at Chicago (-6.5) | O/U 38

Denver at Washington (-3.5) | O/U 40.5

Detroit (-4.5) at Cincinnati | O/U 43

L.A. Chargers (-6.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 42

L.A. Rams (-6.5) at Tennessee* | O/U 47.5

Miami* at Kansas City (-10) | O/U 43

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-10) | O/U 46.5

Jacksonville (-4.5) at San Francisco* | O/U 42.5

N.Y. Giants at Arizona (-3.5) | O/U 40

Seattle at Dallas (-4.5) | O/U 47

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Houston* | O/U 44

Oakland* at Philadelphia (-9) | O/U 47.5

Picks in bold; *-Will cover spread but fail to win game

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

The Chargers still have a chance to get into the playoffs, and if events break right for them this week, they can make a move toward the playoffs.

If the Chargers can beat the Jets and the Buffalo Bills lose at New England and the Tennessee Titans lose to the Los Angeles Rams, those three teams will have 8-7 records.

That will give the Chargers an excellent chance to get into the playoffs. But before head coach Anthony Lynn and his staff start worrying about the postseason ramifications of each game, they need to take care of business against the Jets.

That means quarterback Philip Rivers has to get back on track after a poor effort (three interceptions) against Kansas City and the Chargers need to win the turnover battle against the Jets. If Rivers does not throw any careless picks, that is likely.

The Jets have been forced to play backup quarterback Bryce Petty as a result of Josh McCown's hand injury and subsequent surgery, and the Chargers can come after Petty with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Those two have combined for 21.5 sacks.

The Chargers are 6.5-point favorites, and we see them winning by double digits.

Prop Bets

Handicappers often are looking for extra wagers, and that's one of the reasons props are popular among bettors.

One of the bets that usually offers nearly immediate gratification (or disappointment) shortly after kickoff is a bet on the individual who will score the first touchdown in a game.

We are looking at the Saturday game between the Colts and the playoff contender Ravens.

Baltimore running back Alex Collins is the 11-2 favorite to score the first touchdown, according to OddsChecker. Danny Woodhead of the Ravens is the second choice at 15-2. Mike Wallace, Ben Watson, Javorius Allen and Chris Moore are all listed at 9-1.

T.Y. Hilton and Frank Gore of the Colts are listed at 14-1 and 16-1 respectively.

We usually like to take a longshot in these first-score prop bets, but a bet on Hilton or Gore does not appear to have much of chance. Wallace has scored 10 touchdowns this season, and we like him to score the first touchdown of the game.