NFL Predictions Week 11: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

It takes bravery and a dash of foolishness to bank on upsets this year when it comes to weekly NFL lines. 

Week 11 isn't any exception a week removed from a schedule lacking any one major surprise. Upsets were a staple of the early going, but teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars picking up wins isn't considered an upset anymore—oddsmakers have adjusted and it's just a way of life. 

This doesn't mean there aren't big payout chances this week; it just means those who like to take a risky approach have to work harder than usual. 

With a handful of games featuring a spread of seven or more points, those picking and choosing their spots could use some reinforcements. Let's provide some below after looking at the entire upcoming slate. 

NFL Week 11 Schedule, Odds

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7) | O/U 44

Arizona (-1.5) at Houston | O/U n/a

Baltimore (-2) at Green Bay | O/U 38

Detroit (-3) at Chicago | O/U 42

Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cleveland | O/U 37.5

Kansas City (-11) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 44.5

L.A. Rams at Minnesota (-2) | O/U 46.5

Tampa Bay at Miami (-3) | O/U 40

Washington at New Orleans (-7.5) | O/U 51

Buffalo at L.A. Chargers (-4) | O/U 43.5

Cincinnati at Denver (-2.5) | O/U 39.5

New England (-7) at Oakland | O/U 52

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas | O/U 48

Atlanta at Seattle (-3) | O/U 45

Detroit (-3) at Chicago

Bettors know what a trap game feels like, and the Chicago Bears welcoming the Detroit Lions to town for a fight in the bitter cold feels like one. 

The Bears have lost two in a row over the past three weeks, yet before that had won two in a row. Painted another way, it's the uneven play most should come to expect from an offense led by a rookie quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky.  

One would expect this inconsistency from a rookie-led team, but not one led by Matthew Stafford. Yet here are the Lions at 5-4, winners of two in a row but losers of three in a row before that. The wins? Wins against Green Bay and Cleveland; the losses to Carolina, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. 

Records aside, this is a trap game for a Lions team that can only run the ball at a 3.4-yards-per-carry clip, a number somehow inflated because Stafford's 18 scrambles have averaged 4.7. He's doing fine as usual through the air, but his defense only has 20 sacks so far. 

These Bears specialize in running the ball with the tandem of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, and the defense boasts two of the best pass-rushing presences in all of football thanks to Akiem Hicks and Leonard Floyd, who have combined for 11.5 sacks. Sprinkle in limited film on Trubisky and one can start to see why this is an upset pick. 

Keep in mind, too, a much worse Bears team stole a win against these Lions at home last year, making it one of their three wins on the season. It's just how these NFC North battles go and Chicago is much better this year, so look for the ground game to pace this one out on a way to a win. 

Prediction: Bears 24, Lions 20

Kansas City (-11) at N.Y. Giants

The New York Giants can't lose by this much, right? 

Eli Manning's Giants are 1-8 and to the point where we're talking about margins of loss as a way to judge whether a line classifies as an upset pick. The team went to San Francisco and coughed up the 49ers' first win of the season by 10 points. Before that, there was a 51-17 laugher with the Los Angeles Rams in town. 

It's enough to encourage bettors to pick the Kansas City Chiefs and move on to something else. But these Chiefs haven't exactly been the most encouraging team in the NFL lately either, having dropped three of their last four. 

The Chiefs have problems getting both units to play well in the same game as of late, which is an issue that has chased the Giants throughout the entire season. 

"Right now everybody is on different pages it feels like," running back Shane Vereen said, according to ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan. 

The saving grace for the Giants at home, though, might be that the Chiefs defense hasn't played well for most of the season. The offense compensated, but a Chiefs defense missing Eric Berry allowed 20 or more points four times through five weeks and 28 or more in two out of the last three losses. 

Eli Manning, even without Odell Beckham Jr., has completed 64.6 percent of his passes this year with 14 touchdowns against six interceptions. If his offensive line can keep him clean, the Giants should be able to keep this one closer than the line suggests as the Chiefs, 3-2 on the road, struggle to pull away. 

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Giants 24

L.A. Rams at Minnesota (-2)

A battle between two of the most surprising teams in the league naturally has a small line with a thin margin of error for bettors. 

The Los Angels Rams have stormed to a 7-2 record after a culture change and an outburst from quarterback Jared Goff, who has 16 touchdowns against four interceptions. The Minnesota Vikings have an identical record while an outstanding coaching job has Case Keenum playing like a top-15 quarterback and softening the impact of Teddy Bridgewater's long-awaited return. 

As they say, something has to give in this one. 

That something might be Keenum. The Rams defense is one capable of exploiting a quarterback situation that hasn't been tested by an elite defense often at all this year. The unit ranks tied for third by allowing only 18 points per game and also only a surrenders 204.1 passing yards (ninth) and 118 rushing yards (24th) per game with 28 sacks, 12 interceptions and 11 forced fumbles. 

On the other side of the football, Goff has looked like a veteran even in the face of collapsing pockets: 

Rolling with the visitors might seem scarier if the Vikings had breakout rookie back Dalvin Cook on the field. But the tandem of Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray isn't scaring any legitimate defense, especially not after the duo rushed for 2.6 yards per carry in a win against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8. 

Bettors might want to jump on the underdog here, which has a better quarterback, running back and defense and has weaved through a tougher schedule, before the line shifts to favoring the Rams. 

Prediction: Rams 23, Vikings 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.