Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Oakland Raiders are just 4-20 over their last 24 games on the East Coast. The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, are 11-0 the last 11 times they've hosted a West Coast team. So the trends seem to favor Miami heading into Sunday night's bout with Oakland in south Florida.

NFL point spread: The Raiders opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.2-16.0 Dolphins (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders halted a four-game losing streak with a thrilling 31-30 victory over Kansas City two weeks ago, but they couldn't back that up and lost last week at Buffalo, 34-14. Oakland grabbed an early 7-0 lead on and played to a tie late into the first half, but a DeAndre Washington fumble went 40 yards the other way for a Buffalo touchdown, and the game slipped away from there.

On the day the Raiders actually outgained the Bills 367-331, but four Oakland turnovers led directly to 13 Buffalo points.

Two weeks ago Oakland trailed Kansas City 30-21 into the fourth quarter, but it scored the final 10 points of the game to steal a much needed victory. The last seven came on a Derek Carr-to-Michael Crabtree touchdown connection with no time left on the clock, and Giorgio Tavecchio kicked the PAT.

At 3-5 the Raiders are only a game and a half out of the sixth spot in the AFC playoff race.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins thought they had something going with three straight wins, but they laid a big egg last Thursday in a 40-0 loss at Baltimore. The best thing to do now is throw that performance in the garbage bin and shoot to rebound this week.

Two weeks ago Miami trailed the New York Jets 28-14 in the fourth quarter but rallied for a 31-28 victory. The Dolphins also came from behind to beat the Atlanta Falcons, 20-17, after a 17-0 deficit. And four weeks ago, they beat Tennessee 16-10.

At 4-3 on the season Miami sits a shade out of sixth, a tiebreaker behind the Jacksonville Jaguars, in the AFC playoff race. Also, despite last week's defeat, Dolphins replacement quarterback Matt Moore is still 15-14 as an NFL starter.

Smart pick

Based on last week's performances, neither team inspires much betting confidence. But Miami gets the check mark on defense, and it's getting points. The smarter choice in this spot is probably the home-dogged Dolphins.

NFL betting trends

The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Dolphins.

The total has gone over in the Raiders' last four games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games at home in November.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.