Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

It's not well-known, but the Minnesota Vikings have been one of the best bets in the NFL over recent seasons.

With wins/covers the past two weeks, Minnesota is 35-15 against the spread over its past 50 games. The Vikings will play as considerable favorites when they clash with the winless Cleveland Browns on Sunday morning U.S. time over in London.

NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 38 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.8-14.6 Vikings. NFL picks on every game.

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Why the Vikings Can Cover the Spread

The Vikings sail a three-game winning streak into Twickenham Stadium following Week 7's 24-16 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. That game was tied at 6-6 deep into the second quarter, but Minnesota used an 18-0 run to take control on its way toward covering as a five-point favorite.

On the day, the Vikings outgained the Ravens 357-208, outrushed Baltimore 169-64 and held a 32-28 advantage in time of possession. Kicker Kai Forbath hit six-for-six on field goals, while the only touchdown the Minnesota defense gave up all day came in meaningless fashion on the last play of the game.

The Vikings have outgained six of their seven opponents this season and outrushed five of them. At 5-2, Minnesota leads the NFC North by a game over a Green Bay Packers team that's without quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Why the Browns Can Cover the Spread

The Browns, on the other hand, lug an eight-game losing streak stretching back the last season into Sunday following their 12-9 overtime loss at home to the Tennessee Titans last time out. However, five of those losses have come by exactly three points, with two in OT.

Cleveland trailed the Titans 9-6 with four minutes left but made a couple of first downs, including one from a 4th-and-seven situation, and kicked a field goal to force overtime. Unfortunately, the Browns came up empty on two possessions and lost on a Tennessee field goal with just two minutes left in OT.

On the day, Cleveland outgained the Titans 284-269. But the Browns also turned the ball over three times, including once on a first down from the Tennessee 28-yard line and once after reaching the Titans' 37. Also, 12 penalties, including three for Titans first downs, didn't help.

Cleveland has outgained four of its previous six opponents. If they could just limit the turnovers, the Browns could keep this one close.

Smart Pick

The Vikings have everything to play for—the Browns not so much. But perhaps a getaway is just what Cleveland needs. Minnesota isn't exactly blowing teams out, and Cleveland is keeping most of its games close. The smarter money here bets the Browns, plus the points.

NFL Betting Trends

The Browns are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games after an ATS win.

The total has gone under in five of the Vikings' past six games in October.

The Vikings are 35-15 ATS in their past 50 games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.