Can David Purcey Rebound in 2010?

Much like we discussed Manny Parra yesterday (click here  to view), David Purcey was a pitcher who was on many people’s radar as a breakout candidate for 2009.  That clearly didn’t come to pass, however.  Besides his 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP at the major league level, he struggled at Triple-A, posting a 4.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Was it bad luck that led to his struggles or was it simply inability?  Before we answer that question, let’s look at his full line from the major leagues last season:

1 Win
48.0 Innings
6.19 ERA
1.75 WHIP
39 Strikeouts (7.31 K/9)
30 Walks (5.63 BB/9)
.333 BABIP

A lot of the hype surrounding Purcey had to do with his strikeout potential, which certainly is there.  A 9.31 strikeout per nine innings rate in 2008 over 117 Triple-A innings does not simply happen by accident.  Still, his minor league career mark was just 8.7, so it was not like he had been posting that type of electric strikeout rate in the lower levels of the minors.

His rate during his 12 starts at the major league level yielded just an 8.0 strikeout rate, so to think that he’s going to simply develop into a strikeout machine would be ill conceived.  While the potential is there, something we all know, it’s hard to imagine it suddenly presenting itself once again.

His major problem is his control.  While he got it in order at Triple-A, walking 2.6 batters per nine innings in ‘08, his career minor league number is 4.3.  That jumps to 5.0 in the majors.  If he cannot consistently throw strikes he is always going to suffer.  It makes it nearly impossible for him to post a good WHIP, unless he is able to discover that strikeout upside.

Before we grow to sour on him, there is reason to believe.  While he’s struggled giving up flyballs in the major leagues (45.3 percent in ‘08 and 49.0 percent in ‘09), he posted a 34.2 percent rate at Triple-A last season.  Over his minor league career, his flyball rate was 38.0 percent.  While that isn’t an elite mark, the less flyballs he allows the less home runs that are likely to be flying over the fences.

He also suffered from a bit of bad luck, with a strand rate of 65.3 percent last season, a number that would have been second worst in the league if he had thrown enough innings to qualify.  Is that something I’m willing to hang my hat on?  No, but there is upside there.

We can sit here and break apart a lot of his numbers looking for positives and negatives, but his value rests solely in his ability to strikeout batters and to not hand out free passes.  If he can do that, he has the potential to be successful.  If he can’t, he’s simply not going to succeed.

He reminds me a bit of Oliver Perez, a left-handed pitcher who struggles with his control but has electric stuff.  We’ve seen Perez post impressive seasons before, once upon a time, so there is reason to believe Purcey can replicate that success in time.  Of course, with Perez, you never exactly know what you are going to get, making him a tough pitcher to trust.

It’s too early to project out his numbers, since we are unsure yet if he is even in contention for a spot in the Blue Jays rotation, or if maybe the team is ready to give up on him and send him to another organization.  Once we get a little bit more insight into his future, I’ll give exact numbers, but at this point he’s way too risky to depend on in the slightest.

What are your thoughts on Purcey?  Could he realize his potential in 2010 or should he simply be ignored?

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