Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

It's almost hard to believe, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are just 3-24 straight up over their last 27 home games, 12-13-2 against the spread. But they won their most recent outing in front of the home crowd, and they've moved to slight favorites to do it again when they host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (line updates and matchup report available here)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.3-15.4 Jaguars (NFL picks on every game available here)

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Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams had won two games in a row but just lost a tough 16-10 decision to Seattle last week. Los Angeles took an early 10-0 lead but came up empty from there, committing five turnovers, including three in Seattle territory, one near the pylon. And kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a 36-yard field goal in a key spot. In the end, Los Angeles reached the Seahawks' 20-yard line but ran out of downs.

For the day, the Rams outgained Seattle 375-241 and outrushed them 100-62. And even with five turnovers they came within 20 yards of winning.

Two weeks ago Los Angeles pulled off a 35-30 upset at Dallas, and just before that they won up at San Francisco 41-39. Running back Todd Gurley ran for 121 and 113 yards in those games. Now he'll go up against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 29th against the run, allowing 146 yards per game.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are coming off their biggest victory in some time—a 30-9 pounding of Pittsburgh at Heinz Field last week. Jacksonville trailed the Steelers 9-7 midway through the third quarter and then used a pair of pick-sixes to take the lead. In the end, running back Leonard Fournette provided the exclamation point, bolting 90 yards for a touchdown, securing the outright victory as eight-point underdogs.

For the day, the Jaguars outrushed Pittsburgh 231-70, which means that even without Fournette's big run Jacksonville doubled up the Steelers in the ground battle. Meanwhile the Jags defense picked off Ben Roethlisberger five times, including those two for scores.

Jacksonville now leads the league in turnover margin at plus-10. The Jags also lead the league in rushing at 165 yards per game. So they'll now go against a Rams defense that ranks 27th against the run, giving up 134 YPG.

Smart pick

Jacksonville just pulled off a nice upset on the road, but in the NFL that often leaves mediocre teams ripe for a letdown. Meanwhile Los Angeles is coming off a game it probably thinks it should have won, and the Rams already own a couple of road wins this year. Smart money here at online gambling sites plays Los Angeles.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Rams' last three games against the Jaguars.

The visiting team is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.

The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.