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Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2017, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2017, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

MLB Playoffs 2017: Odds, TV Schedule, Predictions for Tuesday's NLDS

Steve SilvermanOct 10, 2017

The Chicago Cubs are one game away from advancing the National League Championship Series following their scintillating 2-1 victory over the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field in Game 3 Monday afternoon.

The defending World Series champions will send Jake Arrieta to the mound in Game 4 Tuesday, while the Nationals will counter with Tanner Roark in an attempt to keep their hopes alive.

The Nationals want to bring the series back to Washington for a decisive fifth game. The Nationals have never won a postseason series, and the franchise hasn't had any playoff success since they were the Montreal Expos.

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That team won a National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies in 1981. The Expos were subsequently eliminated by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Roark was 13-11 with a 4.67 earned-run average this season, but he was a much more effective pitcher in the second half of the year. He had a 3.90 ERA after the All-Star break, and he appeared to have better command and more confidence in his pitches.

Arrieta was 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA, but he was pushed back in the rotation because of a right hamstring injury. The Nationals tagged him for a loss June 27 when he gave up five earned runs along with six hits and six walks in one of his most ineffective starts of the season.

The game is scheduled to begin at 5:38 p.m. and will be televised by TBS. The Cubs are minus-148 favorites to close the series out in Game 4 according to OddsShark, while the Nationals are plus-138 underdogs to force a decisive Game 5 Thursday at Nationals Park.

The Cubs were trailing the Nationals 1-0 in the bottom of the seventh inning in Game 3, and they had been unable to get a single hit off Washington ace Max Scherzer. However, when Ben Zobrist broke up the no-hitter with a double after one out in the seventh inning, Washington manager Dusty Baker pulled Scherzer in favor of reliever Sammy Solis.

Pinch-hitter Albert Almora followed with a single that drove in Zobrist with the tying run.

Anthony Rizzo drove home pinch-runner Leonys Martin with the go-ahead run in the bottom of the eighth inning on a two-out bloop single to center field.

Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman told Carrie Muskat and Jamal Collier of MLB.com that the 2-1 deficit is not a big issue for the Nationals.

"We've won two games in a row before. It's not a record," Zimmerman said. "It's not an ideal situation to be in; obviously, I'd rather be up 2-1. It's playoff baseball. We'll come back out tomorrow, play a game, hopefully come out on top and go home and have an exciting Game 5."

Prediction

The Nationals have had a sensational season, but they are once again in a win-or-go-home situation. The pitching matchup between Roark and Arrieta would seem to favor the Cubs if the Chicago pitcher is healthy.

However, it's not always easy to come back from hamstring difficulties, and Arrieta may not be at full strength.

The combination of the injury and a desperate Washington team should help the visitors. Look for the Nationals to find a way to defeat the defending World Series champions and force a fifth game.

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