Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Over the last three-plus seasons, the Tennessee Titans are just 8-18 both straight up and against the spread on the road. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are only 13-11 SU and 9-15 ATS at home over that same span.

Two teams coming off terrible performances last week hook up when the Titans visit the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: The Titans opened as three-point favorites; the total was early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.4-22.3 Dolphins (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans had won and covered two games in a row, but they are now looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 57-14 loss at Houston last week.

Tennessee fell down to the Texans 21-0 early but pulled within 24-14 late in the first half. However, they then lost quarterback Marcus Mariota to injury in the third quarter and let things slip away from there.

The Titans did little right last week and should probably just burn or erase any evidence of the crime.

Instead, Tennessee will try to replicate its performances of the previous two weeks, a 37-16 victory over Jacksonville and a 33-27 victory over Seattle.

The Titans outrushed both the Jaguars and Seahawks by an average margin of 187-84, won time of possession for both games and committed zero turnovers.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami is also trying to regroup following two straight losses, including a miserable 20-0 defeat against New Orleans last week in London.

The Dolphins had a chance to take an early lead, reaching the Saints' four-yard line, but quarterback Jay Cutler threw an interception in the end zone.

Miami only trailed 3-0 at the half and 10-0 through three quarters, but they just couldn't get anything going offensively and eventually faded.

As with Tennessee, Miami might be wise to forget about last week's performance—and the previous week's 20-6 loss to the New York Jets as well.

The Dolphins opened this season with a 19-17 victory over the Chargers out in Los Angeles. Miami won the ground battle that day 111-44 and held a 33/27 advantage in time of possession, taking that game outright as a three-point dog.

Smart pick

The team that wins the ground battle and makes the fewest mistakes should win this game and cover this spread, and that team is most likely to be Tennessee.

Even if Mariota can't go Sunday, Matt Cassel is capable of handing the ball off to DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.

Meanwhile, Miami looks like a lost cause at the moment and playing at home might not help. The smarter money in this spot at sports betting sites takes the Titans.

NFL betting trends

The Titans are 3-1 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Dolphins.

The total has gone under in 10 of the Titans' last 12 games on the road against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.