Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2017

CARSON, CA - SEPTEMBER 24: Quarterback Alex Smith #11 of the Kansas City Chiefs drops back to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at StubHub Center on September 24, 2017 in Carson, California. The Chiefs defeated the Chargers 24-10. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
Jeff Gross/Getty Images

Including their upset victory at New England to open this season, the Kansas City Chiefs own an eight-game winning streak on the road, both straight up and against the spread. But to make it nine in a row, they'll have to cool off a hot rookie quarterback when they visit Houston to take on Deshaun Watson and his Texans on Sunday night.

     

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.4-20.0 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City stands as the last remaining undefeated team in the league, after rallying to beat Washington on Monday night 29-20. The Chiefs spotted the Redskins a 10-0 head start but battled back and won it on rookie Harrison Butker's third field goal of the night with four seconds left. Then, much to the delight of Kansas City's financial backers, linebacker Justin Houston picked up a fumble on Washington's attempt at a multi-lateral miracle and returned it 13 yards for a touchdown and the cover of a six-point spread.

On the night, the Chiefs outgained the Redskins 429-331, outrushed them 168-111 and won time of possession by a 37/23 margin. Quarterback Alex Smith continued his excellent play, throwing for 293 yards and one touchdown while running for 56 yards and another score, rookie running back Kareem Hunt ran 21 times for 101 yards and tight end Travis Kelce caught seven balls for 111 yards and a touchdown.

Kansas City is also 4-0 ATS this season because it beat the Patriots outright as an eight-point dog and covered as a favorite of four and three points over Philadelphia and the Chargers, respectively.

     

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston is 2-2, and could be 3-1, after trouncing Tennessee last week 57-14. Playing as short home dogs with Watson at quarterback, the Texans burst out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter. Later, after allowing the Titans to get within 24-14, Houston then piled on the final 33 points of the game.

For the day, the Texans outgained Tennessee 445-195, outrushed the Titans 173-86, dominated time of possession by a 40/20 margin and won the turnover battle 5-1. Watson connected on 25 of 34 throws for 283 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another, while wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins caught 10 balls for 107 yards and one score.

Meanwhile, the Houston defense held Tennessee to just nine first downs and scored a touchdown itself on a fourth-quarter pick-six by rookie linebacker Dylan Cole.

Two weeks ago, the Texans, as two-touchdown underdogs, led the Patriots in Foxboro 33-28 with two minutes to go but let them off the hook twice on third-and-long and lost 36-33.

     

Smart pick

Houston is suddenly a hot item with Watson, while Kansas City is on the road on a short week. Smart money here takes the Texans on the NFL lines.

      

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in three of the Chiefs' last four games against the Texans.

The Texans are 3-21-1 ATS in their last 25 games at night.

The Chiefs are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road.

     

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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