NFL Upset Pick of the Week: Texans over Bengals

While the 4-1 Cincinnati Bengals are on a roll, the Houston Texans are still searching for some consistency. The Texans are two yards away from being 4-1 but are a disappointing 2-3 heading into week 6 action.

Cincinnati is a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday’s AFC matchup but Houston could be catching the Bengals at just the right time to pull an upset.

1.) A resilient team 

The Texans have been able to follow up each of their previous two defeats with a victory this season. The young team has shown an ability to constantly fight despite some obstacles. The club has rallied from slow starts in each of the last two years to finish 8-8. With a strong desire to post the first winning season in franchise history, the Houston squad should continue to battle in every game this season.

2.) Almost 4-1

Both teams have been involved in some thrilling contests this season. All five of Cincinnati’s games have been decided by seven points or less while three of Houston’s games have come down to the final minutes. Against Jacksonville in week 3, the Texans fumbled at the Jaguars one-yard-line as they were going in for the tying score. Last week, Houston was stopped at the one again in the final minute at Arizona with a chance to tie the game.

3.) The passing game

The Texans will bring one of the NFL’s top passing games to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. Houston is 5th in the league in passing offense while the Bengals are a mediocre 22nd in the NFL in passing defense. Houston’s Matt Schaub is quietly developing into one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. He is ninth in the league in quarterback rating while ranking in a tie for second in touchdown passes with ten. Wideout Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the league after grabbing 115 receptions a year ago. He is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions this season with four.

4.) Last year’s victory

The Texans should have some extra confidence in this matchup after last season’s 35-6 rout of the Bengals. While Cincinnati has clearly improved from a year ago, Houston should be able to attack the Bengals again this season. Schaub had three touchdown passes in last year’s contest while Johnson grabbed 11 catches. The defense stepped up to force three turnovers in the victory.

5.) A flat spot for Bengals

Cincinnati’s emotional tank could be near empty after three straight divisional games that have gone to the wire. After the Houston game, the Bengals will face the Bears, Ravens and Steelers. So, it is very possible that Cincinnati could be a little flat to play a non-marquee opponent, like the Texans, at home. While Houston desperately needs to win to stay in playoff contention, the Bengals will at least be tied for first place with a defeat. The sense of urgency for Houston could be the difference in a battle of two teams that are pretty evenly matched. 

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