Heat 2017-18 Schedule: Top Games, Championship Odds and Record Predictions
The Miami Heat missed the playoffs for the second time in three years in 2016-17, but as many Eastern Conference teams embark on long-term rebuilds, the Heat are poised to get back to the postseason in 2017-18.
Heat fans likely feel a sense of disappointment regarding the offseason. Miami was unable to sign Gordon Hayward or acquire Jimmy Butler or Paul George. Kelly Olynyk was the Heat's biggest outside addition, and they re-signed the pair of Dion Waiters and James Johnson, representing the remainder of their big moves.
"Being able to secure the services of a 26-year-old Olynyk, a 26-year-old Dion, a young 30 in JJ, who I think is going to be a key to our core, I thought was important," Heat president Pat Riley said in July, per the Miami Herald's Manny Navarro. "These guys believe in themselves. They believe in the 30-11 record in the second half of the season. We'll see if that was smoke and mirrors or if it's reality."
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Miami doesn't have the talent to dethrone the Cleveland Cavaliers as conference champions, nor is it likely to leapfrog the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors or Washington Wizards.
Still, the Heat are in a better position than they were a year ago, which can't be said of all of their conference rivals.
Below is a look at the most intriguing games ahead for the Heat and an overview for their upcoming season.
2017-18 Details
Season Opener: Wednesday, Oct. 18, at the Orlando Magic (7 p.m. ET)
Championship Odds: 150-1 (via OddsShark)
Full Schedule: NBA.com
Top Matchups
First Matchup: Friday, Feb. 2, at 8 p.m. ET
Of the seven teams that failed to reach the playoffs in the East, the Heat and Philadelphia 76ers have arguably the best odds of climbing inside the top eight.
Simply by getting Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons back healthy, the Sixers were poised for a healthy improvement in 2017-18. Then they traded for the No. 1 pick to select Markelle Fultz and signed JJ Redick to a one-year, $23 million deal.
The backcourt was one of Philadelphia's biggest issues coming into the summer. The team added a veteran 2-guard who provides three-point shooting and leadership and a young point guard ties the entire process together.
As Basketball Insiders' Tommy Beer argued, the 76ers are more than just a team stacked with promising stars:
In general, the Sixers should be a lot of fun to watch and will likely be a League Pass team for NBA diehards.
For the Heat, Philadelphia is likely to be a direct rival for a playoff spot, adding some stakes to their encounters this year.
First Matchup: Sunday, Jan. 14, at 1 p.m. ET
Barring a surprise, the top four in the East will probably look roughly the same, with the Cavaliers, Wizards, Celtics and Raptors leading the pack in some order. The battle for the fifth seed will be much more intriguing.
The Milwaukee Bucks tied for the sixth-best record in the East after going 42-40, and they're due for a few more victories in 2017-18. In addition the continued improvement of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker, the Bucks will benefit from having Khris Middleton for a full season.
Milwaukee represents the ceiling for the Heat this season. If everything breaks right for Miami, then the team is almost certainly looking at the fifth or sixth seed, which would put the Heat and Bucks in direct competition with one another.
The difference between the fifth and sixth seed may not seem like much, but it could be extremely important if the Cavs sleepwalk through the second half of the regular season and fall out of the top spot. Should that happen, the fifth seed would avoid seeing Cleveland until the conference finals.
Beyond their jostling for postseason seeding, the Bucks are a solid barometer for the Heat's overall progress.
Like Miami, Milwaukee's best days are ahead, but the team is built to contend right now. The Bucks are seemingly further along since they have Antetokounmpo—one of the NBA's brightest young talents. The Heat can show that's not the case if they repeat the 3-1 record they posted against Milwaukee in 2016-17.
Record Prediction
By standing pat, the Heat have positioned themselves well to challenge for a playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers lost their best players, while the Atlanta Hawks seemingly signaled they are shifting their focus to the long term by trading Dwight Howard to the Charlotte Hornets. Atlanta also saw Paul Millsap leave to sign with the Denver Nuggets.
Then there are the Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic, who are all in various stages of prolonged rebuilding plans.
Whereas teams in the Western Conference are in an arms race with the Golden State Warriors, it's basically a race to the bottom in the East.
That's good news for the Heat's postseason aspirations.
Finishing eighth should be the bare minimum for Miami when it comes to calling the 2017-18 season a success or failure. The performance of Waiters in particular will determine how much better the Heat can do.
Waiters averaged 15.8 points per game and shot 39.5 percent from beyond the arc in his first year with the team. The 25-year-old finally fulfilled some of the potential he showed with the Cavaliers.
If Waiters can go a step further and build a possible All-Star candidacy, then the Heat could approach the high 40s in terms of wins. As Riley noted, Miami had a 30-11 record in the second half of last season.
Should Waiters' progress stagnate a bit, the mid-to-low 40s will be a more realistic total.
Based on the entirety of his NBA career, Heat fans should be cautiously optimistic about whether Waiters can show significant improvement.
Prediction: 43-39
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