Despite Chris Sale's Dominance, Red Sox Will Regret Trading Moncada, Kopech

Is it possible for a blockbuster trade to be both a major win and a slowly developing defeat?

From looking at the Chris Sale trade, apparently yes.

It's been six months since the Boston Red Sox acquired Sale from the Chicago White Sox for a package headlined by two top prospects: phenom infielder Yoan Moncada and flame-throwing right-hander Michael Kopech. As Sale prepares to return to Guaranteed Rate Field for the first time Tuesday, the Red Sox can rest easy knowing that he hasn't done anything to make the trade look bad.

Through 10 starts, the stick-like left-hander has a 2.34 ERA and MLB-best marks in strikeouts (101) and WHIP (0.81). The only disappointment so far is that his streak of consecutive starts with at least 10 strikeouts ended at eight on May 24.

There's been talk around Boston that Sale is like the next coming of Pedro Martinez. Bold stuff. Yet the Hall of Famer seems to be on the same page:

Boston will get to keep enjoying Sale's excellence for a while. After 2017, the Red Sox have options on his contract for 2018 and 2019, at reasonable prices to boot.

But while Sale's dominance is all well and good, and his controllability is as attractive as ever, that covers only two key justifications the Red Sox had for paying the huge price for him.

The others? They're not going so well.

The trade was supposed to elevate Boston's starting pitching from good (it ranked eighth in ERA in 2016) to great. With Sale joining Cy Young winners Rick Porcello and David Price, who could doubt that it would?

"It makes a huge difference," said AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts in February, according to Gabe Lacques of USA Today. "Knowing you can go out three out of five days and know you're going to get a win."

In theory, yes. But in reality, the idea soon fell apart.

Price's left arm, which is valued at $217 million, started barking in late February and remains a question going into his season debut Monday.

For one, he's a 31-year-old with over 1,700 major league innings under his belt. Additionally, he had already been showing signs of decline in the form of reduced velocity and mediocre results in 2016. He also got lit up in both of the rehab starts he made for Triple-A Pawtucket.

"There's some question, given the reviews of talent evaluators who saw him pitch Wednesday night, of whether Price is being rushed back to the mound," wrote ESPN.com's Scott Lauber.

Michael Ivins/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

In the meantime, Porcello has reverted from an ace back to his old mid-rotation self.

He has a 4.21 ERA through 11 starts, in which he's served up an MLB-high 88 hits. Some evidence suggests he's been bitten by bad luck. But at the same time, standby metrics like Fielding Independent Pitching and xFIP reveal that Porcello underperforming his peripherals is less of a bug and more of a feature.

All of this raises serious doubt about whether there's any untapped potential left in a Red Sox rotation that only ranks 12th in ERA. If there isn't, improving on their modest 89-win pace and climbing to the top of the AL East will be tall orders.

Which leads to another justification for the Sale trade that is now crumbling.

Consider the state of the AL East at the time. The Baltimore Orioles didn't figure to make major upgrades to an 89-win roster. The Toronto Blue Jays were about to lose Edwin Encarnacion. The New York Yankees were rebuilding.

Although they were already the reigning division champs, this presented an opportunity for the Red Sox to seize even more power. Little did they know that the Yankees would stake their own claim.

With a 29-18 record that puts them atop the AL East, the Yankees have been far better than expected. And no, they haven't overachieved.

Going into Monday, Baseball Reference assigned the Yankees zero "luck" wins, while FanGraphs' BaseRuns formula identified them as the AL's best team.

Team	Actual W-L%	BaseRuns W-L%
Yankees	0.617	0.640
Astros	0.686	0.595
Rays	0.509	0.587
Indians	0.521	0.556
Red Sox	0.551	0.537

Some of the Yankees' veterans are having resurgent years, but just as important are the better-than-expected performances they've gotten from youngsters. Aaron Judge has played like an MVP. Luis Severino has looked like a budding ace. Jordan Montgomery has been a surprise success story. 

And this is just the beginning. 

"In my mind, everyone from Double-A on up is eligible for consideration in the big league if we have any needs," general manager Brian Cashman said Thursday, per Dan Martin of the New York Daily News.

That covers a lengthy list of top prospects. Shortstop Gleyber Torres, MLB.com's No. 2 prospect, is at Triple-A along with outfielder Clint Frazier (No. 19) and right-hander Chance Adams (No. 99). At Double-A is left-hander Justus Sheffield (No. 71).

When the Red Sox traded for Sale, they could have concluded they wouldn't have to worry about the Yankees until 2018 or maybe even 2019. Unfortunately for them, fate has twisted in a cruel way, as the Yankees are an immediate threat that will only get more dangerous.

Speaking of prospects, Moncada and Kopech are doing just fine, thank you.

Ron Vesely/Getty Images

Both went to Chicago as extremely talented yet flawed players. Moncada had the body of a linebacker and the power and speed to match, but he also came with with a bad swing-and-miss habit and no clear fit on defense. Kopech had an arm capable of reaching 105 mph but a questionable ability to throw strikes.

Fast forward to now, and both are erasing their question marks. 

Moncada, now baseball's No. 1 prospect for MLB.com and Baseball America, has a .903 OPS at Triple-A Charlotte. His strikeout rate of 28.8 percent is high, but it's lower than what he had at Double-A in 2016. And after moving all over in Boston's system, he's benefiting from playing strictly at second base.

"He's been getting better at that, focusing on each and every play no matter what the score is," said Mark Grudzielanek, the former second baseman and current Charlotte manager, per Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. "But mechanically, he has the ability where the sky is the limit with him."

Kopech, meanwhile, has a 2.66 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 47.1 innings for Double-A Birmingham. And while he also has 27 walks, things are looking up in that department.

"He's throwing more strikes and walking fewer in May and there are some rumblings among scouts that he might be shifting some perspectives," reported Mark Anderson at Baseball Prospectus.

When Boston traded Moncada and Kopech to the White Sox, there was always a chance they could emerge as a future MVP and a future Cy Young winner. That these odds have only increased, however, isn't a good look for the Red Sox.

Even in retrospect, it's hard to scold the Red Sox for selling the farm for Sale. The price tag was befitting of his talent, and the other chances they took were indeed worth taking.

But the dominoes aren't falling as the Red Sox hoped they would. So long as that continues, the Sale trade will gradually transform from one they'd do again into one they'd like to have back.

Data courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.