Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: Game 7 Odds, Analysis, NHL Betting Pick

For the second straight series, the Pittsburgh Penguins will be playing a deciding Game 7, this time against the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference Final as big home favorites on Thursday.

The defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins ousted the Washington Capitals 2-0 in Game 7 on the road to advance past the second round after losing three of the previous four in that series.

Betting line: The Penguins opened as -225 favorites (wager $225 to win $100); the total is at five goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report)

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.5-1.9, Penguins (NHL picks on every game)

Why the Senators can pay on the NHL lines

The pressure in a Game 7 is clearly on the home team, especially one favored by as much as Pittsburgh is in this spot. Ottawa is not just happy to be here with one more victory translating to a Stanley Cup appearance, but rebounding from a dismal 7-0 loss in Game 5 with a 2-1 win in Game 6 has proved a lot already.

The Senators upset the Penguins in Game 1 on the road, and they are 5-4 away from home in the playoffs overall. In fact, they clinched series wins in each of the previous two rounds on the road. So Ottawa knows what it takes to send the opposing fans home disappointed.

Why the Penguins can pay on the NHL lines

Pittsburgh could have won Game 6 to move on to the championship round for the second year in a row, but the tiebreaking goal by Mike Hoffman in the third period ended up being the difference. That along with a brilliant performance between the pipes from Senators goaltender Craig Anderson, who stopped 45 shots from the Penguins.

Still, Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray played well in defeat with 28 saves, and he earned a shutout in his last home game, which was also his first start at PPG Paints Arena this postseason. Home ice looks to be a huge edge for Murray and the Pens.

Smart betting pick

Anderson was pulled early in his last Pittsburgh appearance after giving up four goals on 14 shots. He bounced back nicely at home, although this will be a much bigger challenge for him. Murray will be much more comfortable at home, where he was 8-2 last year as a rookie in helping lead the Pens to the Stanley Cup.

Former starting netminder Marc-Andre Fleury shut out the Caps in Game 7 on the road, and his replacement Murray will have a great opportunity to blank the Sens for the second consecutive time at home in Game 7 and pay out on the Vegas lines.

NHL betting trends

Ottawa is 2-4 in its last six games on the road.

Ottawa is 1-6 in its last seven games on the road against Pittsburgh.

The total has gone under in six of Pittsburgh's last nine games at home against Ottawa.

All NHL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.