AFL Round 9 Betting Preview: Game Odds, Trends, Analysis for Week Ahead

Does history play any role in your betting on AFL football? Well, if it does, that practice will be put to the test during Round 9, with four of the eight matches featuring favorites who have not beaten their opposition in a very long time.

On Friday night, the Western Bulldogs start as $1.84 AUD favorites against Geelong, according to AustralianGambling.com.au, despite having lost their last 10 against the Cats. On Saturday, St Kilda are $1.70 against Sydney despite having been defeated the past six times the teams have met.

On Saturday night, Collingwood go into their match against Hawthorn at $1.54 despite a nine-match losing streak, and Melbourne are $1.50 against North Melbourne having not beaten the Kangaroos in their most recent 15 attempts.

If you go on history, then all four of those matches are vulnerable to upsets, and it's not as if upsets are unusual in 2017. Of the 64 games completed so far this season, 28 have seen the outsider win.

Added to the Cats' hopes of causing the boil-over at Kardinia Park is the fact the Dogs haven't won in Geelong since 2003. The home side have been backed this week and are now into $1.97, despite losing their past three matches.

In the St Kilda-Sydney game, it has been the Saints who have been backed, with the Swans drifting from $2.04 to $2.15 as the week has progressed. St Kilda have won three straight and in an open year are being talked up as a genuine premiership hope.

The premiership is the furthest thing from Collingwood and Hawthorn's minds as they occupy 17th and 14th, respectively, on the AFL ladder.

Collingwood showed vast improvement to almost beat premiership favorites Greater Western Sydney last week and on that effort, and the fact Hawthorn are missing half their side to injury, deserve to be favorites. The $1.54 seems a little short, with the Hawks at $2.50.

The North Melbourne-Melbourne match is an intriguing one. The Kangaroos beat the top team on the ladder (Adelaide) two weeks ago and then lost to the bottom side (Sydney) in successive weeks. Punters are cold on them, and they are $2.60. Melbourne come off a terrific 41-point win over the Crows in Adelaide and look to be putting things together after a patchy start to the season.

In the other matches, the Giants, given a scare by the Magpies last week, are $1.22 favorites to beat the out-of-form Tigers ($4.35) when they meet in Sydney on Saturday.

Brisbane are $8.50 outsiders when they host Adelaide ($1.07), who will be desperate to snap their two-match losing streak.

Fresh off an upset win over Geelong, Essendon ($2.45) host West Coast ($1.55) at Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon. And over in Perth, Fremantle, who have won five of their past six, are $1.30 to continue that run against Carlton, who are $3.53.