Matt Harvey's FA Value Has Cratered to $10M, but 'He's Going to Be Elite' Again

NEW YORK — Matt Harvey was young and strong and pitching as well as anyone in the summer of 2013, so when he matter-of-factly announced in a Men's Journal feature that he was just waiting for his $200 million contract, the number itself didn't sound outrageous.

More than a few eyes rolled at the brashness it takes to say something like that when you've spent less than a year in the major leagues, but when you're 7-1 with a 2.00 ERA and about to start the All-Star Game in your home ballpark, you can be brash.

You can own the town, as long as you also own your limits. And in that same Men's Journal story, Harvey suggested he did.

"I have a 48-hour rule," Harvey said then. "No drinking two days before a start. But those other days? Yes, I'm gonna go out. If I was locked up in my house all week, I don't know what I'd be like on the baseball field."

Some rules, apparently, are just meant to be broken. Some pitchers, too, because the four years since have taken as much toll on his body as the last four days have taken on his reputation.

Two surgeries and too many nights out later, Harvey isn't a $200 million pitcher today. In fact, several current and former major league executives surveyed Wednesday told Bleacher Report he'd get only a one-year contract for $10-15 million if he were a free agent right now.

"Some teams wouldn't touch him," one American League scout said.

This isn't only about Harvey's latest escapade, his night out on the town that violated his own 48-hour rule and his no-show at Citi Field last Saturday that caused the New York Mets to suspend him without pay for three days. It is about that, but it's also the 5.14 ERA he'll take to the mound when he makes his first post-suspension start Friday night in Milwaukee.

He's had Tommy John surgery and he's had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, and while he came back from the first to pitch the Mets into the 2015 World Series (and very nearly to a Game 5 win), he still isn't all the way back from the second. He's a pitcher who can still light up radar guns (his best fastball was clocked at 98.63 mph in his latest start, according to BrooksBaseball.net), but he hasn't yet turned ace-like stuff into ace-like results.

There's no way to know how much this is just a natural progression back from injury or whether it's related to whatever demons drove Harvey to that celebrity nightclub in Manhattan's Meatpacking District last week. For what it's worth, the New York Post's latest celebrity update on Harvey said he was distraught over seeing one-time companion Adriana Lima frolicking with her former boyfriend, New England Patriots receiver Julian Edelman.

As Mets manager Terry Collins said in a Tuesday press conference, Harvey does need to make baseball his top priority right now. He needs to understand how far his status has fallen, but also how much of an opportunity he still has to recapture it.

One of the same executives who said Harvey might command only a one-year, $10 million deal today said he could see the right-hander building that up to maybe a Jordan Zimmermann-type deal (five years, $110 million) by the end of next season, when he can become a free agent. It's not $200 million, but it's also just a guess.

Pitching is scarce, and pitchers with 99 mph fastballs are scarcer still. Even if some teams would never touch Harvey after the things he has done, others would have a hard time ignoring him if he stays healthy and doesn't pull any more no-shows.

"People forget fast," another of the executives said.

They'll only forget if he performs on the mound, beginning Friday night. Some who know him believe it can happen.

"I think with time and effort, he's going to be back to being Matt Harvey," Mets catcher Rene Rivera said Wednesday.

Can be?

"I think he will be," Rivera said. "He's going to be an elite pitcher again, but it's just going to take some time."

Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images

It's not an outrageous thought, any more than Harvey was being outrageous with his $200 million contract talk four years ago.

Harvey's ERA is high, but the fastball is coming back, the changeup is still elite and the slider can be, too. They haven't all fit together yet and there hasn't been consistency, but if you can ignore all the outside distractions, you can see potential there.

The Mets have to hope Harvey can avoid his outside distractions, and that potential turns to results. They're not going to trade him anytime soon (not with his value so low), and suggestions that they should send him to the minor leagues make little-to-no sense.

While they hope of getting Steven Matz back by the end of the month and dream of Noah Syndergaard returning and reclaiming his own elite status sometime after the All-Star break, this is a team that started Rafael Montero, Adam Wilk and Tommy Milone for half of the six-game homestand that ended Wednesday.

Despite all their injuries and other issues, the Mets are still very much a potential playoff team, and Harvey can very much help them get there.

Imagine what he'll be worth if he does. It may not be $200 million, but it sure would be a lot more than $10 million.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.